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Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · FR · Market cap €24.1M

C4 Cogra 48 Société Anonyme ALCOG · PA
Price€6.96
Fair Value€14.05
Upside+101.9%
Quality55/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -13.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/11)
Narrow moat 13/100
Evidence: Low Range €9.50 – €18.59 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 7 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price −1.7% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 102% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€9.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (€9.50 to €18.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€19.05 €4.53 Fair Value €14.05 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4.53 – €19.05 · fair‑value band €9.50 – €18.59 · the €6.96 price screens below the €14.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) currently trades at €6.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.05, implying the stock looks roughly 101.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cogra 48 Société Anonyme generated revenue of €34.3M at a net margin of -13.7%. Revenue grew 85.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.0%. Net debt stands at €3.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €9.50 (bear case) to €18.59 (bull case); at €6.96, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -32% fair-value upside, at 102%, ALCOG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €12.32 €18.96 €27.37 80
Rev-Margin DCF €9.58 €16.27 €24.49 74
NCAV (Graham) €3.12 €4.18 €6.23 50
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €12.45 €19.86 €29.83 38
5Y Revenue Exit €9.58 €16.19 €24.67 39
10Y Revenue Exit €10.37 €16.31 €24.47 36
Multiples
EV/Revenue €7.97 €12.51 €17.06 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.12 €4.18 €6.23 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €12.32 €18.96 €27.37 80
Rev-Margin DCF €9.58 €16.27 €24.49 74

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€16.31) versus Asset-Based (€4.18). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €34.3M
Revenue growth (YoY) +85.4%
Net margin -13.7%
Return on equity -20.0%
Free cash flow €5.8M FY2023
Operating margin -13.8%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) €-0.4800
EPS growth (YoY) -84.8%
Net debt €3.7M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 72
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cogra 48 Société Anonyme engages in manufacturing wood pellets in France and internationally. It also offers Harman pellet stoves and wood pellet boilers; services, such as consulting, project planning, and assistance in project management; and technical advice, boiler room layout, project design and dimensioning, power and distribution study, silo design …

Full company description

Cogra 48 Société Anonyme engages in manufacturing wood pellets in France and internationally. It also offers Harman pellet stoves and wood pellet boilers; services, such as consulting, project planning, and assistance in project management; and technical advice, boiler room layout, project design and dimensioning, power and distribution study, silo design study, and supply services. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Mende, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cogra 48 Société Anonyme reported revenue of €34.3M in FY2025 versus €27.8M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.7M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 44/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€34.3M
Latest YoY
−12.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−6.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Revenue +5.4%/yr
FY21 €27.8M
FY22 €42.1M
FY23 €51.2M
FY24 €39.0M
FY25 €34.3M
Net income
FY21 €1.4M
FY22 €2.9M
FY23 €4.1M
FY24 €624K
FY25 −€4.7M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +21.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.7 pp

of which total revenue +12.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.8 pp

EBIT margin +10.2 pp
Tax rate −0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cogra 48 Société Anonyme Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCOG

Peer Group

Lumber & Wood Production · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +102% · Top 25%
Return on assets -8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -14% · Below median
Revenue growth 85% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.53× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Lumber & Wood Production median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.32× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.81× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 4.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 16
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 0 · sector 0
HEALTH 74 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 32

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Lumber & Wood Production stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Simpson Manufacturing Co SSD $188.80 $147.92 -22%
West Fraser Timber Co WFG C$98.54 C$51.55 -48%
UFP Industries, Inc UFPI $85.93 $108.78 +27%
Stella-Jones Inc SJ C$78.93 C$96.01 +22%
Boise Cascade Company BCC $76.06 $51.92 -32%
Century Plyboards (India) Limited CENTURYPLY ₹799.50 ₹201.01 -75%
DeHua TB New Decoration Material Co 002043 ¥11.74 ¥14.78 +26%
Canfor Corporation CFP C$14.17 C$4.54 -68%
Interfor Corporation IFP C$13.45 C$6.43 -52%
Kangxin New Materials Co 600076 ¥3.05 ¥0.6700 -78%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.05 versus a price of €6.96, about +102% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALCOG?
Our model-based fair value for Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is €14.05 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €6.96.
What is the quality score of ALCOG?
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme (ALCOG)?
Cogra 48 Société Anonyme reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €34.3M (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALCOG?
The net profit margin of Cogra 48 Société Anonyme is about -13.7%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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