Geo Group Inc (GEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Geo Group Inc stock $13.08, price $27.80, that is 52.9% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.25 – $35.35 · fair‑value band $9.16 – $20.49 · the $27.80 price screens above the $13.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
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GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care.
GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees.
The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.
Stock analysis
Geo Group Inc (GEO) currently trades at $27.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.08, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $36.18 per share, and 4 of the 17 models we run sit above the $27.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.21, and 13 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.16 (bear) to $20.49 (bull), the price of $27.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Geo Group Inc reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.7B Mid · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 2.13 · EPS (TTM) $1.26 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 110% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at −53%, GEO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.16Fair Value $13.08Bull$20.49
Price $27.80 · Downside -52.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.0M and none bought.
SaleMatthew AlbenceSenior VP, Client Relations2× since Aug 20, 2026: 21,797 shares, avg. $31.57$688,034Sep 11, 2026
SaleRonald A. BrackOfficer7,000 shares at $32.00$224,000Aug 21, 2026
SaleLindsay L. KorenDirector3,500 shares at $31.31$109,585Aug 13, 2026
SaleScott Michael KernanDirector6,633 shares at $15.24$101,087Mar 4, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14.1% vs 3.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale in government contracts provides limited moat signals, yet this is offset by weak cash conversion, high leverage and industry headwinds.
Main risk: Revenue stays dependent on per-diem payments tied to occupancy and policy priorities, which could directly hit demand and contract stability.
GEO sold some of its ICE facilities to the federal government while retaining the long-term operating contract. This transaction reduces owned assets and frees capital for other uses yet keeps revenue dependent on per-diem payments tied to occupancy and policy priorities. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does shedding ownership improve operational flexibility or heighten exposure to contract renewal risks?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 105 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Geo Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEO
Frequently asked questions
Is Geo Group Inc (GEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.08 versus a price of $27.80, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEO?
Our model-based fair value for Geo Group Inc is $13.08 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $27.80.
What is the quality score of GEO?
Geo Group Inc has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.08 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.16, optimistic scenario $20.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Geo Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.08, about 53% lower versus a price of $27.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.16, optimistic scenario $20.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Geo Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Geo Group Inc pay a dividend?
Geo Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Geo Group Inc has a dividend yield of 0.1%.
What is the intrinsic value of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Geo Group Inc it is $13.08 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $27.80. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Geo Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, GEO trades above its calculated fair value: price $27.80, fair value $13.08, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($27.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.08). For Geo Group Inc the two are $14.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Geo Group Inc worth?
The market values Geo Group Inc at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $27.80; our models calculate a fair value of $13.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEO?
Our models span a range for Geo Group Inc: cautious scenario $9.16, base $13.08, optimistic $20.49 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $27.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEO?
Geo Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.08 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 32.3 (reported for FY2025: 15.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 12.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GEO?
The PEG ratio of Geo Group Inc is 1.16 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Geo Group Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 20.1%, debt of 1.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEO from its 52-week high?
Geo Group Inc trades at $27.80, about 15% below its 52-week high of $32.77 and 110% above the low of $13.26 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Geo Group Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Geo Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $27.80, calculated fair value $13.08 (−53%), Quality Score 50/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEO calculated?
We run Geo Group Inc through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $13.08 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Geo Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $27.80. Our model-based fair value is $13.08, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Geo Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($9.16 to $20.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Geo Group Inc (GEO) come from?
Earnings per share at Geo Group Inc grew −3.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Geo Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The market capitalisation of Geo Group Inc is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Geo Group Inc is 2.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Earnings per share at Geo Group Inc are $1.26 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The dividend yield of Geo Group Inc is 0.1% (payout 3.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The net margin of Geo Group Inc is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Geo Group Inc is 20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Geo Group Inc is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The operating margin of Geo Group Inc is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Revenue at Geo Group Inc is growing +15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Earnings per share at Geo Group Inc are growing +71.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Geo Group Inc (GEO) generate?
The free cash flow of Geo Group Inc is −$125M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Geo Group Inc (GEO) carry?
The net debt of Geo Group Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 8, 2026