Aquila SA (ALAQU) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €6.0M
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Below-average quality, screening 18% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from €3.31 (bear) to €5.55 (bull), base €4.48. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 47/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.30 – €5.92 · fair‑value band €3.31 – €5.55 · the €3.80 price screens below the €4.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Aquila SA (ALAQU) currently trades at €3.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.48, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aquila SA generated revenue of €28.5M at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue grew 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €1.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €3.31 (bear case) to €5.55 (bull case); at €3.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 18%, ALAQU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€11.50) versus Asset-Based (€1.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aquila SA provides alarm intervention services in France. The company also offers security round and mobile security services. It operates through a network of security companies. The company was founded in 1993 and is based in Avignon, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aquila SA reported revenue of €28.5M in FY2025 versus €29.8M in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was €410K in FY2025, compounding −11.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +128.9 pp · buybacks/dilution −14.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch ALAQU: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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