Waste Connections, Inc (WCN) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $43.1B
Waste Connections, Inc
WCN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $89.31 to $78.46 (−12.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($119.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($43.14 to $119.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $111.49 – $198.02 · fair‑value band $43.14 – $119.49 · the $167.39 price screens above the $78.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Waste Connections, Inc (WCN) currently trades at $167.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $78.46, implying the stock looks roughly 53.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Waste Connections, Inc generated revenue of $9.6B at a net margin of 11.0%. Revenue grew 6.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.1%. Net debt stands at $9.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $43.14 (bear case) to $119.49 (bull case); at $167.39, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -53%, WCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($100.98) versus Asset-Based ($21.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company owns and operates transfer stations that receive, compact, and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; develops, owns, and operates projects or the beneficial reuse of landfill gas through landfill network; and intermodal services for the movement of cargo and solid waste containers. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste created through the initial drilling and completion of an oil or natural gas well, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Waste Connections, Inc reported revenue of $9.5B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +15.0%/yr from FY2021.
WCN screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Peer Group
Waste Management · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $233.33 | $128.02 | -45% |
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $219.20 | $122.01 | -44% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €37.51 | €24.50 | -35% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $303.64 | $155.37 | -49% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$55.40 | C$94.12 | +70% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €12.20 | €7.30 | -40% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.32 | ¥5.27 | -17% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥16.18 | ¥20.91 | +29% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.34 | A$1.18 | -50% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥15.90 | ¥9.35 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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