XPO, Inc (XPO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $25.2B
XPO, Inc
XPO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −3.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($70.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($23.59 to $70.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.15 – $228.37 · fair‑value band $23.59 – $70.65 · the $196.35 price screens above the $56.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
XPO, Inc (XPO) currently trades at $196.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $56.52, implying the stock looks roughly 71.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, XPO, Inc generated revenue of $8.3B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.9%. Net debt stands at $4.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $23.59 (bear case) to $70.65 (bull case); at $196.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -69% fair-value upside, at -71%, XPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($79.77) versus Asset-Based ($10.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. The company operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation.
Full company description
XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. The company operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The North American LTL segment provides shippers with geographic density and day-definite domestic and cross-border services to the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. The European Transportation segment offers dedicated truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding, and warehousing and multimodal solutions to an extensive base of customers within the consumer, trade, and industrial markets. The company was formerly known as XPO Logistics, Inc. and changed its name to XPO, Inc. in December 2022. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XPO, Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $316M in FY2025, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2021.
XPO screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- XPO (XPO) Earnings Beat Raises A Fair Value Question
- XPO Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Productivity Gains Lead the Story
- XPO Q2 Earnings Call Highlights AI-Driven Margin Gains
- XPO Logistics, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Mullen Group MTL | C$23.47 | C$19.35 | -18% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥3.86 | ¥1.15 | -70% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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