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Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock TRY 4.34, price TRY 4.96, that is 12.5% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials TR · ISIN TRAALKAW91D8

AK Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS logo Thin data Nov 9, 2026

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

ALKA · IS
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 13% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Profit last quarter +69% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +48.6 %/yr in TRY)
Fair value 4.34 TRY · Overvalued
Quality 27/100
Loss-making · -4.2% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/12)
Narrow moat 14/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

15.99 TRY 0.9215 TRY Fair Value 4.34 TRY Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 0.9215 TRY – 15.99 TRY · fair‑value band 3.10 TRY – 5.58 TRY · the 4.96 TRY price screens above the 4.34 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS manufactures and sells woodfree offset, coated, and office papers in Turkey.

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Its woodfree offset papers include offset white writing and printing papers, bristol, and copy quality offset white writing and printing papers; coated papers comprise glossy, matt, and one side coated papers, as well as label papers; and special papers include envelope, blueprint, drawing, map, optical reader, kraft shopping bag, ivory, chamois, white kraft, and wall papers, as well as office papers under the Platinum Copy, Gold Copy, Best Copy, and All Copy brand names.

The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Izmir, Turkey. Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS operates as a subsidiary of Alkim Alkali Kimya A.S.

Stock analysis

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) currently trades at 4.96 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.34 TRY, 13% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 2.17 TRY per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 4.96 TRY price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 0.4900 TRY, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 3.10 TRY (bear) to 5.58 TRY (bull), the price of 4.96 TRY sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported revenue of 2.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 701M TRY in FY2021, a compound +42.4%/yr. Reported net income was −108M TRY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 3.6B TRY (≈ $72.7M) Micro · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) −0.1500 TRY · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity −5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 22.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.8% · Revenue (TTM) 2.8B TRY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −13%, ALKA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 3.10 TRY Fair Value 4.34 TRY Bull 5.58 TRY
Price 4.96 TRY · Downside -12.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV 0.4400 TRY 0.4900 TRY 0.5300 TRY 74
ROIC Compounder 0.4400 TRY 0.4900 TRY 0.5300 TRY 72
EV/EBITDA 1.55 TRY 2.17 TRY 2.79 TRY 67
All 6 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV 0.4400 TRY 0.4900 TRY 0.5300 TRY 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT 1.56 TRY 2.19 TRY 2.81 TRY 66
EV/EBITDA 1.55 TRY 2.17 TRY 2.79 TRY 67
EV/Revenue 1.32 TRY 2.01 TRY 2.71 TRY 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 1.41 TRY 1.89 TRY 2.82 TRY 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 0.4400 TRY 0.4900 TRY 0.5300 TRY 72

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 27/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 19
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 11
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 62
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 0
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 40
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +34.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.5%
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALKA screens overvalued: fair value 13% below the price. Compare with UPM-Kymmene Oyj →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 116 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −12.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −3.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −4.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 4.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.31× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 29.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG 4.12× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)17 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)21 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$4.62 HK$7.54 +63% vs ALKA
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 6,425 IDR 10,483 IDR +63% vs ALKA
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 898.00 CLP 1,241 CLP +38% vs ALKA
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥15.86 ¥21.06 +33% vs ALKA
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.94 €24.27 +22% vs ALKA
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥14.12 ¥16.93 +20% vs ALKA
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €22.46 €21.19 −6% vs ALKA
The Navigator Company NVG €3.04 €2.49 −18% vs ALKA
Billerud AB BILL kr 88.20 kr 68.44 −22% vs ALKA
Suzano S.A SUZ $9.66 $5.24 −46% vs ALKA

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Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALKA

Frequently asked questions

Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.34 TRY versus a price of 4.96 TRY, about 13% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALKA?
Our model-based fair value for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 4.34 TRY (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.96 TRY.
What is the quality score of ALKA?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 4.34 TRY (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.58 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 4.34 TRY, about 13% lower versus a price of 4.96 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, optimistic scenario 5.58 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.8B TRY (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS it is 4.34 TRY per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 4.96 TRY. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ALKA trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.96 TRY, fair value 4.34 TRY, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.96 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (4.34 TRY). For Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS the two are 0.6200 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS worth?
The market values Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS at about 3.6B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 4.96 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 4.34 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALKA?
Our models span a range for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS: cautious scenario 3.10 TRY, base 4.34 TRY, optimistic 5.58 TRY per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 4.96 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ALKA?
The PEG ratio of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 4.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −5.4%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALKA from its 52-week high?
Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS trades at 4.96 TRY, about 66% below its 52-week high of 14.59 TRY and 13% above the low of 4.40 TRY (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 4.34 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 4.96 TRY, calculated fair value 4.34 TRY (−13%), Quality Score 27/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALKA calculated?
We run Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS through 6 models from 4 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 4.34 TRY builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 4.96 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 4.34 TRY, about 13% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS right now?
A fairly wide model range (3.10 TRY to 5.58 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS

How large is the market capitalisation of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The market capitalisation of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 3.6B TRY (≈ $72.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 1.24 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Earnings per share at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are −0.1500 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The net margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 22.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
The operating margin of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Revenue at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA)?
Earnings per share at Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS are growing +69.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) generate?
The free cash flow of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is −569M TRY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (ALKA) carry?
The net debt of Alkim Kagit Sanayi ve Ticaret AS is 227M TRY (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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