Republic Services, Inc (RSG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $67.3B
Republic Services, Inc
RSG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −5.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 42% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($182.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($57.68 to $182.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $99.63 – $254.52 · fair‑value band $57.68 – $182.50 · the $209.59 price screens above the $122.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
Republic Services, Inc (RSG) currently trades at $209.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $122.01, implying the stock looks roughly 41.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Republic Services, Inc generated revenue of $16.7B at a net margin of 13.0%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.4%. Net debt stands at $520M. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.68 (bear case) to $182.50 (bull case); at $209.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -42%, RSG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($126.37) versus Asset-Based ($26.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions.
Full company description
Republic Services, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, offers environmental services in the United States and Canada. It is involved in the collection and processing of recyclable, solid waste, and industrial waste materials; transportation and disposal of non-hazardous and hazardous waste streams; and other environmental solutions. Its residential collection services include curbside collection of material for transport to transfer stations, landfills, recycling centers, and organics processing facilities; supply of recycling and waste containers; and renting of compactors. The company also engages in the processing and sale of old corrugated containers, old newsprint, aluminum, glass, and other materials; and provision of landfill services. It serves small-container, large-container, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is based in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Republic Services, Inc reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $11.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +13.5%/yr from FY2021.
RSG screens 42% overvalued. Compare with Waste Management, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Unlocking Q2 Potential of Republic Services (RSG): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
- Republic Services Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in Store?
- Republic Services (RSG) Sustainability Push Keeps Fair Value In Focus Ahead Of Earnings
- Republic Services (RSG) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?
Peer Group
Waste Management · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waste Management, Inc WM | $233.33 | $128.02 | -45% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$242.43 | C$78.67 | -68% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €37.51 | €24.50 | -35% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $303.64 | $155.37 | -49% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$55.40 | C$94.12 | +70% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €12.20 | €7.30 | -40% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.32 | ¥5.27 | -17% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥16.18 | ¥20.91 | +29% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.34 | A$1.18 | -50% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥15.90 | ¥9.35 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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