Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 21, 2026: fair value of Allied Group Ltd $5.09, price $5.00, upside +1.9%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.50 – $9.94 · fair‑value band $3.40 – $7.10 · the $5.00 price screens below the $5.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Allied Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property investment and development, and financial service businesses in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally.
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Allied Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the property investment and development, and financial service businesses in Hong Kong, the People's Republic of China, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Investment and Finance, Consumer Finance, Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management, Elderly Care Services, and Healthcare Services segments. The Investment and Finance segment is involved in the investment activities, and provision of mortgage loan and term loan financing services. The Consumer Finance segment offers consumer, small and medium enterprises, and other financing products. The Property Development segment engages in the development and sale of properties. The Property Investment segment is involved in the property rental, as well as hotel operations managed by third parties. The Property Management segment provides property management, and cleaning and security guarding services. The Elderly Care Services segment offers elderly care services and related business operations. The Healthcare services segment engages in the operations of hospitals. It also engages in the property holding; securities trading; money lending; management and consultancy; real estate agency; and corporate and building management and maintenance services. In addition, the company involved in the medical equipment supplies distribution activities; and offers credits including consumer finance. Allied Group Limited was incorporated in 1972 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Allied Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Lee and Lee Trust.
Stock analysis
Allied Group Ltd ADR (ALEDY) currently trades at $5.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.09, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $34.23 per share, and 12 of the 13 models we run sit above the $5.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.79, and 1 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.40 (bear) to $7.10 (bull), the price of $5.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Allied Group Ltd ADR reported revenue of HK$15.1B in FY2025 versus HK$7.3B in FY2021, a compound +19.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.2B in FY2025, compounding −24.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $703M · P/S ratio 0.04 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7000 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 14.7% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 31.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 2%, ALEDY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.40Fair Value $5.09Bull $7.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+133.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−42.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−48.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−48.8% vs −48.8%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.45% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 26.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 329 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+100.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.9% · Below median
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)14.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)31.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allied Group Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALEDY
Frequently asked questions
Is Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.09 versus the last price from Aug 21, 2026 of $5.00, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALEDY?
Our model-based fair value for Allied Group Ltd ADR is $5.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 21, 2026): $5.00.
What is the quality score of ALEDY?
Allied Group Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.40, optimistic scenario $7.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allied Group Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.09, about +2% upside versus the last price from Aug 21, 2026 of $5.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $3.40, optimistic scenario $7.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Allied Group Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$15.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Allied Group Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Allied Group Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allied Group Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +35.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALEDY use?
Our models discount Allied Group Ltd ADR at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allied Group Ltd ADR that is +35.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Allied Group Ltd ADR grew +20.9 % a year. The price currently implies +35.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Allied Group Ltd ADR (+35.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.48 %: that much free cash flow Allied Group Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allied Group Ltd ADR it is $5.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $5.00. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allied Group Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALEDY trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.00, fair value $5.09, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALEDY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.09). For Allied Group Ltd ADR the two are $0.0938 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allied Group Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Allied Group Ltd ADR at about $703M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $5.00; our models calculate a fair value of $5.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALEDY?
Our models span a range for Allied Group Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $3.40, base $5.09, optimistic $7.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $5.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allied Group Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALEDY from its 52-week high?
Allied Group Ltd ADR trades at $5.00, at its 52-week high of $5.00 and 7% above the low of $4.68 (as of Aug 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allied Group Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allied Group Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $5.00, calculated fair value $5.09 (+2%), Quality Score 46/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALEDY calculated?
We run Allied Group Ltd ADR through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Allied Group Ltd ADR currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 21, 2026 and stands at $5.00. Our model-based fair value is $5.09, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allied Group Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($3.40 to $7.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Allied Group Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The market capitalisation of Allied Group Ltd ADR is $703M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allied Group Ltd ADR is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Earnings per share at Allied Group Ltd ADR are $−0.7000. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The dividend yield of Allied Group Ltd ADR is 6.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The net margin of Allied Group Ltd ADR is 14.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allied Group Ltd ADR is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allied Group Ltd ADR is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
The operating margin of Allied Group Ltd ADR is 31.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Revenue at Allied Group Ltd ADR is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY)?
Earnings per share at Allied Group Ltd ADR are growing +142% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allied Group Ltd (ALEDY) carry?
The net debt of Allied Group Ltd ADR is HK$5.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026