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Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (AHWSF) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · US · Market cap $863M

AW Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company logo Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company AHWSF · US
Price$8.10
Fair Value$6.87
Upside-15.2%
Quality41/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 4.7% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/13)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: Low Range $5.77 – $7.96 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 4 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $6.86 to $6.87 (+0.1%) since Jun 25, 2026.

Below-average quality, and screening another 15% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$8.10 $6.21 Fair Value $6.87 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.21 – $8.10 · fair‑value band $5.77 – $7.96 · the $8.10 price screens above the $6.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (AHWSF) currently trades at $8.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.87, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company generated revenue of $365M at a net margin of 4.7%. Revenue declined 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $265M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $5.77 (bear case) to $7.96 (bull case); at $8.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -15%, AHWSF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM $0.5500 $0.5900 $0.6500 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.5500 $0.6600 $0.7900 61
EV/EBITDA $5.48 $6.44 $7.40 54
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.5500 $0.5900 $0.6500 70
DDM Multi-Stage $0.5500 $0.6600 $0.7900 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $5.48 $6.44 $7.40 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.78 $5.07 $7.56 50

Widest divergence: Multiples ($6.44) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5900). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $365M
Revenue growth (YoY) -3.6%
Net margin 4.7%
Return on equity 2.1%
Free cash flow −$56.0M FY2025
P/E ratio 15.6
More key figures
Operating margin 4.6%
EPS (TTM) $0.5200
EPS growth (YoY) -82.2%
Net cash $265M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 9
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 65
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the water supply and refinement, and sewerage and wastewater management activities in Greece.

Full company description

Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the water supply and refinement, and sewerage and wastewater management activities in Greece. The company is involved in the design, construction, installation, operation, maintenance, development, and modernization / renovation of facilities and networks of water supply and sewerage. It operates a water distribution network of 14,000 kilometers; manages four water treatment plants with a total daily capacity of 1.8 million cubic water meters; a sewerage network of 8,500 kilometers; and three wastewater treatment centers in Psyttalia, Metamorphosis, and Thriasio. The company also engages in irrigation and rainwater collection activities. In addition, it produces electric energy through hydro, solar, biogas, natural gas, and thermal energy sources. Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company S.A. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece. Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Hellenic Corporation of Assets & Participations S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company reported revenue of $365M in FY2025 versus $361M in FY2021, a compound +0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 18/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$365M
Latest YoY
−2.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+0.5%
Revenue +0.3%/yr
FY21 $361M
FY22 $343M
FY23 $352M
FY24 $374M
FY25 $365M
Net income
FY21 $30.6M
FY22 $5.0M
FY23 $20.3M
FY24 $14.7M
FY25 −$21.4M

AHWSF screens 15% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AHWSF

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −15% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.07× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.36× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.1× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 13 · sector 7
FUTURE 0 · sector 28
PAST 8 · sector 29
HEALTH 100 · sector 66
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $134.33 $65.80 -51%
SBSP3 SBSP3 R$29.22 R$31.23 +7%
SBS SBS $5.79 $5.21 -10%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $38.59 $21.81 -43%
CSMG3 CSMG3 R$66.10 R$60.17 -9%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.42 ¥33.29 +13%
American States Water Company AWR $85.01 $48.02 -44%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥6.97 ¥10.74 +54%
California Water Service Group CWT $49.73 $33.56 -33%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.12 ¥2.77 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (AHWSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.87 versus a price of $8.10, about −15% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AHWSF?
Our model-based fair value for Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company is $6.87 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $8.10.
What is the quality score of AHWSF?
Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (AHWSF)?
Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $365M (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AHWSF?
The net profit margin of Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company is about 4.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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