Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 375M GBX
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£0.3400). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (£0.0850 to £0.3400). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.3499 – £22.57 · fair‑value band £0.0850 – £0.3400 · the £0.3610 price screens above the £0.0850 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML) currently trades at £0.3610, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.0850, implying the stock looks roughly 76.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings generated revenue of £1.3B at a net margin of -36.8%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -91.1%. Net debt stands at £1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £0.0850 (bear case) to £0.3400 (bull case); at £0.3610, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -76%, AML screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (£0.2100) versus Multiples (£0.2000). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 15 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 6
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of sports cars and sports utility vehicles(SUVs) in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Middle East, Africa, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of sports cars and sports utility vehicles(SUVs) in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Middle East, Africa, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company also engages in the sale of parts; sale of vehicles; servicing and restoration of vehicles; and brand licensing and motorsport activities. In addition, it provides engineering, and sales and marketing services. The company sells its vehicles through a network of dealers. Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Gaydon, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings reported revenue of £1.3B in FY2025 versus £1.1B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was −£493M in FY2025.
AML screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aston Martin confirms talks with financing providers over capital structure
- Aston Martin narrows losses despite rising debt in first quarter
- Aston Martin Lagonda Global Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- Aston Martin gets £50m funding injection to help enable smoother transformation
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $179.76 | $224.63 | +25% |
| BYD Company 81211 | HK$80.55 | HK$50.85 | -37% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 425,000 KRW | 616,918 KRW | +45% |
| General Motors Company GM | $77.72 | $56.93 | -27% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,944 MXN | +54% |
| Ferrari N.V RACE | $376.64 | $228.05 | -39% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.86 | C$4.00 | -66% |
| Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ | C$20.44 | C$35.15 | +72% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,191 CZK | +235% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,803 | ₹8,236 | -40% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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