Geo Group Inc (GEO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Geo Group Inc $12.89, price $31.96, upside -59.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.25 – $35.35 · fair‑value band $9.02 – $20.09 · the $31.96 price screens above the $12.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
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The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.
Stock analysis
Geo Group Inc (GEO) currently trades at $31.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.89, implying the stock looks roughly 148.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $35.64 per share, and 5 of the 17 models we run sit above the $31.96 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.71, and 12 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $9.02 (bear) to $20.09 (bull), the price of $31.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Geo Group Inc reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $254M in FY2025, compounding +34.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5B · P/E ratio 16.2 · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) $1.97 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 19.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 141% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −60%, GEO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.02Fair Value $12.89Bull $20.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.45 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.35/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Geo Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GEO
Frequently asked questions
Is Geo Group Inc (GEO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.89 versus a price of $31.96, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GEO?
Our model-based fair value for Geo Group Inc is $12.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $31.96.
What is the quality score of GEO?
Geo Group Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.89 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.02, optimistic scenario $20.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Geo Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.89, about −60% upside versus a price of $31.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $9.02, optimistic scenario $20.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Geo Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Geo Group Inc pay a dividend?
Geo Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Geo Group Inc it is $12.89 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $31.96. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Geo Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GEO trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.96, fair value $12.89, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GEO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.89). For Geo Group Inc the two are $19.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Geo Group Inc worth?
The market values Geo Group Inc at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $31.96; our models calculate a fair value of $12.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GEO?
Our models span a range for Geo Group Inc: cautious scenario $9.02, base $12.89, optimistic $20.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $31.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GEO?
Geo Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.89 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 37.2 (reported for FY2025: 17.3). Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 3.0, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of GEO?
The PEG ratio of Geo Group Inc is 1.82 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Geo Group Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 19.3%, debt of 1.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GEO from its 52-week high?
Geo Group Inc trades at $31.96, about 2% below its 52-week high of $32.77 and 141% above the low of $13.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Geo Group Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Geo Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $31.96, calculated fair value $12.89 (−60%), Quality Score 42/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GEO calculated?
We run Geo Group Inc through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Geo Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $31.96. Our model-based fair value is $12.89, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Geo Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($9.02 to $20.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Geo Group Inc (GEO) come from?
Earnings per share at Geo Group Inc grew −3.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −0.5 %, tax rate −2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Geo Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The market capitalisation of Geo Group Inc is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Geo Group Inc is 1.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Earnings per share at Geo Group Inc are $1.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The dividend yield of Geo Group Inc is 0.1% (payout 2.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The net margin of Geo Group Inc is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Geo Group Inc is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Geo Group Inc is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
The operating margin of Geo Group Inc is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Revenue at Geo Group Inc is growing +16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Geo Group Inc (GEO)?
Earnings per share at Geo Group Inc are growing +107% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Geo Group Inc (GEO) generate?
The free cash flow of Geo Group Inc is −$125M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Geo Group Inc (GEO) carry?
The net debt of Geo Group Inc is $1.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026