Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.2B
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings
KNX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $8.58 to $17.16 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.02 to $22.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.50 – $82.45 · fair‑value band $12.02 – $22.32 · the $69.28 price screens above the $17.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) currently trades at $69.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.16, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.5%. Net debt stands at $2.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.02 (bear case) to $22.32 (bull case); at $69.28, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -69% fair-value upside, at -75%, KNX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($49.05) versus Earnings-Based ($5.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a freight transportation company in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment offers irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, and cross-border services.
Full company description
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a freight transportation company in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment offers irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, and cross-border services. The LTL segment provides regional direct service and serves its customers' national transportation needs by utilizing key partner carriers for coverage areas outside of its network. The Logistics segment provides brokerage and other freight management services utilizing third-party transportation providers and equipment. The Intermodal segment offers transportation services, including arranging the movement of customers' freight through third-party intermodal rail services on its trailing equipment; and drayage services to transport loads between the railheads and customer locations. The company also provides repair and maintenance shop services, equipment leasing, warranty services, and insurance; and trailer parts manufacturing, warehousing, and certain driving academy activities. It serves retail, food and beverage, consumer and paper products, transportation and logistics, housing and building, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $6.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $65.9M in FY2025, compounding −45.4%/yr from FY2021.
KNX screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$23.47 | C$19.35 | -18% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥3.86 | ¥1.15 | -70% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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