The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The Alumasc Group plc stock £2.78, price £2.45, upside +13.5%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.09 – £3.82 · fair‑value band £1.77 – £3.97 · the £2.45 price screens below the £2.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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The Alumasc Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells building products and solutions in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, the Middle East, the Far East, and internationally. It operates through Water Management, Building Envelope, and Housebuilding Products segments.
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The company provides metals, such as aluminium, steel and iron, polymers, including polypropylene and PVC, and roofing membranes and insulation.
It also offers bituminous membranes, hot melt waterproofing, cold applied liquid coatings, single-ply membranes, metal roofing products, stormwater management, green roof solutions, solar PV systems, and roofing accessories under Ruroroof Derbigum, Hydrotech, Caltech, Aluply, Airtile, Metshield, Bluroof, Blackdown, Bio-Solacell, Solacell, Roof-Pro, and Surefoot brands.
In addition, it provides water management solutions under the Alumasc, Rainwater, Harmer, Wade, Gatic, and Skyline brands; and housebuilding products under the timloc brand name. The Alumasc Group plc was founded in 1928 and is based in Kettering, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) currently trades at £2.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.78, implying the stock looks roughly 11.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of £3.50 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the £2.45 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £0.4800, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.77 (bear) to £3.97 (bull), the price of £2.45 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
The Alumasc Group plc reported revenue of £107M in FY2026 versus £89.4M in FY2022, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was £7.3M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap £88.5M Micro · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) £0.2025 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 6.8% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 13%, ALU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£1.77Fair Value £2.78Bull£3.97
Price £2.45 · Upside +13.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0305 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.3% vs 3.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 66 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+13.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)11.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Alumasc Group plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALU.LSE
Frequently asked questions
Is The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.78 versus a price of £2.45, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALU?
Our model-based fair value for The Alumasc Group plc is £2.78 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.45.
What is the quality score of ALU?
The Alumasc Group plc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.78 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.77, optimistic scenario £3.97. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Alumasc Group plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.78, about +13% upside versus a price of £2.45 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.77, optimistic scenario £3.97. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The Alumasc Group plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £107M (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does The Alumasc Group plc pay a dividend?
The Alumasc Group plc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Alumasc Group plc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.6 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALU use?
Our models discount The Alumasc Group plc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Alumasc Group plc that is +14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Alumasc Group plc grew +6.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Alumasc Group plc (+14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.71 %: that much free cash flow The Alumasc Group plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Alumasc Group plc it is £2.78 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of £2.45. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Alumasc Group plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, ALU trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.45, fair value £2.78, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.78). For The Alumasc Group plc the two are £0.3300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Alumasc Group plc worth?
The market values The Alumasc Group plc at about £88.5M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is £2.45; our models calculate a fair value of £2.78 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALU?
Our models span a range for The Alumasc Group plc: cautious scenario £1.77, base £2.78, optimistic £3.97 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price £2.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALU?
The Alumasc Group plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.78 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Alumasc Group plc (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALU from its 52-week high?
The Alumasc Group plc trades at £2.45, about 14% below its 52-week high of £2.87 and 17% above the low of £2.10 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.78 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Alumasc Group plc?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, Grandblue Environment Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Alumasc Group plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price £2.45, calculated fair value £2.78 (+13%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALU calculated?
We run The Alumasc Group plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.78, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. The Alumasc Group plc currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was £2.45. Our model-based fair value is £2.78, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Alumasc Group plc right now?
A fairly wide model range (£1.77 to £3.97) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) come from?
Earnings per share at The Alumasc Group plc grew +5.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.2 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The Alumasc Group plc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The market capitalisation of The Alumasc Group plc is £88.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Alumasc Group plc is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
Earnings per share at The Alumasc Group plc are £0.2025 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The dividend yield of The Alumasc Group plc is 4.5% (payout 54.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The net margin of The Alumasc Group plc is 6.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Alumasc Group plc is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Alumasc Group plc is 15.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
The operating margin of The Alumasc Group plc is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
Revenue at The Alumasc Group plc is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Alumasc Group plc (ALU)?
Earnings per share at The Alumasc Group plc are growing −2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Alumasc Group plc (ALU) carry?
The net debt of The Alumasc Group plc is £14.4M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026