ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.09 MXN – 26.38 MXN · fair‑value band 13.37 MXN – 36.25 MXN · the 13.85 MXN price screens below the 22.16 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals.
Show more
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals. The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets. It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets. In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Stock analysis
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) currently trades at 13.85 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.16 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 37.5% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 20.54 MXN per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the 13.85 MXN price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 3.44 MXN, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 13.37 MXN (bear) to 36.25 MXN (bull), the price of 13.85 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 127B MXN in FY2025 versus 156B MXN in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B MXN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 28.9B MXN (≈ $1.7B) · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) −1.94 MXN · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity −11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% · Operating margin 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 60%, ALPEKA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.37 MXNFair Value 22.16 MXNBull 36.25 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.5% (2020) → 2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 706 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−63% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.56× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALPEKA
Frequently asked questions
Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.16 MXN versus a price of 13.85 MXN, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALPEKA?
Our model-based fair value for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 22.16 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.85 MXN.
What is the quality score of ALPEKA?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 22.16 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.37 MXN, optimistic scenario 36.25 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 22.16 MXN, about +60% upside versus a price of 13.85 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 13.37 MXN, optimistic scenario 36.25 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 122B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.53% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +4.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALPEKA use?
Our models discount ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.05, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V that is +4.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +4.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (+4.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.73 %: that much free cash flow ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V it is 22.16 MXN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 13.85 MXN. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ALPEKA trades below its calculated fair value: price 13.85 MXN, fair value 22.16 MXN, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALPEKA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (13.85 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (22.16 MXN). For ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V the two are 8.31 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V at about 28.9B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 13.85 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 22.16 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALPEKA?
Our models span a range for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 13.37 MXN, base 22.16 MXN, optimistic 36.25 MXN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 13.85 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Balance-sheet figures for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −11.4%, debt of 1.56 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALPEKA from its 52-week high?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V trades at 13.85 MXN, about 7% below its 52-week high of 13.00 MXN and 72% above the low of 8.07 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 22.16 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 13.85 MXN, calculated fair value 22.16 MXN (+60%), Quality Score 51/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALPEKA calculated?
We run ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 22.16 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The model range is unusually wide (13.37 MXN to 36.25 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The market capitalisation of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 28.9B MXN (≈ $1.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 0.22 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Earnings per share at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V are −1.94 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The dividend yield of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 2.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The net margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is −11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
The operating margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Revenue at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is growing −15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
Earnings per share at ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V are growing +22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) carry?
The net debt of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 29.6B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V in the live analysis
One click puts ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
