ArcBest Corp (ARCB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ArcBest Corp stock $52.83, price $128, that is 58.7% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $56.25 – $173.07 · fair‑value band $38.12 – $66.80 · the $127.91 price screens above the $52.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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ArcBest Corporation, an integrated logistics company, provides ground, air, and ocean transportation solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset-Based and Asset-Light.
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The Asset-Based segment provides less-than-truckload (LTL) services that transports general commodities, such as food, textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, chemicals, non-bulk petroleum products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, glass, automotive parts, machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured products.
This segment also offers motor carrier freight transportation services to customers in Mexico through arrangements with trucking companies.
The Asset-Light segment provides ground expedite services; third-party transportation brokerage services by sourcing various capacity solutions, including dry van over-the-road, temperature-controlled and refrigerated, flatbed, intermodal or container shipping, and specialized equipment; less-than-container and full container load ocean transportation services; warehousing and distribution services; managed transportation services; and moving services to "do-it-yourself' consumer, as well as final mile, time critical, product launch, retail logistics, supply chain optimization, brokered LTL, and trade show shipping services.
This segment also offers premium logistics services, such as deployment of specialized equipment to meet linehaul requirements; and international freight transportation with air, ocean, and ground services.
The company was formerly known as Arkansas Best Corporation and changed its name to ArcBest Corporation in May 2014. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.
Stock analysis
ArcBest Corp (ARCB) currently trades at $127.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.83, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $52.94 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $127.91 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $24.64, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $38.12 (bear) to $66.80 (bull), the price of $127.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ArcBest Corp reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $60.1M in FY2025, compounding −27.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.0B Mid · P/E ratio 99.9 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) $1.28 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 1.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 115% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −59%, ARCB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$38.12Fair Value $52.83Bull$66.80
Price $127.91 · Downside -58.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6860 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.2M and none bought.
SaleJason T ParksVP - Controller(1)855 shares at $135.09$115,502Sep 15, 2026
SaleDennis L Anderson IIChief Innovation Officer5,450 shares at $135.16$736,640Aug 11, 2026
SaleJudy R McReynoldsDirector3× since Aug 4, 2026: 5,800 shares, avg. $140.56$815,246Aug 7, 2026
SaleJanice E StippDirector5,000 shares at $138.71$693,564Aug 6, 2026
SaleErin K GattisCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER6,163 shares at $140.00$862,820Aug 4, 2026
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.5% vs 4.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.6% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: ArcBest shows operational streamlining for efficiency gains in integrated logistics but faces limited competitive moat and persistently low profitability in the trucking sector.
Main risk: External pressures from soft freight volumes risk limiting the margin gains targeted by the operational restructuring.
ArcBest has streamlined its brand structure and operations to drive efficiency and long-term growth in its integrated logistics business. Our models see the stock as overvalued even with these internal changes targeting cost savings. Will the restructuring deliver stronger margins before freight volumes recover or will external pressures limit the impact?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−58.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)99.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.71× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)29.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.4× · Pricier than median
PEG0.50× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)80· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)5· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 35
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ArcBest Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARCB
Frequently asked questions
Is ArcBest Corp (ARCB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $52.83 versus a price of $127.91, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARCB?
Our model-based fair value for ArcBest Corp is $52.83 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $127.91.
What is the quality score of ARCB?
ArcBest Corp has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $52.83 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $38.12, optimistic scenario $66.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ArcBest Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $52.83, about 59% lower versus a price of $127.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $38.12, optimistic scenario $66.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
ArcBest Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does ArcBest Corp pay a dividend?
ArcBest Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.38% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of ArcBest Corp (ARCB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
ArcBest Corp pays a dividend of $0.48 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2003. The payout ratio is 32.1% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 37.5%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 9.39 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ArcBest Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +21.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARCB use?
Our models discount ArcBest Corp at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ArcBest Corp that is +21.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ArcBest Corp (ARCB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ArcBest Corp grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +21.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ArcBest Corp (ARCB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ArcBest Corp (+21.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.53 %: that much free cash flow ArcBest Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ArcBest Corp it is $52.83 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $127.91. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is ArcBest Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, ARCB trades above its calculated fair value: price $127.91, fair value $52.83, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARCB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($127.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($52.83). For ArcBest Corp the two are $75.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ArcBest Corp worth?
The market values ArcBest Corp at about $3.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $127.91; our models calculate a fair value of $52.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARCB?
Our models span a range for ArcBest Corp: cautious scenario $38.12, base $52.83, optimistic $66.80 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $127.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARCB?
ArcBest Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 99.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $52.83 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 41.8 (reported for FY2025: 48.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 15.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 2.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ARCB?
The PEG ratio of ArcBest Corp is 0.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
Balance-sheet figures for ArcBest Corp (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 1.3%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARCB from its 52-week high?
ArcBest Corp trades at $127.91, about 26% below its 52-week high of $173.07 and 115% above the low of $59.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $52.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ArcBest Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ArcBest Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $127.91, calculated fair value $52.83 (−59%), Quality Score 56/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARCB calculated?
We run ArcBest Corp through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $52.83 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. ArcBest Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $127.91. Our model-based fair value is $52.83, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ArcBest Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($66.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of ArcBest Corp (ARCB) come from?
Earnings per share at ArcBest Corp grew +15.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.4 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ArcBest Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The market capitalisation of ArcBest Corp is $3.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ArcBest Corp is 0.71 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
Earnings per share at ArcBest Corp are $1.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 99.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The dividend yield of ArcBest Corp is 0.4% (payout 32.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 37.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The net margin of ArcBest Corp is 0.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ArcBest Corp is 1.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ArcBest Corp is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
The operating margin of ArcBest Corp is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
Revenue at ArcBest Corp is growing +15.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ArcBest Corp (ARCB)?
Earnings per share at ArcBest Corp are growing −59.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ArcBest Corp (ARCB) carry?
The net debt of ArcBest Corp is $567M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026