ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock MXN 25.31, price MXN 15.87, upside +59.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.09 MXN – 26.48 MXN · fair‑value band 16.74 MXN – 37.41 MXN · the 15.87 MXN price screens below the 25.31 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals.
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The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets.
It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets.
In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Stock analysis
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) currently trades at 15.87 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 25.31 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 37.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 16.80 MXN per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the 15.87 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 6.37 MXN, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 16.74 MXN (bear) to 37.41 MXN (bull), the price of 15.87 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 127B MXN in FY2025 versus 156B MXN in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B MXN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 33.1B MXN (≈ $1.8B) Small · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) 1.83 MXN · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 2.9% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 93% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −55% fair-value upside, at 59%, ALPEKA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear16.74 MXNFair Value 25.31 MXNBull37.41 MXN
Price 15.87 MXN · Upside +59.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.51 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.5% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 721 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+59.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets−2.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)2.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)10.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALPEKA
Frequently asked questions
Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 25.31 MXN versus a price of 15.87 MXN, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALPEKA?
Our model-based fair value for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 25.31 MXN (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 15.87 MXN.
What is the quality score of ALPEKA?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 25.31 MXN (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario 16.74 MXN, optimistic scenario 37.41 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 25.31 MXN, about +59% upside versus a price of 15.87 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 16.74 MXN, optimistic scenario 37.41 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 133B MXN (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of 2.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALPEKA use?
Our models discount ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.04, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V that is +5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (+5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.48 %: that much free cash flow ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V it is 25.31 MXN per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 15.87 MXN. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, ALPEKA trades below its calculated fair value: price 15.87 MXN, fair value 25.31 MXN, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALPEKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (15.87 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (25.31 MXN). For ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V the two are 9.44 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V at about 33.1B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 15.87 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 25.31 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALPEKA?
Our models span a range for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 16.74 MXN, base 25.31 MXN, optimistic 37.41 MXN per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 15.87 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALPEKA?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 25.31 MXN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 6 fiscal years (2016 to 2022), reported earnings: 6.4. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 1.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALPEKA from its 52-week high?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V trades at 15.87 MXN, about 3% below its 52-week high of 16.42 MXN and 93% above the low of 8.23 MXN (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 25.31 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Givaudan SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 15.87 MXN, calculated fair value 25.31 MXN (+59%), Quality Score 52/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALPEKA calculated?
We run ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 25.31 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 37 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 15.87 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 25.31 MXN, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (16.74 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (16.74 MXN to 37.41 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The market capitalisation of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 33.1B MXN (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Earnings per share at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V are 1.83 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The dividend yield of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 2.0% (payout 17.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The net margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 2.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The operating margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Revenue at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is growing +21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Earnings per share at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) carry?
The net debt of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 29.6B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 28, 2026