The GEO Group (GEO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $3.9B
The GEO Group
GEO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +3.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $24.27 (bear) to $40.45 (bull), base $32.36. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 43/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.11 – $35.35 · fair‑value band $24.27 – $40.45 · the $30.69 price screens below the $32.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
The GEO Group (GEO) currently trades at $30.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.36, implying the stock looks roughly 5.4% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The GEO Group generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.3%. Net debt stands at $1.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.27 (bear case) to $40.45 (bull case); at $30.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 145% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 5%, GEO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($35.64) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
Full company description
The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The GEO Group reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Geo Group (GEO) is on the Move, Here's Why the Trend Could be Sustainable
- The GEO Group, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- GEO Group Shares Decline Amid Higher Q2 Financial Results
- Is The Geo Group (GEO) Outperforming Other Business Services Stocks This Year?
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 491.80 | kr 496.43 | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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