Allegion plc (ALLE) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.0B
Allegion plc
ALLE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +21.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($165.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($77.16 to $165.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $84.14 – $178.36 · fair‑value band $77.16 – $165.34 · the $168.70 price screens above the $127.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Allegion plc (ALLE) currently trades at $168.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $127.80, implying the stock looks roughly 24.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Allegion plc generated revenue of $4.2B at a net margin of 15.2%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 34.2%. Net debt stands at $1.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $77.16 (bear case) to $165.34 (bull case); at $168.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -24%, ALLE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($134.39) versus Asset-Based ($16.12). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International.
Full company description
Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International. The company offers door controls, door control system, and exit devices; doors, glass and door systems, and accessories; electronic security products and access control systems, including time, attendance, and workforce productivity; and locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems. It also provides services and software, such as inspection, maintenance, and repair services for its automatic entrance solutions; software as a service, including access control, platform integration, and workforce management solutions; and ongoing aftermarket services, and design and installation offerings. In addition, the company sells its products and solutions to end-users in commercial, institutional, and residential facilities, including education, healthcare, government, hospitality, retail, commercial office, and single and multi-family residential markets under the CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin brands. It sells its products and solutions through distribution and retail channels, such as specialty distribution, e-commerce, and wholesalers, as well as through various retail channels comprising do-it-yourself home improvement centers, online and e-commerce platforms, and small specialty showroom outlets. Allegion plc was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allegion plc reported revenue of $4.1B in FY2025 versus $2.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $644M in FY2025, compounding +7.4%/yr from FY2021.
ALLE screens 24% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Allegion (ALLE) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump After Mixed Analyst Target Changes
- Allegion (ALLE) Stock May Stay Fairly Priced Despite Q2 Earnings Focus
- Allegion plc Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Why Allegion Stock Is Rocketing Higher Today
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 491.80 | kr 496.43 | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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