Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme €20.10, price €6.70, upside +200.0%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.53 – €19.05 · fair‑value band €12.59 – €30.52 · the €6.70 price screens below the €20.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Cogra 48 engages in manufacturing wood pellets in France and internationally.
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Cogra 48 engages in manufacturing wood pellets in France and internationally. It also offers Harman pellet stoves and wood pellet boilers; services, such as consulting, project planning, and assistance in project management; and technical advice, boiler room layout, project design and dimensioning, power and distribution study, silo design study, and supply services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Mende, France.
Stock analysis
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) currently trades at €6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.10, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €20.53 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the €6.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.18, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €12.59 (bear) to €30.52 (bull), the price of €6.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme reported revenue of €34.3M in FY2025 versus €27.8M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €23.0M · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) €−0.4800 · Net margin −13.7% · Return on equity −20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1% · Operating margin −13.8% · Revenue (TTM) €34.3M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 200%, ALCOG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €12.59Fair Value €20.10Bull €30.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.5% (2020) → −13.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.4% a year for the price.
Compare Cogra 48 Société Anonyme with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lumber & Wood Production · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth85% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cogra 48 Société Anonyme Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCOG
Frequently asked questions
Is Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.10 versus a price of €6.70, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALCOG?
Our model-based fair value for Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is €20.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.70.
What is the quality score of ALCOG?
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €20.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.59, optimistic scenario €30.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cogra 48 Société Anonyme stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €20.10, about +200% upside versus a price of €6.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €12.59, optimistic scenario €30.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €34.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cogra 48 Société Anonyme would have to grow free cash flow by -10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALCOG use?
Our models discount Cogra 48 Société Anonyme at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.21, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cogra 48 Société Anonyme that is -10.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies -10.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (-10.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.34 %: that much free cash flow Cogra 48 Société Anonyme produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cogra 48 Société Anonyme it is €20.10 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €6.70. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cogra 48 Société Anonyme stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALCOG trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.70, fair value €20.10, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALCOG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€20.10). For Cogra 48 Société Anonyme the two are €13.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cogra 48 Société Anonyme worth?
The market values Cogra 48 Société Anonyme at about €23.0M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €6.70; our models calculate a fair value of €20.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALCOG?
Our models span a range for Cogra 48 Société Anonyme: cautious scenario €12.59, base €20.10, optimistic €30.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €6.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −20.0%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALCOG from its 52-week high?
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme trades at €6.70, about 18% below its 52-week high of €8.22 and 47% above the low of €4.56 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €20.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cogra 48 Société Anonyme?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Simpson Manufacturing Co, UFP Industries, Inc, Boise Cascade Company, Century Plyboards (India) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cogra 48 Société Anonyme stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €6.70, calculated fair value €20.10 (+200%), Quality Score 55/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALCOG calculated?
We run Cogra 48 Société Anonyme through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €20.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Cogra 48 Société Anonyme currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €6.70. Our model-based fair value is €20.10, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cogra 48 Société Anonyme right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€12.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€12.59 to €30.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) come from?
Earnings per share at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme grew +21.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin +10.2 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme
How large is the market capitalisation of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The market capitalisation of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is €23.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Earnings per share at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme are €−0.4800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The net margin of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is −13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is −20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
The operating margin of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is −13.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Revenue at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is growing +85.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Earnings per share at Cogra 48 Société Anonyme are growing −84.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) carry?
The net debt of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is €3.7M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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