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MGI Digital (ALMDG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of MGI Digital €20.75, price €8.52, upside +143.5%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · FR · ISIN FR0010353888

MD Some data Sep 23, 2026

MGI Digital

ALMDG · PA

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value €20.75 · Strongly undervalued (+144%)
!Quality 40/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 10.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 18 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€41.95 €8.20 Fair Value €20.75 Aug 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €8.20 – €41.95 · fair‑value band €15.86 – €25.64 · the €8.52 price screens below the €20.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

MGI Digital Technology engages in manufacturing of digital printing and finishing presses in France and internationally.

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MGI Digital Technology engages in manufacturing of digital printing and finishing presses in France and internationally. The company's products include AlphaJET, a factory 4.0 solution for the printing and packaging sector; JETvarnish 3D Evo, a solution for offset and digital printers; JETvarnish 3D, a digital selective varnishing and hot foil stamping solution; JETVARNISH 3DS, a selective varnish and hot foil stamping finishing solution; JETvarnish 3D One that uses one type of coating to produce 2D or 3D tactile coatings in fixed or variable data; JETvarnish 3D Web, a first digital reel-to-reel finishing press; and JETvarnish 3D Web 400, a digital finishing, selective varnish, hot foil stamping & variable data in a single pass. It also provides PressCard Pro, an industrial lamination presses for various plastic, synthetic and paper substrates; PunchCard Pro, a hydraulic and semi-automatic cutting unit; and MGI Connect, which provides online service to get the most out of the MGI equipment. It also serves commercial printing, edition, packaging, web to print, photo prints, subcontracting, adhesive labels, film and sleeves markets. MGI Digital Technology was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in Fresnes, France.

Stock analysis

MGI Digital (ALMDG) currently trades at €8.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €20.75, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €55.05 per share, and 12 of the 15 models we run sit above the €8.52 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €7.08, and 3 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €15.86 (bear) to €25.64 (bull), the price of €8.52 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

MGI Digital reported revenue of €58.1M in FY2025 versus €38.8M in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was €6.7M in FY2025, compounding +5.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €65.3M · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) €1.09 · Net margin 11.4% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 12.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 144%, ALMDG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €15.86 Fair Value €20.75 Bull €25.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.7973 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV €6.45 €7.08 €7.59 74
Owner Earnings €4.55 €7.78 €13.40 72
ROIC Compounder €6.45 €7.08 €7.59 70
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €4.55 €7.78 €13.40 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €7.41 €51.66 €72.49 61
Lynch FV €26.69 €38.12 €49.56 59
PEG = 1.0 €26.69 €38.12 €49.56 55
EPV €6.45 €7.08 €7.59 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple €22.87 €30.50 €38.12 63
P/S Multiple €13.89 €18.52 €23.15 58
P/B Multiple €13.89 €18.52 €23.15 55
EV/EBIT €15.88 €20.76 €25.65 66
EV/EBITDA €22.73 €29.91 €37.08 67
EV/Revenue €8.62 €11.80 €14.98 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €11.93 €15.99 €23.86 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €16.22 €15.59 €12.68 68
ROIC Compounder €6.45 €7.08 €7.59 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €38.54 €55.05 €71.57 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 6
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs −1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 220 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +141% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −32% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 7.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.51× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.11× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.7× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 59
PAST (return on equity)18 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 40

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥33.18 ¥46.76 +41%
Quanta Computer Inc 2382 338.50 TWD 228.14 TWD −33%
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$36.92 HK$33.70 −9%
Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 ¥84.67 ¥35.54 −58%
Everpure, Inc P $110.89 $51.46 −54%
HP Inc HPQ $32.16 $51.90 +61%

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MGI Digital · Fair Value
€20.75 +59%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MGI Digital Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALMDG

Frequently asked questions

Is MGI Digital (ALMDG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €20.75 versus a price of €8.52, about +144% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALMDG?
Our model-based fair value for MGI Digital is €20.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.52.
What is the quality score of ALMDG?
MGI Digital has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €20.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.86, optimistic scenario €25.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MGI Digital stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €20.75, about +144% upside versus a price of €8.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €15.86, optimistic scenario €25.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
MGI Digital reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €66.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MGI Digital it is €20.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €8.52. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MGI Digital stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ALMDG trades below its calculated fair value: price €8.52, fair value €20.75, a gap of about +144% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALMDG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€20.75). For MGI Digital the two are €12.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MGI Digital worth?
The market values MGI Digital at about €65.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €8.52; our models calculate a fair value of €20.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALMDG?
Our models span a range for MGI Digital: cautious scenario €15.86, base €20.75, optimistic €25.64 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €8.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALMDG?
MGI Digital trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €20.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
Balance-sheet figures for MGI Digital (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALMDG from its 52-week high?
MGI Digital trades at €8.52, about 41% below its 52-week high of €14.38 and 4% above the low of €8.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €20.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MGI Digital?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Western Digital Corporation, Wiwynn Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MGI Digital stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €8.52, calculated fair value €20.75 (+144%), Quality Score 40/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALMDG calculated?
We run MGI Digital through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €20.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. MGI Digital currently trades 144 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €8.52. Our model-based fair value is €20.75, about +144% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MGI Digital right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€15.86). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Key figures of MGI Digital

How large is the market capitalisation of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
The market capitalisation of MGI Digital is €65.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MGI Digital is 0.89 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
Earnings per share at MGI Digital are €1.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
The net margin of MGI Digital is 11.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MGI Digital is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MGI Digital is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
The operating margin of MGI Digital is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
Revenue at MGI Digital is growing −32.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MGI Digital (ALMDG)?
Earnings per share at MGI Digital are growing −57.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MGI Digital (ALMDG) generate?
The free cash flow of MGI Digital is −€6.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does MGI Digital (ALMDG) hold?
MGI Digital holds more cash than debt, €7.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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