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Aureka Ltd (AKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Aureka Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.13, upside -76.9%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000369704

AL Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Aureka Ltd

AKA · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0300 · Strongly overvalued (−77%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −94.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 4/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$9.50 A$0.0180 Fair Value A$0.0300 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0180 – A$9.50 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0400 · the A$0.1300 price screens above the A$0.0300 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Aureka Limited engages in the mineral exploration business in Australia. It primarily produces gold, and silver deposits. The company's flagship project owned 100% interests in the Stawell Corridor gold project located in North-West of Melbourne, Victoria.

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Aureka Limited engages in the mineral exploration business in Australia. It primarily produces gold, and silver deposits. The company's flagship project owned 100% interests in the Stawell Corridor gold project located in North-West of Melbourne, Victoria. The company was formerly known as Navarre Minerals Limited and changed its name to Aureka Limited in December 2024. Aureka Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

Stock analysis

Aureka Ltd (AKA) currently trades at A$0.1300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0300, implying the stock looks roughly 333.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0400 (bull), the price of A$0.1300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Aureka Ltd reported revenue of A$23.6K in FY2025 versus A$114M in FY2021, a compound −88.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$4.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$19.9M (≈ $14.0M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Return on equity −82.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.5% · Operating margin −165,888% · Revenue (TTM) A$8.6K · Revenue growth (YoY) −95.5% · Free cash flow −A$4.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −77%, AKA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0300 Bull A$0.0400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 47
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+345.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−94.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.4% (2021) → −20,259.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AKA screens 333% overvalued. Compare with Zijin Mining Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −57% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −96% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.57× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥31.41 ¥43.81 +39%
Newmont Corporation NEM A$177.02 A$265.78 +50%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $203.55 $223.91 +10%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $43.88 $65.40 +49%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $267.20 $293.92 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $153.81 $89.12 −42%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.60 $88.63 −15%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$146.60 HK$83.20 −43%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $28.70 $51.30 +79%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $258.29 $284.12 +10%

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Aureka Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0300 −333%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aureka Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AKA

Frequently asked questions

Is Aureka Ltd (AKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0300 versus a price of A$0.1300, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AKA?
Our model-based fair value for Aureka Ltd is A$0.0300 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1300.
What is the quality score of AKA?
Aureka Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0300 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aureka Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0300, about −77% upside versus a price of A$0.1300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
Aureka Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$8.6K (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aureka Ltd it is A$0.0300 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.1300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aureka Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AKA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1300, fair value A$0.0300, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0300). For Aureka Ltd the two are A$0.1000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aureka Ltd worth?
The market values Aureka Ltd at about A$19.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1300; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AKA?
Our models span a range for Aureka Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0300, optimistic A$0.0400 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.1300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aureka Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −82.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AKA from its 52-week high?
Aureka Ltd trades at A$0.1300, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$0.1850 and 86% above the low of A$0.0700 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aureka Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aureka Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.1300, calculated fair value A$0.0300 (−77%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AKA calculated?
We run Aureka Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Aureka Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.1300. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0300, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aureka Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0200 to A$0.0400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Aureka Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
The market capitalisation of Aureka Ltd is A$19.9M (≈ $14.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
Earnings per share at Aureka Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aureka Ltd is −82.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aureka Ltd is −21.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
The operating margin of Aureka Ltd is −165,888% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aureka Ltd (AKA)?
Revenue at Aureka Ltd is growing −95.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −94.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Aureka Ltd (AKA) generate?
The free cash flow of Aureka Ltd is −A$4.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Aureka Ltd (AKA) hold?
Aureka Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$4.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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