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Ambarella Inc (AMBA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ambarella Inc $23.61, price $67.62, upside -65.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN KYG037AX1015

AI Ambarella Inc logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Ambarella Inc

AMBA · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $23.61 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -17.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Insider activity 46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$216.84 $39.79 Fair Value $23.61 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $39.79 – $216.84 · fair‑value band $17.39 – $30.30 · the $67.62 price screens above the $23.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation.

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Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation. The company's system-on-a-chip (SOC) integrates third generation CVflow technology with advanced video processing, image signal processing, audio processing, and system control functions on a single chip. It also offers central domain controllers, CVflow SoCs, AI neural processors, vision processor SoCs, high-definition radars, and serializer/deserializers, as well as licenses software modules. The company's solutions are used in automotive video recorders, electronic mirrors, front advanced driver assistance system camera, AI Telematics Systems, and cabin monitoring system and driver monitoring system cameras in automotive field; central domain controllers for autonomous vehicles in autonomy; enterprise and public class, and home security cameras in the field of IoT; and enterprise, home, public spaces, and consumer applications, as well as for video conferencing, access control, healthcare, medical, and virtual reality applications. It sells its solutions to original design manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, automotive market, and Tier-1 suppliers through its direct sales force and distributors. The company operates in Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, Europe, the United States, and rest of North America. Ambarella, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Stock analysis

Ambarella Inc (AMBA) currently trades at $67.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.61, implying the stock looks roughly 186.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $26.47 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $67.62 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.08, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $17.39 (bear) to $30.30 (bull), the price of $67.62 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ambarella Inc reported revenue of $391M in FY2026 versus $332M in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$75.9M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $3.4B · P/S ratio 8.37 · EPS (TTM) $−1.58 · Net margin −19.4% · Return on equity −11.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −13.4% · Operating margin −19.4% · Revenue (TTM) $405M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −65%, AMBA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $17.39 Fair Value $23.61 Bull $30.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $22.72 $32.74 $47.60 80
Growth DCF $22.93 $31.67 $43.79 79
5Y Revenue Exit $18.31 $25.68 $34.97 73
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $22.72 $32.74 $47.60 80
5Y Revenue Exit $18.31 $25.68 $34.97 73
10Y Revenue Exit $19.42 $26.47 $35.80 67
Multiples
EV/Revenue $16.39 $21.54 $26.70 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.78 $9.08 $13.56 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $22.93 $31.67 $43.79 79
Rev-Margin DCF $18.31 $25.80 $34.56 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 86
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 90
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 46
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+37.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−27.4% (2021) → −21.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +28.4% a year for the price and +9.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+13.0%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+14.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+12.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+11.2%
Projected 2031 (sales)+9.6%

AMBA screens 186% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 217 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −65% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −17% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −19% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/B 5.70× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 8.37× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 58.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 4.97× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)85 · sector 66
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 15

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 ¥349.35 ¥117.08 −66%
Piotech Inc 688072 ¥730.30 ¥322.24 −56%
SJ Semiconductor Corporation 688820 ¥133.57 ¥13.84 −90%
Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 5,670 TWD 4,864 TWD −14%
Qnity Electronics, Inc Q $124.86 $70.44 −44%

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Ambarella Inc · Fair Value
$23.61 −186%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambarella Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMBA

Frequently asked questions

Is Ambarella Inc (AMBA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.61 versus a price of $67.62, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMBA?
Our model-based fair value for Ambarella Inc is $23.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $67.62.
What is the quality score of AMBA?
Ambarella Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.39, optimistic scenario $30.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambarella Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.61, about −65% upside versus a price of $67.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $17.39, optimistic scenario $30.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
Ambarella Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $405M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambarella Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +31.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMBA use?
Our models discount Ambarella Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambarella Inc that is +31.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambarella Inc (AMBA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambarella Inc grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies +31.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambarella Inc (AMBA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambarella Inc (+31.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Ambarella Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambarella Inc it is $23.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $67.62. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambarella Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AMBA trades above its calculated fair value: price $67.62, fair value $23.61, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMBA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($67.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.61). For Ambarella Inc the two are $44.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambarella Inc worth?
The market values Ambarella Inc at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $67.62; our models calculate a fair value of $23.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMBA?
Our models span a range for Ambarella Inc: cautious scenario $17.39, base $23.61, optimistic $30.30 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $67.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AMBA?
The PEG ratio of Ambarella Inc is 4.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambarella Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −11.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMBA from its 52-week high?
Ambarella Inc trades at $67.62, about 29% below its 52-week high of $95.51 and 39% above the low of $48.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambarella Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value ASML Holding, Applied Materials, Inc, Lam Research Corporation, KLA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambarella Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $67.62, calculated fair value $23.61 (−65%), Quality Score 62/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMBA calculated?
We run Ambarella Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambarella Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $67.62. Our model-based fair value is $23.61, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambarella Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($30.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Ambarella Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The market capitalisation of Ambarella Inc is $3.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambarella Inc is 8.37 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
Earnings per share at Ambarella Inc are $−1.58. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The net margin of Ambarella Inc is −19.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambarella Inc is −11.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambarella Inc is −13.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
The operating margin of Ambarella Inc is −19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambarella Inc (AMBA)?
Revenue at Ambarella Inc is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Ambarella Inc (AMBA) hold?
Ambarella Inc holds more cash than debt, $178M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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