XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of XPO Logistics Inc stock $71.58, price $176, that is 59.4% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.15 – $228.37 · fair‑value band $36.66 – $106.56 · the $176.48 price screens above the $71.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. The company operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation.
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The North American LTL segment provides shippers with geographic density and day-definite domestic and cross-border services to the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean.
The European Transportation segment offers dedicated truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding, and warehousing and multimodal solutions to an extensive base of customers within the consumer, trade, and industrial markets.
The company was formerly known as XPO Logistics, Inc. and changed its name to XPO, Inc. in December 2022. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) currently trades at $176.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.58, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $81.97 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $176.48 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $20.77, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $36.66 (bear) to $106.56 (bull), the price of $176.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
XPO Logistics Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $316M in FY2025, compounding −1.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.0B Large · P/E ratio 41.5 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) $4.25 · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 26.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin 12.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −59%, XPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$36.66Fair Value $71.58Bull$106.56
Price $176.48 · Downside -59.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.61 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.4M and none bought.
SaleDavid J. BatesChief Operating Officer3× since Sep 14, 2026: 7,845 shares, avg. $183.81$1.4MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKyle WismansChief Financial Officer3× since Sep 14, 2026: 2,250 shares, avg. $181.87$409,208Nov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher Michael BrownChief Accounting Officer5,000 shares at $201.81$1.0MAug 11, 2026
SaleAllison LandryDirector2,400 shares at $215.61$517,464May 28, 2026
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.1% vs 16.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.7% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from expanded LTL network in growth corridors stands against limited durable signals and competitive pressures without unique edge or peer outperformance.
Main risk: Elevated leverage from purchases of Yellow terminals and other network assets might increase interest expenses or constrain capital allocation if freight demand weakens, squeezing operating margins.
Bull case: By continuing to insource linehaul and deploy AI for route and dock optimization XPO could accelerate deleveraging and absorb any legal costs while expanding its denser network to capture more premium freight.
Bear case: If leverage remains elevated amid soft volumes and further legal charges materialize XPO might face higher borrowing costs, reduced investment capacity and margin compression that limits its ability to compete on service and density.
XPO has expanded its LTL network to 300 service centers through recent openings that add dock doors and capacity in high-growth corridors near Phoenix and Kansas City. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued despite these steps that tap into rebounding manufacturing and cross-border demand. Will the denser footprint generate enough operating leverage to offset added fixed costs, or will it mainly increase exposure to softer freight volumes?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−59.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)5.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)12.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.64× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
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Is XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $71.58 versus a price of $176.48, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of XPO?
Our model-based fair value for XPO Logistics Inc is $71.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $176.48.
What is the quality score of XPO?
XPO Logistics Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $71.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $36.66, optimistic scenario $106.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XPO Logistics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $71.58, about 59% lower versus a price of $176.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $36.66, optimistic scenario $106.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
XPO Logistics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, XPO Logistics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +37.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of XPO use?
Our models discount XPO Logistics Inc at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For XPO Logistics Inc that is +37.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at XPO Logistics Inc grew +5.8 % a year. The price currently implies +37.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into XPO Logistics Inc (+37.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.57 %: that much free cash flow XPO Logistics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XPO Logistics Inc it is $71.58 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $176.48. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XPO Logistics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, XPO trades above its calculated fair value: price $176.48, fair value $71.58, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of XPO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($176.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($71.58). For XPO Logistics Inc the two are $104.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XPO Logistics Inc worth?
The market values XPO Logistics Inc at about $21.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $176.48; our models calculate a fair value of $71.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about XPO?
Our models span a range for XPO Logistics Inc: cautious scenario $36.66, base $71.58, optimistic $106.56 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $176.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of XPO?
XPO Logistics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $71.58 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 11.3, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 16.2.
What is the PEG ratio of XPO?
The PEG ratio of XPO Logistics Inc is 1.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
Balance-sheet figures for XPO Logistics Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.5%, debt of 1.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is XPO from its 52-week high?
XPO Logistics Inc trades at $176.48, about 23% below its 52-week high of $228.37 and 40% above the low of $125.64 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $71.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XPO Logistics Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Inc, TFI International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XPO Logistics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $176.48, calculated fair value $71.58 (−59%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of XPO calculated?
We run XPO Logistics Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $71.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. XPO Logistics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $176.48. Our model-based fair value is $71.58, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XPO Logistics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($106.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($36.66 to $106.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of XPO Logistics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The market capitalisation of XPO Logistics Inc is $21.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of XPO Logistics Inc is 2.38 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
Earnings per share at XPO Logistics Inc are $4.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The net margin of XPO Logistics Inc is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XPO Logistics Inc is 26.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XPO Logistics Inc is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
The operating margin of XPO Logistics Inc is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
Revenue at XPO Logistics Inc is growing +12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XPO Logistics Inc (XPO)?
Earnings per share at XPO Logistics Inc are growing +125% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does XPO Logistics Inc (XPO) carry?
The net debt of XPO Logistics Inc is $4.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026