AltaGas Ltd (ALA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AltaGas Ltd stock C$27.65, price C$53.83, that is 48.6% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$19.12 – C$57.18 · fair‑value band C$25.85 – C$34.13 · the C$53.83 price screens above the C$27.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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AltaGas Ltd. operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America. It operates through the Utilities and Midstream segments.
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The Utilities segment owns and operates franchised, cost-of-service, and rate-regulated natural gas distribution and storage utilities for residential and commercial customers.
This segment also offers storage facilities and contracts for interstate natural gas transportation and storage services, as well as natural gas and electricity directly to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, and the District of Columbia.
The Midstream segment is involved in the operation of two liquified petroleum gas export terminals; natural gas gathering, processing, and extraction; and fractionation and liquids handling; and natural gas and natural gas liquids marketing business, domestic logistics, trucking and rail terminals, and liquid and natural gas storage capability.
In addition, the company operates gas-fired power generation and distribution assets with a generating capacity of 508 megawatts of power in California. AltaGas Ltd. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
AltaGas Ltd (ALA) currently trades at C$53.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$27.65, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$40.98 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the C$53.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$7.21, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$25.85 (bear) to C$34.13 (bull), the price of C$53.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
AltaGas Ltd reported revenue of C$12.5B in FY2025 versus C$10.6B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$768M in FY2025, compounding +28.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$16.8B (≈ $12.0B) Large · P/E ratio 26.9 · P/S ratio 1.16 · EPS (TTM) C$2.00 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 4.4% · Return on equity 6.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −49%, ALA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$25.85Fair Value C$27.65BullC$34.13
Price C$53.83 · Downside -48.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.6285 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.1% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.2% vs 9.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Long-term take-or-pay contracts and cost pass-throughs deliver stable midstream returns yet expansion execution risks remain the chief durability concern.
Main risk: The Metlakatla First Nation has withdrawn consent for the REEF project and filed suit alleging inadequate consultation and undisclosed exclusivity terms, which could delay or restrict future expansions and other export initiatives at the port.
Bull case: By securing additional long-term tolling contracts and deepening partnerships with First Nations, AltaGas could strengthen its export platform and turn regulatory scrutiny into a competitive edge for new projects.
Bear case: If the exclusivity dispute leads to a competing terminal or blocks expansions, AltaGas could lose market access advantages for its Montney-sourced LPG volumes and face sustained pressure on midstream margins.
AltaGas operates a midstream platform anchored in long-term take-or-pay contracts and cost pass-throughs that generate stable returns on its gathering, processing and export assets. Yet the REEF export project has already slipped to early 2027 with a 12 percent higher capital estimate after hundreds of lost rig days. Will the contractual cash flow stability prove more durable than the execution risks on expansion?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.6% · Below median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)26.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.88× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.16× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.92× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)27· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)49· sector 55
DIVIDEND (yield)47· sector 78
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AltaGas Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALA
Frequently asked questions
Is AltaGas Ltd (ALA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$27.65 versus a price of C$53.83, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALA?
Our model-based fair value for AltaGas Ltd is C$27.65 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$53.83.
What is the quality score of ALA?
AltaGas Ltd has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$27.65 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$25.85, optimistic scenario C$34.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AltaGas Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$27.65, about 49% lower versus a price of C$53.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$25.85, optimistic scenario C$34.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
AltaGas Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$14.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does AltaGas Ltd pay a dividend?
AltaGas Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AltaGas Ltd it is C$27.65 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of C$53.83. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AltaGas Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, ALA trades above its calculated fair value: price C$53.83, fair value C$27.65, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$53.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$27.65). For AltaGas Ltd the two are C$26.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AltaGas Ltd worth?
The market values AltaGas Ltd at about C$16.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is C$53.83; our models calculate a fair value of C$27.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALA?
Our models span a range for AltaGas Ltd: cautious scenario C$25.85, base C$27.65, optimistic C$34.13 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price C$53.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALA?
AltaGas Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.9 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$27.65 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 24.3 (reported for FY2025: 21.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 16.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
What is the PEG ratio of ALA?
The PEG ratio of AltaGas Ltd is 1.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
Balance-sheet figures for AltaGas Ltd (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 6.6%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALA from its 52-week high?
AltaGas Ltd trades at C$53.83, about 6% below its 52-week high of C$57.18 and 36% above the low of C$39.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$27.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AltaGas Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AltaGas Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price C$53.83, calculated fair value C$27.65 (−49%), Quality Score 41/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALA calculated?
We run AltaGas Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$27.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. AltaGas Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was C$53.83. Our model-based fair value is C$27.65, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AltaGas Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$34.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of AltaGas Ltd (ALA) come from?
Earnings per share at AltaGas Ltd grew +10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.6 %, EBIT margin −7.6 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AltaGas Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The market capitalisation of AltaGas Ltd is C$16.8B (≈ $12.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AltaGas Ltd is 1.16 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
Earnings per share at AltaGas Ltd are C$2.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The dividend yield of AltaGas Ltd is 2.3% (payout 70.0%, on adjusted earnings, reported 63.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The net margin of AltaGas Ltd is 4.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AltaGas Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AltaGas Ltd is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
The operating margin of AltaGas Ltd is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
Revenue at AltaGas Ltd is growing +32.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AltaGas Ltd (ALA)?
Earnings per share at AltaGas Ltd are growing +58.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AltaGas Ltd (ALA) generate?
The free cash flow of AltaGas Ltd is −C$344M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AltaGas Ltd (ALA) carry?
The net debt of AltaGas Ltd is C$10.4B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 2, 2026