Anaergia Inc (ANRGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Anaergia Inc $0.63, price $1.66, upside -62.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0110 – $20.11 · fair‑value band $0.4600 – $0.8400 · the $1.66 price screens above the $0.6300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Anaergia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides solutions for the generation of renewable energy and conversion of waste to resources in Italy, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Capital Sales; Operation & Maintenance Services; and Build, Own, and Operate.
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Anaergia Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides solutions for the generation of renewable energy and conversion of waste to resources in Italy, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Capital Sales; Operation & Maintenance Services; and Build, Own, and Operate. The company offers OREX, a waste processing solution that capture and process organic waste contained within mixed municipal solid wastes; Omnivore anaerobic digestion to produce valuable biogas and a nutrient rich soil amendment byproduct; membrane-based system to upgrade biogas and create pipeline; liquid treatment for water re-use and nutrient recovery; and residue treatment solutions. It provides wastewater resource recovery, municipal solid waste, and agricultural waste solutions. Anaergia Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Burlington, Canada.
Stock analysis
Anaergia Inc (ANRGF) currently trades at $1.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6300, 62.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.7800 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $1.66 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.3200, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $0.4600 (bear) to $0.8400 (bull), the price of $1.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Anaergia Inc reported revenue of C$180M in FY2025 versus C$154M in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$7.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $319M · P/E ratio 41.5 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Net margin 3.9% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.0% · Operating margin −2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −62%, ANRGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.4600Fair Value $0.6300Bull $0.8400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0302 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+61.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → −4%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.7%/yr over ~5Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+18.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.0% a year for the price and +16.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−91.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−1.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)3.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth122.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)41.5× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.52× · Pricier than median
P/FCF44.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA83.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 82
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 47
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Anaergia Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ANRGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Anaergia Inc (ANRGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6300 versus a price of $1.66, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ANRGF?
Our model-based fair value for Anaergia Inc is $0.6300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.66.
What is the quality score of ANRGF?
Anaergia Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.4600, optimistic scenario $0.8400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Anaergia Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6300, about −62% upside versus a price of $1.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.4600, optimistic scenario $0.8400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
Anaergia Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$211M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Anaergia Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +42.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ANRGF use?
Our models discount Anaergia Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.17, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Anaergia Inc that is +42.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Anaergia Inc (ANRGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Anaergia Inc grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies +42.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Anaergia Inc (+42.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.79 %: that much free cash flow Anaergia Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Anaergia Inc it is $0.6300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.66. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Anaergia Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ANRGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.66, fair value $0.6300, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ANRGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6300). For Anaergia Inc the two are $1.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Anaergia Inc worth?
The market values Anaergia Inc at about $319M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.66; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6300 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ANRGF?
Our models span a range for Anaergia Inc: cautious scenario $0.4600, base $0.6300, optimistic $0.8400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ANRGF?
Anaergia Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6300 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 83.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Anaergia Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ANRGF from its 52-week high?
Anaergia Inc trades at $1.66, about 34% below its 52-week high of $2.50 and 16% above the low of $1.43 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Anaergia Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Anaergia Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.66, calculated fair value $0.6300 (−62%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ANRGF calculated?
We run Anaergia Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Anaergia Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.66. Our model-based fair value is $0.6300, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Anaergia Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.4600 to $0.8400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Anaergia Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The market capitalisation of Anaergia Inc is $319M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Anaergia Inc is 1.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
Earnings per share at Anaergia Inc are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The net margin of Anaergia Inc is 3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Anaergia Inc is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Anaergia Inc is −11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
The operating margin of Anaergia Inc is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Anaergia Inc (ANRGF)?
Revenue at Anaergia Inc is growing +122% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Anaergia Inc (ANRGF) carry?
The net debt of Anaergia Inc is C$20.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026