Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Casella Waste Systems Inc stock $14.30, price $88.53, upside -83.8%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.83 – $120.37 · fair‑value band $10.43 – $14.58 · the $88.53 price screens above the $14.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the United States.
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The company offers resource management expertise and services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers.
It also provides non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, recycling, and disposal operations. In addition, the company markets various materials, including fibers, such as corrugated cardboard and newsprint, plastics, glass, ferrous, and aluminum metals.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.
Stock analysis
Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) currently trades at $88.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.30, 83.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $15.30 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $88.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.69, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.43 (bear) to $14.58 (bull), the price of $88.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Casella Waste Systems Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $889M in FY2021, a compound +19.9%/yr. Reported net income was $7.9M in FY2025, compounding −33.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.6B Mid · P/S ratio 2.94 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity 0.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 5.0% · Revenue (TTM) $2.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −84%, CWST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.7000 to $70.99). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$10.43Fair Value $14.30Bull$14.58
Price $88.53 · Upside -83.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0745 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.9% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.2% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Limited public signals indicate average moat potential, yet low profitability metrics remain the main weakness for the waste management business.
Main risk: Earlier closure after reassessing remaining airspace risks tighter landfill capacity constraints that would raise costs and limit service reach.
Casella is moving up the closure of its NCES landfill in New Hampshire to December 31 this year after reassessing remaining airspace and fill rates. The change will lift fourth-quarter amortization expense yet leave full-year results largely unaffected. In a business where landfill capacity shapes both costs and service reach, does this reflect disciplined airspace management or point to tighter constraints ahead in key regions?
Compare Casella Waste Systems Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−83.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)0.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.88× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow66.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Pricier than median
PEG3.29× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)85· sector 38
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Casella Waste Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWST
Frequently asked questions
Is Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.30 versus a price of $88.53, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWST?
Our model-based fair value for Casella Waste Systems Inc is $14.30 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $88.53.
What is the quality score of CWST?
Casella Waste Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.30 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.43, optimistic scenario $14.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Casella Waste Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.30, about −84% upside versus a price of $88.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.43, optimistic scenario $14.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Casella Waste Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Casella Waste Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +34.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.9 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CWST use?
Our models discount Casella Waste Systems Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Casella Waste Systems Inc that is +34.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Casella Waste Systems Inc grew +18.9 % a year. The price currently implies +34.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Casella Waste Systems Inc (+34.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.50 %: that much free cash flow Casella Waste Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Casella Waste Systems Inc it is $14.30 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of $88.53. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Casella Waste Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, CWST trades above its calculated fair value: price $88.53, fair value $14.30, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($88.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.30). For Casella Waste Systems Inc the two are $74.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Casella Waste Systems Inc worth?
The market values Casella Waste Systems Inc at about $5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is $88.53; our models calculate a fair value of $14.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWST?
Our models span a range for Casella Waste Systems Inc: cautious scenario $10.43, base $14.30, optimistic $14.58 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price $88.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CWST?
The PEG ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 3.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Casella Waste Systems Inc (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 0.4%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWST from its 52-week high?
Casella Waste Systems Inc trades at $88.53, about 18% below its 52-week high of $107.34 and 18% above the low of $74.97 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Casella Waste Systems Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Casella Waste Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price $88.53, calculated fair value $14.30 (−84%), Quality Score 38/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWST calculated?
We run Casella Waste Systems Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Casella Waste Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $88.53. Our model-based fair value is $14.30, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Casella Waste Systems Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Casella Waste Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The market capitalisation of Casella Waste Systems Inc is $5.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 2.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Earnings per share at Casella Waste Systems Inc are $0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The net margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 0.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 0.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The operating margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Revenue at Casella Waste Systems Inc is growing +16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Earnings per share at Casella Waste Systems Inc are growing −25.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) carry?
The net debt of Casella Waste Systems Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 29, 2026