Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Knight Transportation Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.50 – $82.45 · the $66.68 price screens below the $106.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a freight transportation company in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment offers irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, and cross-border services.
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Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a freight transportation company in the United States and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Truckload, LTL, Logistics, and Intermodal. The Truckload segment offers irregular route, dedicated, refrigerated, flatbed, expedited, and cross-border services. The LTL segment provides regional direct service and serves its customers' national transportation needs by utilizing key partner carriers for coverage areas outside of its network. The Logistics segment provides brokerage and other freight management services utilizing third-party transportation providers and equipment. The Intermodal segment offers transportation services, including arranging the movement of customers' freight through third-party intermodal rail services on its trailing equipment; and drayage services to transport loads between the railheads and customer locations. The company also provides repair and maintenance shop services, equipment leasing, warranty services, and insurance; and trailer parts manufacturing, warehousing, and certain driving academy activities. It serves retail, food and beverage, consumer and paper products, transportation and logistics, housing and building, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1989 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) currently trades at $66.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.69, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $49.05 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $66.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $11.63, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Knight Transportation Inc reported revenue of $7.5B in FY2025 versus $6.0B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $65.9M in FY2025, compounding −45.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.2B · P/E ratio 317.5 · P/S ratio 2.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −63% fair-value upside, at 60%, KNX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $106.69Fair Value $106.69Bull $106.69
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−18.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−30% vs −12%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 3%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Knight Transportation Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 48 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−76% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.23× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
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Is Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $106.69 versus a price of $66.68, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KNX?
Our model-based fair value for Knight Transportation Inc is $106.69 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.68.
What is the quality score of KNX?
Knight Transportation Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $106.69 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Knight Transportation Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $106.69, about +60% upside versus a price of $66.68 (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Knight Transportation Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Knight Transportation Inc pay a dividend?
Knight Transportation Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Knight Transportation Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KNX use?
Our models discount Knight Transportation Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Knight Transportation Inc that is +6.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Knight Transportation Inc grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +6.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Knight Transportation Inc (+6.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.03 %: that much free cash flow Knight Transportation Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Knight Transportation Inc it is $106.69 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $66.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Knight Transportation Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, KNX trades below its calculated fair value: price $66.68, fair value $106.69, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KNX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($106.69). For Knight Transportation Inc the two are $40.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Knight Transportation Inc worth?
The market values Knight Transportation Inc at about $12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $66.68; our models calculate a fair value of $106.69 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of KNX?
Knight Transportation Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 317.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $106.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
What is the PEG ratio of KNX?
The PEG ratio of Knight Transportation Inc is 0.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Knight Transportation Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KNX from its 52-week high?
Knight Transportation Inc trades at $66.68, about 16% below its 52-week high of $79.10 and 74% above the low of $38.37 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $106.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Knight Transportation Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, TFI International Inc, Saia, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Knight Transportation Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $66.68, calculated fair value $106.69 (+60%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KNX calculated?
We run Knight Transportation Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $106.69, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Knight Transportation Inc currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $66.68. Our model-based fair value is $106.69, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Knight Transportation Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($106.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (58/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) come from?
Earnings per share at Knight Transportation Inc grew −5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.8 %, EBIT margin −13.8 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Knight Transportation Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The market capitalisation of Knight Transportation Inc is $12.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Knight Transportation Inc is 2.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Earnings per share at Knight Transportation Inc are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 317.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The dividend yield of Knight Transportation Inc is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The net margin of Knight Transportation Inc is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Knight Transportation Inc is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Knight Transportation Inc is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
The operating margin of Knight Transportation Inc is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Revenue at Knight Transportation Inc is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Knight Transportation Inc (KNX)?
Earnings per share at Knight Transportation Inc are growing −74.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Knight Transportation Inc (KNX) carry?
The net debt of Knight Transportation Inc is $2.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 18, 2026