Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc $34.72, price $41.90, upside -17.1%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.81 – $51.48 · fair‑value band $20.21 – $76.64 · the $41.90 price screens above the $34.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
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GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.
Stock analysis
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) currently trades at $41.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.72, implying the stock looks roughly 20.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $268.37 per share, and 13 of the 22 models we run sit above the $41.90 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.01, and 9 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $20.21 (bear) to $76.64 (bull), the price of $41.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc reported revenue of C$6.6B in FY2025 versus C$5.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.8B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $15.9B · P/E ratio 97.5 · P/S ratio 56.5 · EPS (TTM) $0.3600 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 58.0% · Return on equity 3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −17%, GFL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.21Fair Value $34.72Bull $76.64
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2019 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.6% (2020) → 6.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.5% a year for the price and +5.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 168 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−18% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)97.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.72 versus a price of $41.90, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GFL?
Our model-based fair value for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is $34.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.90.
What is the quality score of GFL?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.21, optimistic scenario $76.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.72, about −17% upside versus a price of $41.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.21, optimistic scenario $76.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +41.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GFL use?
Our models discount Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc that is +41.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies +41.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (+41.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.10 %: that much free cash flow Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc it is $34.72 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $41.90. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GFL trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.90, fair value $34.72, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GFL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.72). For Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc the two are $7.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc at about $15.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $41.90; our models calculate a fair value of $34.72 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GFL?
Our models span a range for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $20.21, base $34.72, optimistic $76.64 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $41.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GFL?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 97.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.72 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 14.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.0%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GFL from its 52-week high?
Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc trades at $41.90, about 11% below its 52-week high of $47.31 and 25% above the low of $33.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.72 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $41.90, calculated fair value $34.72 (−17%), Quality Score 53/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GFL calculated?
We run Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.72, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $41.90. Our model-based fair value is $34.72, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($20.21 to $76.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The market capitalisation of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is $15.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 56.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Earnings per share at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc are $0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 97.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The dividend yield of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 0.2% (payout 23.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The net margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 58.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
The operating margin of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Revenue at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL)?
Earnings per share at Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc are growing +22.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc (GFL) carry?
The net debt of Gfl Environmental Holdings Inc is $7.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 44.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026