Ambarella, Inc (AMBA) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $3.4B
Ambarella, Inc
AMBA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from $40.68 to $21.24 (−47.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +16.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $39.79 – $216.84 · fair‑value band $16.08 – $26.39 · the $86.78 price screens above the $21.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Ambarella, Inc (AMBA) currently trades at $86.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.24, implying the stock looks roughly 75.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ambarella, Inc generated revenue of $405M at a net margin of -17.2%. Revenue grew 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $178M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.08 (bear case) to $26.39 (bull case); at $86.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -75% fair-value upside, at -76%, AMBA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($24.14) versus Asset-Based ($9.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation.
Full company description
Ambarella, Inc. develops low-power system-on-a-chip, semiconductors, and software for edge and physical artificial intelligence, applications, and intelligent automation. The company's system-on-a-chip (SOC) integrates third generation CVflow technology with advanced video processing, image signal processing, audio processing, and system control functions on a single chip. It also offers central domain controllers, CVflow SoCs, AI neural processors, vision processor SoCs, high-definition radars, and serializer/deserializers, as well as licenses software modules. The company's solutions are used in automotive video recorders, electronic mirrors, front advanced driver assistance system camera, AI Telematics Systems, and cabin monitoring system and driver monitoring system cameras in automotive field; central domain controllers for autonomous vehicles in autonomy; enterprise and public class, and home security cameras in the field of IoT; and enterprise, home, public spaces, and consumer applications, as well as for video conferencing, access control, healthcare, medical, and virtual reality applications. It sells its solutions to original design manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, automotive market, and Tier-1 suppliers through its direct sales force and distributors. The company operates in Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, Europe, the United States, and rest of North America. Ambarella, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ambarella, Inc reported revenue of $391M in FY2026 versus $332M in FY2022, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$75.9M in FY2026.
AMBA screens 76% overvalued. Compare with ASML Holding →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Strength Seen in Ambarella (AMBA): Can Its 16.1% Jump Turn into More Strength?
- Key deals this week: Ambarella, MarketAxess, argenx SE, TransDigm, and more
- Is Ambarella (AMBA) Cheap After Rumored NXP Takeover Talks?
- Ambarella stock surges on reported NXP takeover talks
Peer Group
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · 211 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductor Equipment & Materials median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductor Equipment & Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML Holding ASML | C$50.50 | C$15.57 | -69% |
| Applied Materials, Inc AMAT | $579.43 | $143.08 | -75% |
| Lam Research Corporation LRCX | $346.10 | $67.57 | -80% |
| KLA Corporation KLAC | $212.75 | $53.01 | -75% |
| NAURA Technology Group 002371 | ¥774.20 | ¥151.43 | -80% |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc 688012 | ¥350.69 | ¥41.79 | -88% |
| Piotech Inc 688072 | ¥832.00 | ¥431.44 | -48% |
| Hon. Precision, Inc 7769 | 6,005 TWD | 1,804 TWD | -70% |
| Hangzhou Changchuan Technology Co 300604 | ¥325.24 | ¥33.33 | -90% |
| MPI Corporation 6223 | 5,600 TWD | 609.44 TWD | -89% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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