GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $12.7B
GFL Environmental Inc
GFL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $129.83 to $115.05 (−11.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 178% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($43.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($43.93 to $115.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.81 – $51.48 · fair‑value band $43.93 – $115.05 · the $41.32 price screens below the $115.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) currently trades at $41.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $115.05, implying the stock looks roughly 178.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, GFL Environmental Inc generated revenue of $6.7B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.0%. Net debt stands at $7.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $43.93 (bear case) to $115.05 (bull case); at $41.32, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -41% fair-value upside, at 178%, GFL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit ($268.37) versus Dividend Discount ($1.43). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
Full company description
GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
GFL Environmental Inc reported revenue of $6.6B in FY2025 versus $5.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025.
Watch GFL: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- GFL Environmental Inc (GFL) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Raises Guidance Again, Confirms ...
- GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates
- GFL Environmental gains on report of interest from at least six PE groups (update)
- GFL Environmental Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Raises Full Year 2026 Guidance
Peer Group
Waste Management · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $233.33 | $128.02 | -45% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $219.20 | $122.01 | -44% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$242.43 | C$78.67 | -68% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €37.51 | €24.50 | -35% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $303.64 | $155.37 | -49% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €12.20 | €7.30 | -40% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.32 | ¥5.27 | -17% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥16.18 | ¥20.91 | +29% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.34 | A$1.18 | -50% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥15.90 | ¥9.35 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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