Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Knight Transportation Inc stock $100, price $62.36, upside +61.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.50 – $82.45 · fair‑value band $96.45 – $107.45 · the $62.36 price screens below the $100.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a freight transportation company in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal.
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The Truckload segment offers irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, and cross-border services. The LTL segment provides regional direct service and serves its customers' national transportation needs by utilizing key partner carriers for coverage areas outside of its network.
The Logistics segment provides brokerage and other freight management services utilizing third-party transportation providers and equipment.
The Intermodal segment offers transportation services, including arranging the movement of customers' freight through third-party intermodal rail services on its trailing equipment; and drayage services to transport loads between the railheads and customer locations.
The company also provides repair and maintenance shop services, equipment leasing, warranty services, and insurance; and trailer parts manufacturing, warehousing, and certain driving academy activities.
It serves retail, food and beverage, consumer and paper products, transportation and logistics, housing and building, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) currently trades at $62.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $100.50, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $56.31 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $62.36 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.63, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $96.45 (bear) to $107.45 (bull), the price of $62.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Knight Transportation Inc reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $6.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $65.9M in FY2025, compounding −45.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $10.2B Large · P/E ratio 66.3 · P/S ratio 1.32 · EPS (TTM) $0.9400 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at 61%, KNX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($4.16 to $123.55). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$96.45Fair Value $100.50Bull$107.45
Price $62.36 · Upside +61.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1529 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$62.27$123.55$232.1176
Residual Income$26.22$27.32$29.2176
Growth DCF$60.70$114.18$202.3075
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$62.27$123.55$232.1176
Owner Earnings$46.00$93.54$176.6772
5Y Revenue Exit$24.22$40.16$60.3672
5Y EBITDA Exit$53.90$104.06$168.4973
5Y P/E Exit$18.76$28.42$38.4171
10Y Revenue Exit$36.22$56.31$85.1266
10Y EBITDA Exit$56.10$102.77$176.5066
10Y P/E Exit$33.13$47.77$66.5664
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$2.76$14.75$20.4363
Lynch FV$4.07$5.82$7.5661
PEG = 1.0$4.07$5.82$7.5657
EPV$3.83$5.71$7.3173
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$6.22$12.18$18.1267
DDM Multi-Stage$6.22$10.63$12.8867
Multiples
P/E Multiple$6.38$8.51$10.6463
P/S Multiple$5.17$6.89$8.6158
P/B Multiple$25.13$33.51$41.8955
EV/EBIT$3.78$10.34$16.9061
EV/EBITDA$46.35$67.11$87.8667
EV/Revenuen/a$4.16$10.1950
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.72$4.99$7.4554
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$60.70$114.18$202.3075
Rev-Margin DCF$24.22$40.61$62.8171
Economic Profit
Residual Income$26.22$27.32$29.2176
ROIC Compounder$3.83$5.71$7.3171
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$6.00$8.57$11.1467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $16.2M and none bought.
SaleReid DoveCEO AAA Cooper Transportation, Director2× since Jul 31, 2026: 219,154 shares, avg. $72.16$15.8MAug 13, 2026
SalePloeg David VanderDirector2,200 shares at $52.33$115,126Aug 12, 2026
SaleCary M FlanaganExec VP and CAO2× since Nov 7, 2025: 7,900 shares, avg. $56.79$448,624Jul 31, 2026
SaleJoshua SmithCFO - US Xpress5,770 shares at $60.91$351,451Feb 26, 2026
SaleKevin P KnightExecutive Chairman, Director3× since Dec 9, 2025: 135,000 shares, avg. $57.90$7.8MFeb 20, 2026
SaleTimothy Sean HarringtonPres - US Xpress8,500 shares at $59.81$508,385Feb 10, 2026
SaleMichael K LiuEVP - Operations1,243 shares at $60.87$75,661Feb 4, 2026
SaleJames L FitzsimmonsCOO Swift Transportation5,917 shares at $54.77$324,074Feb 4, 2026
SaleReed StultzSR VP - Logistics4,692 shares at $51.51$241,685Dec 4, 2025
Plus 13 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.2% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−19.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30.0% vs −11.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.7% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Knight-Swift can capture higher contract rates as capacity tightens, yet its main weakness remains persistently low profitability in a competitive sector with thin margins and returns.
Main risk: Asset-light models such as Landstar's variable-cost agent network could attract customers with lower fixed costs and greater resilience in downturns, squeezing margins for Knight-Swift's asset-heavy truckload operations.
Bull case: Knight-Swift could leverage its scale and LTL expansion to match asset-light efficiency through better utilization and selective pricing while adopting KI for operational gains.
Bear case: If asset-light competitors and rising litigation costs persist, Knight-Swift might lose significant market share in truckload, face sustained margin pressure and struggle to maintain its asset base profitability.
Knight-Swift is positioned to capture higher contract rates that continue to build through next year despite the usual summer lull in spot markets. Rising expenses tied to driver availability and hiring, however, threaten to offset some of those gains for all carriers in the space. Will the revenue improvements from tighter capacity ultimately outpace the labor cost increases?
Compare Knight Transportation Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+61.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
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Is Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $100.50 versus a price of $62.36, about +61% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KNX?
Our model-based fair value for Knight Transportation Inc is $100.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $62.36.
What is the quality score of KNX?
Knight Transportation Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $100.50 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $96.45, optimistic scenario $107.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Knight Transportation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $100.50, about +61% upside versus a price of $62.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $96.45, optimistic scenario $107.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Knight Transportation Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Knight Transportation Inc pay a dividend?
Knight Transportation Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Knight Transportation Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +5.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNX use?
Our models discount Knight Transportation Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.21, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Knight Transportation Inc that is +5.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Knight Transportation Inc grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +5.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Knight Transportation Inc (+5.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.50 %: that much free cash flow Knight Transportation Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Knight Transportation Inc it is $100.50 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $62.36. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Knight Transportation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KNX trades below its calculated fair value: price $62.36, fair value $100.50, a gap of about +61% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($62.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($100.50). For Knight Transportation Inc the two are $38.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Knight Transportation Inc worth?
The market values Knight Transportation Inc at about $10.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $62.36; our models calculate a fair value of $100.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KNX?
Our models span a range for Knight Transportation Inc: cautious scenario $96.45, base $100.50, optimistic $107.45 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $62.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KNX?
Knight Transportation Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $100.50 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 80.0 (reported for FY2025: 155.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016, FY2017, FY2025 ex one-offs: 17.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 11.0.
What is the PEG ratio of KNX?
The PEG ratio of Knight Transportation Inc is 0.25 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Knight Transportation Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 0.6%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNX from its 52-week high?
Knight Transportation Inc trades at $62.36, about 24% below its 52-week high of $82.45 and 51% above the low of $41.29 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $100.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Knight Transportation Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Saia, Inc, TFI International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Knight Transportation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $62.36, calculated fair value $100.50 (+61%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNX calculated?
We run Knight Transportation Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $100.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Knight Transportation Inc currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $62.36. Our model-based fair value is $100.50, about +61% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Knight Transportation Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($96.45). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band ($96.45 to $107.45), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) come from?
Earnings per share at Knight Transportation Inc grew −5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.8 %, EBIT margin −13.8 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Knight Transportation Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The market capitalisation of Knight Transportation Inc is $10.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Knight Transportation Inc is 1.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Earnings per share at Knight Transportation Inc are $0.9400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The dividend yield of Knight Transportation Inc is 1.2% (payout 41.5%, on adjusted earnings, reported 80.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The net margin of Knight Transportation Inc is 0.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Knight Transportation Inc is 0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Knight Transportation Inc is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The operating margin of Knight Transportation Inc is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Revenue at Knight Transportation Inc is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Earnings per share at Knight Transportation Inc are growing +23.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) carry?
The net debt of Knight Transportation Inc is $2.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026