Allwyn AG (ALWN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Discretionary · GR · Market cap €11.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €12.13 to €11.72 (−3.4%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +3.5% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€8.34 to €15.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from €8.34 (bear) to €15.16 (bull), base €11.72. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 77/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.83 – €19.02 · fair‑value band €8.34 – €15.16 · the €13.68 price screens above the €11.72 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Allwyn AG (ALWN) currently trades at €13.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.72, implying the stock looks roughly 14.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Allwyn AG generated revenue of €9.1B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 94.8%. Net debt stands at €172M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €8.34 (bear case) to €15.16 (bull case); at €13.68, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 5 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -14%, ALWN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€12.83) versus Asset-Based (€0.3600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allwyn AG reported revenue of €1.6B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €483M in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2022.
ALWN screens 14% overvalued. Compare with BYLOT →
Peer Group
Consumer Discretionary · 3605 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Casinos & Gaming” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
5 more Casinos & Gaming stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYLOT BYLOT | €1.17 | €0.3900 | -67% |
| BBBY BBBY | $4.23 | $0.5600 | -87% |
| MGI MGI | 5.35 THB | 15.02 THB | +181% |
| AAAK AAAK | €5.75 | €0.8200 | -86% |
| Iljeong Industrial Co 008500 | 624.00 KRW | 591.87 KRW | -5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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