ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.3B
ArcBest Corporation
ARCB · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $56.69 to $45.89 (−19.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 67% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($60.73). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.40 – $173.22 · fair‑value band $34.42 – $60.73 · the $137.76 price screens above the $45.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) currently trades at $137.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.89, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ArcBest Corporation generated revenue of $4.0B at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.3%. Net debt stands at $567M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.42 (bear case) to $60.73 (bull case); at $137.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 132% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at -67%, ARCB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($60.79) versus Dividend Discount ($6.24). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ArcBest Corporation, an integrated logistics company, provides ground, air, and ocean transportation solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset-Based and Asset-Light.
Full company description
ArcBest Corporation, an integrated logistics company, provides ground, air, and ocean transportation solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset-Based and Asset-Light. The Asset-Based segment provides less-than-truckload (LTL) services that transports general commodities, such as food, textiles, apparel, furniture, appliances, chemicals, non-bulk petroleum products, rubber, plastics, metal and metal products, wood, glass, automotive parts, machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured products. This segment also offers motor carrier freight transportation services to customers in Mexico through arrangements with trucking companies. The Asset-Light segment provides ground expedite services; third-party transportation brokerage services by sourcing various capacity solutions, including dry van over-the-road, temperature-controlled and refrigerated, flatbed, intermodal or container shipping, and specialized equipment; less-than-container and full container load ocean transportation services; warehousing and distribution services; managed transportation services; and moving services to "do-it-yourself' consumer, as well as final mile, time critical, product launch, retail logistics, supply chain optimization, brokered LTL, and trade show shipping services. This segment also offers premium logistics services, such as deployment of specialized equipment to meet linehaul requirements; and international freight transportation with air, ocean, and ground services. The company was formerly known as Arkansas Best Corporation and changed its name to ArcBest Corporation in May 2014. The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Fort Smith, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ArcBest Corporation reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $3.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.6%/yr. Reported net income was $60.1M in FY2025, compounding −27.2%/yr from FY2021.
ARCB screens 67% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ARCB Q2 Deep Dive: Restructuring and Digital Initiatives Take Center Stage Amid Market Challenges
- ArcBest (ARCB) Could Be 10% Undervalued As Earnings Raise Fresh Valuation Questions
- ArcBest notes ‘very healthy pipeline’ amid restructuring
- ArcBest Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y on Pricing Gains
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$23.47 | C$19.35 | -18% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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