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The GEO Group (GEO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $3.4B

Price$29.96
Fair Value$32.36
Upside+8.0%
Quality95/100
Evidence: High Range $24.27 – $40.45

Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026

Analysis

The GEO Group (GEO) currently trades at $29.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.36 — implying the stock looks roughly 8.0% undervalued today. We read business quality at 95/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high) — always confirm before acting.

About the company

The GEO Group, Inc. is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO's diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO's worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 95 facilities totaling approximately 75,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 20,000 employees. The GEO Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Boca Raton, United States.

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Frequently asked questions

Is The GEO Group (GEO) undervalued?
As of Jun 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $32.36 versus a price of $29.96 — about +8% (undervalued). Model-based estimate, not financial advice.
What is the fair value of GEO?
Our 21-model fair value for The GEO Group is $32.36 (as of Jun 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $29.96.
What is the quality score of GEO?
The GEO Group has a Quality Score of 95/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data — nothing guessed.

Educational research only · not financial advice · no buy/sell recommendation. Model-based estimates are not certainties; their reliability depends on data quality and assumptions.