Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Casella Waste Systems Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $11.36 · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 29/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +18.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(1/14)
!Narrow moat28/100
!Insider activity40/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.79 – $120.37 · fair‑value band $2.27 – $11.36 · the $89.91 price screens above the $11.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the United States.
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Casella Waste Systems, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated solid waste services company in the United States. The company offers resource management expertise and services primarily in the areas of solid waste collection and disposal, transfer, recycling and organics services to residential, commercial, municipal, institutional, and industrial customers. It also provides non-hazardous solid waste services, including collections, transfer stations, recycling, and disposal operations. In addition, the company markets various materials, including fibers, such as corrugated cardboard and newsprint, plastics, glass, ferrous, and aluminum metals. Casella Waste Systems, Inc. was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Rutland, Vermont.
Stock analysis
Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) currently trades at $89.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.36, implying the stock looks roughly 691.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $16.78 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $89.91 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.24, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.27 (bear) to $11.36 (bull), the price of $89.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Casella Waste Systems Inc reported revenue of $1.8B in FY2025 versus $889M in FY2021, a compound +19.9%/yr. Reported net income was $7.9M in FY2025, compounding −33.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.7B · P/E ratio 804.7 · P/S ratio 3.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.1100 · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 0.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −87%, CWST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.24 to $69.22). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $2.27Fair Value $11.36Bull $11.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0775 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−8.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Casella Waste Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−97% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.72× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)804.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.91× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.27× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF72.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA17.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG3.29× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)48· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)2· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)64· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Casella Waste Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CWST
Frequently asked questions
Is Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.36 versus a price of $89.91, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CWST?
Our model-based fair value for Casella Waste Systems Inc is $11.36 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $89.91.
What is the quality score of CWST?
Casella Waste Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.36 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.27, optimistic scenario $11.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Casella Waste Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.36, about −87% upside versus a price of $89.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.27, optimistic scenario $11.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Casella Waste Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Casella Waste Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +34.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CWST use?
Our models discount Casella Waste Systems Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Casella Waste Systems Inc that is +34.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Casella Waste Systems Inc grew +18.9 % a year. The price currently implies +34.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Casella Waste Systems Inc (+34.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.48 %: that much free cash flow Casella Waste Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Casella Waste Systems Inc it is $11.36 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $89.91. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Casella Waste Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CWST trades above its calculated fair value: price $89.91, fair value $11.36, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CWST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($89.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.36). For Casella Waste Systems Inc the two are $78.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Casella Waste Systems Inc worth?
The market values Casella Waste Systems Inc at about $5.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $89.91; our models calculate a fair value of $11.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CWST?
Our models span a range for Casella Waste Systems Inc: cautious scenario $2.27, base $11.36, optimistic $11.36 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $89.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of CWST?
The PEG ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 3.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Casella Waste Systems Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 0.5%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CWST from its 52-week high?
Casella Waste Systems Inc trades at $89.91, about 24% below its 52-week high of $118.91 and 21% above the low of $74.05 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Casella Waste Systems Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Waste Management, Inc, Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Casella Waste Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $89.91, calculated fair value $11.36 (−87%), Quality Score 29/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CWST calculated?
We run Casella Waste Systems Inc through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Casella Waste Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Casella Waste Systems Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.27 to $11.36). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Casella Waste Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The market capitalisation of Casella Waste Systems Inc is $5.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 804.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 3.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Earnings per share at Casella Waste Systems Inc are $0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 804.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The net margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 0.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
The operating margin of Casella Waste Systems Inc is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Revenue at Casella Waste Systems Inc is growing +9.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST)?
Earnings per share at Casella Waste Systems Inc are growing +60.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Casella Waste Systems Inc (CWST) carry?
The net debt of Casella Waste Systems Inc is $1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026