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Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.8B

WE Werner Enterprises, Inc logo Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN · US
Price$37.51
Fair Value$16.48
Upside-56.1%
Quality47/100
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Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -0.3% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
1.22% dividend yield
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 20/100
Evidence: Medium Range $16.48 – $26.36 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 8 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $65.67 to $16.48 (−74.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −13.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$47.29 $22.87 Fair Value $16.48 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $22.87 – $47.29 · fair‑value band $16.48 – $26.36 · the $37.51 price screens above the $16.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN) currently trades at $37.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.48, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Werner Enterprises, Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of -0.3%. Revenue grew 13.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.2%. Net debt stands at $692M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $16.48 (bear case) to $26.36 (bull case); at $37.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -69% fair-value upside, at -56%, WERN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder $0.7800 72
Gordon GGM $4.99 $9.95 $15.06 70
DDM Multi-Stage $4.99 $7.75 $10.50 61
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV $0.7800 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.99 $9.95 $15.06 70
DDM Multi-Stage $4.99 $7.75 $10.50 61
Multiples
EV/EBIT $3.29 $8.24 $13.18 53
EV/EBITDA $46.37 $65.67 $84.98 54
EV/Revenue $3.58 $8.12 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.37 $15.23 $22.73 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $0.7800 72

Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($15.23) versus Dividend Discount ($7.75). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $3.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.6%
Net margin -0.3%
Return on equity -1.2%
Free cash flow −$68.5M FY2025
Operating margin 0.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.1500
Dividend yield 1.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +380%
Net debt $692M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Werner Enterprises, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in transporting truckload shipments of general commodities in interstate and intrastate commerce in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and internationally.

Full company description

Werner Enterprises, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in transporting truckload shipments of general commodities in interstate and intrastate commerce in the United States, Mexico, Canada, and internationally. The company operates a fleet of medium-to-long-haul vans that transport various consumer nondurable products and other commodities in truckload quantities using dry van trailers; the expedited fleet, which provides time-sensitive truckload services using driver teams; a regional short-haul fleet for truckload van service; and temperature-controlled fleet, which offers truckload services for temperature-sensitive products using temperature-controlled trailers to retail distribution center or manufacturing facility, utilizing either dry van or specialized trailers. It also provides non-asset-based transportation and logistics services, comprising truckload logistics, which uses contracted carriers to complete shipments for brokerage customers and freight management customers, which it offers logistics management services and solutions; intermodal, which offers rail transportation through alliances with rail and drayage providers as an alternative to truck transportation; and werner final mile offers residential and commercial deliveries of large or heavy items using third-party agents and independent contractors. In addition, the company sells used trucks and trailers; and trades used trucks to original equipment manufacturers. It transports retail store merchandise, consumer products, food and beverage products and manufactured products. As of December 31, 2025, it had a fleet of 7,100 trucks, which included 6,785 that were company-operated, as well as 315 owned and operated by independent contractors; 28,780 trailers that comprised dry vans, flatbeds, and temperature-controlled, and other trailers; and 27 drayage company trucks and 170 Final Mile delivery trucks. Werner Enterprises, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Werner Enterprises, Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$14.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 16/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.0B
Latest YoY
−1.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−3.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (40Y)
+9.7%
Revenue +2.1%/yr
FY21 $2.7B
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $3.3B
FY24 $3.0B
FY25 $3.0B
Net income
FY21 $259M
FY22 $241M
FY23 $112M
FY24 $34.2M
FY25 −$14.4M

WERN screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Werner Enterprises, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WERN

Peer Group

Trucking · 47 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 47 · Below median
Fair Value upside −56% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.03× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.90× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 3.83× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 9
FUTURE 68 · sector 9
PAST 0 · sector 13
HEALTH 72 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 24 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $225.23 $103.37 -54%
XPO, Inc XPO $219.29 $56.52 -74%
TFI International Inc TFII $155.83 $110.79 -29%
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $75.19 $8.58 -89%
Saia, Inc SAIA $438.29 $129.64 -70%
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $38.19 $12.37 -68%
RXO, Inc RXO $27.07 $3.48 -87%
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $147.13 $45.89 -69%
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥4.55 ¥1.20 -74%
Mullen Group MTL C$23.47 C$19.35 -18%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.48 versus a price of $37.51, about −56% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WERN?
Our model-based fair value for Werner Enterprises, Inc is $16.48 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $37.51.
What is the quality score of WERN?
Werner Enterprises, Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Werner Enterprises, Inc (WERN)?
Werner Enterprises, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of WERN?
The net profit margin of Werner Enterprises, Inc is about -0.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Werner Enterprises, Inc pay a dividend?
Werner Enterprises, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.32% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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