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Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alfa Laval AB $35.60, price $59.50, upside -40.2%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AL
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Alfa Laval AB
ALFVF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $35.60 · Strongly overvalued (−40.2%)
✓Quality 64/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.9 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 66/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.63 – $59.50 · fair‑value band $21.53 – $48.26 · the $59.50 price screens above the $35.60 fair value. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Alfa Laval AB (publ) provides heat transfer, separation, and fluid handling products and solutions worldwide. The company operates through three divisions: Energy, Food & Pharma, and Ocean.
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Alfa Laval AB (publ) provides heat transfer, separation, and fluid handling products and solutions worldwide. The company operates through three divisions: Energy, Food & Pharma, and Ocean. It offers ballast water management systems; oil/gas-fired steam and composite steam boilers, exhaust gas economizers, electric steam boilers, and exhaust gas steam boilers; and exhaust gas cleaning products, as well as decanters and separators. The company also provides sensing and control, cleaning validation, and condition monitoring automation products; hygienic fittings, hygienic tubes, ultrapure fittings, and ultrapure tubes; agitators, tank mixers, and powder mixers; and centrifugal pumps, circumferential piston pumps, rotary lobe pumps, twin screws, three screw pumps, gear pumps, and reciprocating pumps. In addition, it offers rotary jet heads, rotary spray heads, wall mounted cleaning devices for tank cleaning, and static spray balls; and tank covers and accessories, as well as valves. Further, the company provides plate heat exchangers, air cooled heat exchangers, scraped surface heat exchangers, and tubular heat exchangers. It serves energy and utilities, home and personal care, food, dairy and beverage, marine and transportation, pharma and biotech, and water and wastewater industries. Alfa Laval AB (publ) was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) currently trades at $59.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.60, 40.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $37.12 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $59.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.99, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21.53 (bear) to $48.26 (bull), the price of $59.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alfa Laval AB reported revenue of 69.5B SEK in FY2025 versus 40.9B SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was 8.3B SEK in FY2025, compounding +14.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $24.6B · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 3.35 · EPS (TTM) $2.11 · Net margin 11.9% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% · Revenue (TTM) 68.8B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −40%, ALFVF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $21.53
Fair Value $35.60
Bull $48.26
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.60 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$17.10
$27.06
$42.30
79
Growth DCF
$17.39
$26.19
$38.83
78
Owner Earnings
$22.45
$35.42
$55.27
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$17.10
$27.06
$42.30
79
Owner Earnings
$22.45
$35.42
$55.27
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$18.68
$30.92
$46.59
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$26.37
$45.33
$67.57
74
5Y P/E Exit
$23.74
$40.40
$57.95
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$17.30
$28.35
$43.28
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$22.85
$38.37
$59.33
67
10Y P/E Exit
$21.17
$34.94
$51.97
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$13.52
$42.53
$56.62
64
Lynch FV
$9.31
$13.30
$17.29
61
PEG = 1.0
$9.31
$13.30
$17.29
57
EPV
$22.09
$25.87
$29.18
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$7.75
$16.12
$25.57
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$7.75
$12.88
$16.92
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$31.31
$41.75
$52.18
63
P/S Multiple
$25.12
$33.49
$41.86
58
P/B Multiple
$25.35
$33.79
$42.24
55
EV/EBIT
$38.58
$51.64
$64.71
66
EV/EBITDA
$35.23
$47.17
$59.11
67
EV/Revenue
$20.49
$29.53
$38.57
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$5.22
$6.99
$10.43
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$17.39
$26.19
$38.83
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$18.68
$30.86
$44.87
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$12.47
$15.86
$24.95
74
ROIC Compounder
$23.74
$30.17
$37.63
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$25.98
$37.12
$48.26
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
64/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
55
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
48
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.9% vs 11.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in SEK, Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.2% a year for the price and +3.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%
ALFVF screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Alfa Laval (OM:ALFA) Lands Role In One Of Europe’s Biggest Carbon Capture Projects
- Angle Seat Valve Market Forecasts Growth from $0.38B (2026) to $0.53B by 2032, Profiling Festo, Danfoss, Parker Hannifin, Alfa Laval & 2
- Alfa Laval selected by Saipem to supply heat transfer technology for one of Europe's largest carbon capture projects
- Alfa Laval Reaches Major Milestone with 100 Prodec Oil Plus Units Sold Across the U.S. Ethanol Industry
Compare Alfa Laval AB with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 782 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc GEV | $950.49 | $142.61 | −85% |
| SIE SIE | €271.90 | €150.42 | −45% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $433.27 | $173.12 | −60% |
| Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH | $970.37 | $494.81 | −49% |
| Emerson Electric Co EMR | $155.10 | $62.54 | −60% |
| Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW | $257.28 | $153.33 | −40% |
| Cummins Inc CMI | $516.57 | $359.11 | −30% |
| AMETEK, Inc AME | $250.74 | $125.77 | −50% |
| Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK | $442.45 | $139.31 | −69% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 362.00 | kr 193.59 | −47% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.60 versus a price of $59.50, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALFVF?
Our model-based fair value for Alfa Laval AB is $35.60 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $59.50.
What is the quality score of ALFVF?
Alfa Laval AB has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.60 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.53, optimistic scenario $48.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfa Laval AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.60, about −40% upside versus a price of $59.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.53, optimistic scenario $48.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Alfa Laval AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 68.8B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfa Laval AB would have to grow free cash flow by +20.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALFVF use?
Our models discount Alfa Laval AB at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfa Laval AB that is +20.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfa Laval AB grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +20.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfa Laval AB (+20.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.49 %: that much free cash flow Alfa Laval AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfa Laval AB it is $35.60 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $59.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfa Laval AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ALFVF trades above its calculated fair value: price $59.50, fair value $35.60, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALFVF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($59.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.60). For Alfa Laval AB the two are $23.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfa Laval AB worth?
The market values Alfa Laval AB at about $24.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $59.50; our models calculate a fair value of $35.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALFVF?
Our models span a range for Alfa Laval AB: cautious scenario $21.53, base $35.60, optimistic $48.26 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $59.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALFVF?
Alfa Laval AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.60 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ALFVF?
The PEG ratio of Alfa Laval AB is 3.03 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfa Laval AB (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfa Laval AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfa Laval AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $59.50, calculated fair value $35.60 (−40%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALFVF calculated?
We run Alfa Laval AB through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfa Laval AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $59.50. Our model-based fair value is $35.60, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfa Laval AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($48.26). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.53 to $48.26) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) come from?
Earnings per share at Alfa Laval AB grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alfa Laval AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
The market capitalisation of Alfa Laval AB is $24.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfa Laval AB is 3.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Laval AB are $2.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
The net margin of Alfa Laval AB is 11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfa Laval AB is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfa Laval AB is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Revenue at Alfa Laval AB is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Laval AB are growing −4.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alfa Laval AB (ALFVF) carry?
The net debt of Alfa Laval AB is 13.9B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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