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AKSI Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 158B IDR

A AKSI AKSI · JK
Price232.00 IDR
Fair Value212.10 IDR
Upside-8.6%
Quality66/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -2.7% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
Narrow moat 17/100
Evidence: High Range 212.10 IDR – 212.10 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 144.42 IDR to 212.10 IDR (+46.9%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +7.4% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (212.10 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,050 IDR 104.00 IDR Fair Value 212.10 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 104.00 IDR – 1,050 IDR · the 232.00 IDR price screens above the 212.10 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

AKSI (AKSI) currently trades at 232.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 212.10 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 8.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, AKSI generated revenue of 394B IDR at a net margin of -2.7%. Revenue declined 43.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 50.8B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at -9%, AKSI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 586.12 IDR 1,104 IDR 1,952 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 304.17 IDR 432.65 IDR 706.50 IDR 74
P/E Multiple 30.14 IDR 40.19 IDR 50.24 IDR 63
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 741.98 IDR 1,611 IDR 3,437 IDR 31
5Y P/E Exit 236.15 IDR 328.06 IDR 431.88 IDR 38
10Y P/E Exit 350.24 IDR 513.24 IDR 731.49 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 21.02 IDR 146.61 IDR 205.75 IDR 54
Lynch FV 75.74 IDR 108.21 IDR 140.67 IDR 50
Multiples
P/E Multiple 30.14 IDR 40.19 IDR 50.24 IDR 63
P/B Multiple 39.42 IDR 52.56 IDR 65.70 IDR 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 118.66 IDR 159.01 IDR 237.33 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 586.12 IDR 1,104 IDR 1,952 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 304.17 IDR 432.65 IDR 706.50 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 163.49 IDR 152.62 IDR 114.06 IDR 61

Widest divergence: DCF Models (513.24 IDR) versus Multiples (40.19 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 394B IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -43.1%
Net margin -2.7%
Return on equity -6.0%
Free cash flow 23.9B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 8.6
More key figures
Operating margin -3.3%
EPS (TTM) 25.47 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -56.9%
Net cash 50.8B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 66/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 15
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Mineral Sumberdaya Mandiri Tbk, through its subsidiary, PT Rezki Batulicin Transport, engages in the land transportation business in Indonesia. It is also involved in the rental of vehicles. PT Mineral Sumberdaya Mandiri Tbk was formerly known as PT Maming Enam Sembilan Mineral Tbk.

Full company description

PT Mineral Sumberdaya Mandiri Tbk, through its subsidiary, PT Rezki Batulicin Transport, engages in the land transportation business in Indonesia. It is also involved in the rental of vehicles. PT Mineral Sumberdaya Mandiri Tbk was formerly known as PT Maming Enam Sembilan Mineral Tbk. PT Mineral Sumberdaya Mandiri Tbk was founded in 1990 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Mineral Sumberdaya Mandiri Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Batulicin Enam Sembilan Transportasi.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

AKSI reported revenue of 456B IDR in FY2025 versus 480B IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B IDR in FY2025, compounding −44.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 39/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
456B IDR
Latest YoY
+8.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.0%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.7%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.1%
Revenue −1.3%/yr
FY21 480B IDR
FY22 484B IDR
FY23 431B IDR
FY24 420B IDR
FY25 456B IDR
Net income −44.9%/yr
FY21 24.2B IDR
FY22 46.8B IDR
FY23 11.7B IDR
FY24 −19.3B IDR
FY25 2.2B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +7.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +58.7 pp

of which total revenue +58.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin −35.9 pp
Tax rate −5.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −9.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AKSI Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AKSI

Peer Group

Trucking · 46 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −9% · Above median
Return on assets -1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -43% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.31× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 22 · sector 7
FUTURE 0 · sector 10
PAST 0 · sector 13
HEALTH 85 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 20

Insider activity: 45/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $225.23 $103.37 -54%
XPO, Inc XPO $219.29 $56.52 -74%
TFI International Inc TFII $155.83 $110.79 -29%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $75.19 $8.58 -89%
Saia, Inc SAIA $438.29 $129.64 -70%
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $38.19 $12.37 -68%
RXO, Inc RXO $27.07 $3.48 -87%
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $147.13 $45.89 -69%
Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN $46.04 $8.24 -82%
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥4.55 ¥1.20 -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is AKSI overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 212.10 IDR versus a price of 232.00 IDR, about −9% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AKSI?
Our model-based fair value for AKSI is 212.10 IDR (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 232.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of AKSI?
AKSI has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of AKSI?
AKSI reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 394B IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AKSI?
The net profit margin of AKSI is about -2.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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