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Aker BP ASA (AKRBY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aker BP ASA $5.13, price $19.75, upside -74.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Aker BP ASA
AKRBY · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $5.13 · Strongly overvalued (−74.0%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +30.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!12.9% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 47/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
44‑month range $7.69 – $22.23 · fair‑value band $2.09 – $5.60 · the $19.75 price screens above the $5.13 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, field development, and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. It operates field centers, including Valhall, Ula, Edvard Grieg/Ivar Aasen, Alvheim, and Skarv. The company was formerly known as Det norske oljeselskap ASA and changed its name to Aker BP ASA in October 2016.
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Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, field development, and production of oil and gas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. It operates field centers, including Valhall, Ula, Edvard Grieg/Ivar Aasen, Alvheim, and Skarv. The company was formerly known as Det norske oljeselskap ASA and changed its name to Aker BP ASA in October 2016. Aker BP ASA was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Lysaker, Norway.
Stock analysis
Aker BP ASA (AKRBY) currently trades at $19.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.13, 74.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $20.29 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the $19.75 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.8800, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.09 (bear) to $5.60 (bull), the price of $19.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aker BP ASA reported revenue of $10.7B in FY2025 versus $5.6B in FY2021, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was $132M in FY2025, compounding −37.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.5B · P/E ratio 43.9 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) $0.4500 · Dividend yield 12.9% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −74%, AKRBY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.09
Fair Value $5.13
Bull $5.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV
$19.14
$23.12
$26.61
74
Residual Income
$6.14
$5.82
$5.66
74
ROIC Compounder
$21.43
$29.45
$39.53
69
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7100
$2.58
$3.49
62
Lynch FV
$0.6100
$0.8800
$1.14
59
PEG = 1.0
$0.6100
$0.8800
$1.14
55
EPV
$19.14
$23.12
$26.61
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$11.57
$24.07
$38.18
64
DDM Multi-Stage
$11.57
$20.29
$25.26
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.10
$1.47
$1.83
63
P/S Multiple
$1.34
$1.78
$2.23
58
P/B Multiple
$1.34
$1.78
$2.23
55
EV/EBIT
$32.89
$45.45
$58.01
66
EV/EBITDA
$26.99
$37.58
$48.17
67
EV/Revenue
$2.33
$5.38
$8.43
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.44
$5.95
$8.89
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.14
$5.82
$5.66
74
ROIC Compounder
$21.43
$29.45
$39.53
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.9200
$1.32
$1.71
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Profitability
18
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
57
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
81
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
89
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+32.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 59%
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Compare Aker BP ASA with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Aker BP ASA (AKRBY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.13 versus a price of $19.75, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AKRBY?
Our model-based fair value for Aker BP ASA is $5.13 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.75.
What is the quality score of AKRBY?
Aker BP ASA has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.13 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.09, optimistic scenario $5.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aker BP ASA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.13, about −74% upside versus a price of $19.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.09, optimistic scenario $5.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
Aker BP ASA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Aker BP ASA pay a dividend?
Aker BP ASA currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.92% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aker BP ASA it is $5.13 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $19.75. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aker BP ASA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AKRBY trades above its calculated fair value: price $19.75, fair value $5.13, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AKRBY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.13). For Aker BP ASA the two are $14.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aker BP ASA worth?
The market values Aker BP ASA at about $21.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $19.75; our models calculate a fair value of $5.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AKRBY?
Our models span a range for Aker BP ASA: cautious scenario $2.09, base $5.13, optimistic $5.60 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $19.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is AKRBY from its 52-week high?
Aker BP ASA trades at $19.75, about 11% below its 52-week high of $22.23 and 76% above the low of $11.21 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aker BP ASA?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aker BP ASA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $19.75, calculated fair value $5.13 (−74%), Quality Score 46/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AKRBY calculated?
We run Aker BP ASA through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aker BP ASA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $19.75. Our model-based fair value is $5.13, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aker BP ASA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($2.09 to $5.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Aker BP ASA
How large is the market capitalisation of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The market capitalisation of Aker BP ASA is $21.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Aker BP ASA is 43.9. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aker BP ASA is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
Earnings per share at Aker BP ASA are $0.4500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The dividend yield of Aker BP ASA is 12.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The net margin of Aker BP ASA is 1.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aker BP ASA is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aker BP ASA is 22.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
The operating margin of Aker BP ASA is 68.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
Revenue at Aker BP ASA is growing −4.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aker BP ASA (AKRBY)?
Earnings per share at Aker BP ASA are growing +140% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Aker BP ASA (AKRBY) generate?
The free cash flow of Aker BP ASA is −$217M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Aker BP ASA (AKRBY) carry?
The net debt of Aker BP ASA is $6.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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