Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (ALCAR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · TR · Market cap 7.8B TRY
Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated today
Share price −10.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (149.53 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (44.67 TRY to 149.53 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 219.63 TRY – 1,751 TRY · fair‑value band 44.67 TRY – 149.53 TRY · the 720.50 TRY price screens above the 97.10 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.
Analysis
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (ALCAR) currently trades at 720.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 97.10 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 86.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. generated revenue of 7.6B TRY at a net margin of -6.2%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.3%. Net debt stands at 1.2B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 44.67 TRY (bear case) to 149.53 TRY (bull case); at 720.50 TRY, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -87%, ALCAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (477.45 TRY) versus Asset-Based (117.58 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the research, development, production, marketing, and sale of heating, cooling, ventilation, water pressurization, building automation, and energy efficiency monitoring products in Turkey, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally.
Full company description
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the research, development, production, marketing, and sale of heating, cooling, ventilation, water pressurization, building automation, and energy efficiency monitoring products in Turkey, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers heating products, including combi and commercial boilers, underfloor heating systems, expansion tanks, and heating control equipment; air conditioner equipment, such as multi air conditioners, commercial air conditioners, AC control equipment, and AC accessories; and commercial systems comprising air handling, packaged rooftop, fancoil, and laminar flow units, as well as liquid chillers and VRF systems. The company also provides water pressurization systems, which include submersible, centrifugal, and circulation pumps, as well as submersible motors, water boosters, and pump control equipment; heat pumps; and spare parts. In addition, it offers building management systems and after-sales services. The company sells its products under the Seciniz, Alarko, Carrier, Toshiba and Wolf brand names. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Alarko Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. in January 1998. Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported revenue of 7.5B TRL in FY2025 versus 1.3B TRL in FY2021, a compound +56.1%/yr. Reported net income was −686M TRL in FY2025.
ALCAR screens 87% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 880 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €967.60 | €212.97 | -78% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €284.30 | €122.46 | -57% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
| Shenzhen Han's CNC Technology Co 301200 | ¥303.01 | ¥37.62 | -88% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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