Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock TRY 285, price TRY 541, that is 47.3% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 219.63 TRY – 1,751 TRY · fair‑value band 226.65 TRY – 335.06 TRY · the 541.00 TRY price screens above the 284.86 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. engages in the research, development, production, marketing, and sale of heating, cooling, ventilation, water pressurization, building automation, and energy efficiency monitoring products in Turkey, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and internationally.
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It offers heating products, including combi and commercial boilers, underfloor heating systems, expansion tanks, and heating control equipment; air conditioner equipment, such as multi air conditioners, commercial air conditioners, AC control equipment, and AC accessories; and commercial systems comprising air handling, packaged rooftop, fancoil, and laminar flow units, as well as liquid chillers and VRF systems.
The company also provides water pressurization systems, which include submersible, centrifugal, and circulation pumps, as well as submersible motors, water boosters, and pump control equipment; heat pumps; and spare parts. In addition, it offers building management systems and after-sales services.
The company sells its products under the Seciniz, Alarko, Carrier, Toshiba and Wolf brand names. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Alarko Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. and changed its name to Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. in January 1998.
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. was founded in 1954 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR) currently trades at 541.00 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 284.86 TRY, 47.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 301.83 TRY per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the 541.00 TRY price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 44.84 TRY, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 226.65 TRY (bear) to 335.06 TRY (bull), the price of 541.00 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 7.5B TRL in FY2025 versus 1.3B TRL in FY2021, a compound +56.1%/yr. Reported net income was −686M TRL in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 5.8B TRY (≈ $117M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.88 · EPS (TTM) −54.60 TRY · Dividend yield 12.9% · Net margin −7.5% · Return on equity −25.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin −2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −47%, ALCAR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear226.65 TRYFair Value 284.86 TRYBull335.06 TRY
Price 541.00 TRY · Downside -47.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +32.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−30.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.8% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price.
Compare Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 810 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−47.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−11.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−7.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−2.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−24.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)12.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.08× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.84× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow20.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.52× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 28
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCAR
Frequently asked questions
Is Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 284.86 TRY versus a price of 541.00 TRY, about 47% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALCAR?
Our model-based fair value for Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 284.86 TRY (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 541.00 TRY.
What is the quality score of ALCAR?
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 284.86 TRY (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario 226.65 TRY, optimistic scenario 335.06 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 284.86 TRY, about 47% lower versus a price of 541.00 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 226.65 TRY, optimistic scenario 335.06 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.9B TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS pay a dividend?
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS currently shows a dividend yield of 12.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS would have to grow free cash flow by +27.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.8 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALCAR use?
Our models discount Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS that is +27.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS grew +56.8 % a year. The price currently implies +27.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (+27.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.79 %: that much free cash flow Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS it is 284.86 TRY per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of 541.00 TRY. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, ALCAR trades above its calculated fair value: price 541.00 TRY, fair value 284.86 TRY, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALCAR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (541.00 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (284.86 TRY). For Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS the two are 256.14 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at about 5.8B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is 541.00 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 284.86 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALCAR?
Our models span a range for Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 226.65 TRY, base 284.86 TRY, optimistic 335.06 TRY per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price 541.00 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALCAR?
The PEG ratio of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.52 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity −25.6%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALCAR from its 52-week high?
Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at 541.00 TRY, about 45% below its 52-week high of 982.50 TRY and at the low of 541.00 TRY (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 284.86 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price 541.00 TRY, calculated fair value 284.86 TRY (−47%), Quality Score 41/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALCAR calculated?
We run Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 284.86 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was 541.00 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 284.86 TRY, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (335.06 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The market capitalisation of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 5.8B TRY (≈ $117M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 0.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Earnings per share at Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are −54.60 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The dividend yield of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 12.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The net margin of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −7.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −25.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
The operating margin of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Revenue at Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is growing −24.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +51.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR)?
Earnings per share at Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are growing +14.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALCAR) carry?
The net debt of Alarko Carrier Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.2B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 2, 2026