Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc (ODFL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $47.5B
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc
ODFL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($129.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($61.39 to $129.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $113.58 – $248.73 · fair‑value band $61.39 – $129.21 · the $211.41 price screens above the $103.37 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc (ODFL) currently trades at $211.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $103.37, implying the stock looks roughly 51.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc generated revenue of $5.5B at a net margin of 18.5%. Revenue declined 2.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.3%. Net debt stands at $21.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $61.39 (bear case) to $129.21 (bull case); at $211.41, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at -51%, ODFL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($101.42) versus Asset-Based ($13.89). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services.
Full company description
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload motor carrier in the United States and North America. The company offers regional, inter-regional, and national less-than-truckload services, as well as expedited transportation services. It also provides various value-added services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. In addition, the company operates fleet maintenance centers. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated 10,184 tractors, 30,824 linehaul trailers, and 14,313 pickup and delivery trailers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
ODFL screens 51% overvalued. Compare with XPO, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can ODFL's Q2 Earnings Beat and Higher Spending Drive More Growth?
- Is ODFL Stock a Buy as Earnings Improve but Valuation Stays High?
- ODFL Q2 Deep Dive: Yield Discipline and Margin Gains Amid Volume Headwinds
- Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock Fair Value Edges Higher After Analyst Target Increases
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$23.47 | C$19.35 | -18% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥3.86 | ¥1.15 | -70% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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