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Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (ALCAR) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TR · Market cap 7.8B TRY

AC Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. ALCAR · IS
Price720.50 TRY
Fair Value97.10 TRY
Upside-86.5%
Quality39/100
Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -6.2% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Narrow moat 0/100
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Evidence: Medium Range 44.67 TRY – 149.53 TRY Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 4, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated today

Share price −10.5% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (149.53 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide (44.67 TRY to 149.53 TRY). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

1,751 TRY 219.63 TRY Fair Value 97.10 TRY Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 219.63 TRY – 1,751 TRY · fair‑value band 44.67 TRY – 149.53 TRY · the 720.50 TRY price screens above the 97.10 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 4, 2026.

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Analysis

Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (ALCAR) currently trades at 720.50 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 97.10 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 86.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. generated revenue of 7.6B TRY at a net margin of -6.2%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.3%. Net debt stands at 1.2B TRY. Fundamentals as of Aug 4, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 44.67 TRY (bear case) to 149.53 TRY (bull case); at 720.50 TRY, the current price sits above that range. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -87%, ALCAR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 318.77 TRY 639.60 TRY 1,123 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 253.52 TRY 469.85 TRY 770.36 TRY 74
EV/EBITDA 137.66 TRY 190.09 TRY 242.53 TRY 54
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 328.53 TRY 615.17 TRY 1,290 TRY 38
5Y Revenue Exit 253.52 TRY 477.45 TRY 792.28 TRY 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 191.63 TRY 340.82 TRY 530.91 TRY 41
10Y Revenue Exit 267.15 TRY 493.23 TRY 865.57 TRY 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 234.26 TRY 391.38 TRY 636.76 TRY 37
Multiples
EV/EBITDA 137.66 TRY 190.09 TRY 242.53 TRY 54
EV/Revenue 216.26 TRY 317.35 TRY 418.45 TRY 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 87.75 TRY 117.58 TRY 175.50 TRY 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 318.77 TRY 639.60 TRY 1,123 TRY 80
Rev-Margin DCF 253.52 TRY 469.85 TRY 770.36 TRY 74

Widest divergence: DCF Models (477.45 TRY) versus Asset-Based (117.58 TRY). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 7.6B TRY
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6%
Net margin -6.2%
Return on equity -20.3%
Free cash flow 280M TRY FY2025
Operating margin -4.1%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) -43.73 TRY
EPS growth (YoY) +14.7%
Net debt 1.2B TRY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 4, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the research, development, production, marketing, and sale of heating, cooling, ventilation, water pressurization, building automation, and energy efficiency monitoring products in Turkey, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally.

Full company description

Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the research, development, production, marketing, and sale of heating, cooling, ventilation, water pressurization, building automation, and energy efficiency monitoring products in Turkey, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers heating products, including combi and commercial boilers, underfloor heating systems, expansion tanks, and heating control equipment; air conditioner equipment, such as multi air conditioners, commercial air conditioners, AC control equipment, and AC accessories; and commercial systems comprising air handling, packaged rooftop, fancoil, and laminar flow units, as well as liquid chillers and VRF systems. The company also provides water pressurization systems, which include submersible, centrifugal, and circulation pumps, as well as submersible motors, water boosters, and pump control equipment; heat pumps; and spare parts. In addition, it offers building management systems and after-sales services. The company sells its products under the Seciniz, Alarko, Carrier, Toshiba and Wolf brand names. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Alarko Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. in January 1998. Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported revenue of 7.5B TRL in FY2025 versus 1.3B TRL in FY2021, a compound +56.1%/yr. Reported net income was −686M TRL in FY2025.

Growth Quality 56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
7.5B TRY
Latest YoY
−12.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+51.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+56.8%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
−30.7%
Revenue +56.1%/yr
FY21 1.3B TRL
FY22 2.2B TRL
FY23 7.9B TRL
FY24 8.5B TRL
FY25 7.5B TRL
Net income
FY21 72.0M TRL
FY22 579M TRL
FY23 −594M TRL
FY24 540M TRL
FY25 −686M TRL

ALCAR screens 87% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCAR

Peer Group

Specialty Industrial Machinery · 880 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −80% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets -3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -4% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.59× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.09× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 1.52× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 23 · sector 23
PAST 0 · sector 27
HEALTH 71 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 22

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 4, 2026).

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Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 ¥43.20 ¥22.68 -48%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS kr 178.10 kr 124.54 -30%
NARI Technology Co 600406 ¥22.19 ¥18.71 -16%
Shenzhen Han's CNC Technology Co 301200 ¥303.01 ¥37.62 -88%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (ALCAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 97.10 TRY versus a price of 720.50 TRY, about −87% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALCAR?
Our model-based fair value for Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is 97.10 TRY (as of Aug 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 720.50 TRY.
What is the quality score of ALCAR?
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. has a Quality Score of 39/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. (ALCAR)?
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.6B TRY (latest available figure, as of Aug 4, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALCAR?
The net profit margin of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. is about -6.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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