Allwyn AG (ALWN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Allwyn AG €12.25, price €11.08, upside +10.6%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.83 – €19.02 · fair‑value band €8.82 – €15.74 · the €11.08 price screens below the €12.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Allwyn AG (ALWN) currently trades at €11.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.25, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €13.60 per share, and 13 of the 25 models we run sit above the €11.08 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €2.07, and 12 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €8.82 (bear) to €15.74 (bull), the price of €11.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Allwyn AG reported revenue of €1.6B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €483M in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €9.1B · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 3.39 · EPS (TTM) €0.9600 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 29.4% · Return on equity 14.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 29.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at 11%, ALWN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €8.82Fair Value €12.25Bull €15.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.7233 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 42%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.3% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (3 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Casinos & Gaming” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Consumer Discretionary · 3607 stocks
Beats the sector median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)6.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth307.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Discretionary median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allwyn AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALWN
Frequently asked questions
Is Allwyn AG (ALWN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.25 versus a price of €11.08, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALWN?
Our model-based fair value for Allwyn AG is €12.25 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.08.
What is the quality score of ALWN?
Allwyn AG has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.25 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.82, optimistic scenario €15.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Allwyn AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.25, about +11% upside versus a price of €11.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €8.82, optimistic scenario €15.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Allwyn AG pay a dividend?
Allwyn AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Allwyn AG would have to grow free cash flow by -10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +4.0 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALWN use?
Our models discount Allwyn AG at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Greece. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Allwyn AG that is -10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Allwyn AG (ALWN) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Allwyn AG grew +4.0 % a year. The price currently implies -10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
What is the free cash flow yield of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.86 %: that much free cash flow Allwyn AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Allwyn AG it is €12.25 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €11.08. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Allwyn AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ALWN trades below its calculated fair value: price €11.08, fair value €12.25, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALWN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.25). For Allwyn AG the two are €1.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Allwyn AG worth?
The market values Allwyn AG at about €9.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €11.08; our models calculate a fair value of €12.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALWN?
Our models span a range for Allwyn AG: cautious scenario €8.82, base €12.25, optimistic €15.74 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €11.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALWN?
Allwyn AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ALWN?
The PEG ratio of Allwyn AG is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Allwyn AG (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 14.0%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALWN from its 52-week high?
Allwyn AG trades at €11.08, about 41% below its 52-week high of €18.64 and at the low of €11.08 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Allwyn AG?
From the same area (Consumer Discretionary) we also value BYLOT, RAJPALAYAM, VIRAT, IST Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Allwyn AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €11.08, calculated fair value €12.25 (+11%), Quality Score 76/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALWN calculated?
We run Allwyn AG through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Allwyn AG currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €11.08. Our model-based fair value is €12.25, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Allwyn AG right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Allwyn AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The market capitalisation of Allwyn AG is €9.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Allwyn AG is 3.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
Earnings per share at Allwyn AG are €0.9600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The dividend yield of Allwyn AG is 5.1% (payout 59.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The net margin of Allwyn AG is 29.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Allwyn AG is 14.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Allwyn AG is 29.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
The operating margin of Allwyn AG is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
Revenue at Allwyn AG is growing +308% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Allwyn AG (ALWN)?
Earnings per share at Allwyn AG are growing −18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Allwyn AG (ALWN) carry?
The net debt of Allwyn AG is €172M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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