Waste Management Inc (WM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Waste Management Inc stock $262, price $238, upside +10.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $130.40 – $243.40 · fair‑value band $140.75 – $341.13 · the $238.49 price screens below the $262.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally.
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It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas.
It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions.
In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash.
Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper.
The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Waste Management Inc (WM) currently trades at $238.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $262.34, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $139.86 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $238.49 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $60.37, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $140.75 (bear) to $341.13 (bull), the price of $238.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Waste Management Inc reported revenue of $25.2B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $96.2B Large · P/E ratio 31.3 · P/S ratio 3.69 · EPS (TTM) $7.62 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 11.8% · Return on equity 31.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 72 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 10%, WM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$140.75Fair Value $262.34Bull$341.13
Price $238.49 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $885,511 and none bought.
SaleJohn A. CarrollVP & Chief Accounting Officer5× since Jan 30, 2026: 2,690 shares, avg. $226.07$608,128Sep 4, 2026
SaleRafael CarrascoSVP of Enterprise Strategy4× since Nov 20, 2025: 12,077 shares, avg. $228.54$2.8MJun 5, 2026
SaleChristopher P. DeSantisSVP Operations - East2× since Jan 30, 2026: 276 shares, avg. $224.74$62,028Mar 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohnson VarkeySVP-Chief Information Officer3× since Jan 30, 2026: 1,166 shares, avg. $235.26$274,312Mar 9, 2026
SaleJohn J MorrisPresident & COO3× since Jan 30, 2026: 12,880 shares, avg. $243.15$3.1MMar 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDavid L. ReedEVP & CFO4× since Jan 30, 2026: 403 shares, avg. $225.84$91,015Mar 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleTara J. HemmerSVP & Chief Sustainability Off2× since Jan 30, 2026: 5,508 shares, avg. $239.06$1.3MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael J. WatsonSr. VP-Chief Customer Officer2× since Jan 30, 2026: 17,938 shares, avg. $240.97$4.3MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleKimberly G. StithSVP - Chief HR Officer2× since Jan 30, 2026: 178 shares, avg. $222.42$39,591Mar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDonald J SmithSr. VP - Operations2× since Jan 30, 2026: 12,884 shares, avg. $232.74$3.0MFeb 17, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 9.7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.7% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate advantages in organization capital and pricing power from industry structure form the main strength, while limited public signals on human capital innovation and alignment represent the key weakness.
Main risk: Stricter federal or state rules on methane emissions or RCRA violations could force costly upgrades, remediation or even closure of landfills, hitting disposal capacity and margins.
Bull case: WM could leverage its network density and pricing power plus ongoing automation to absorb regulatory costs while expanding RNG and recycling capacity for new revenue streams.
Bear case: Persistent regulatory challenges or debt-service pressures could erode margins, limit tuck-in acquisitions and force asset sales or reduced shareholder distributions over several years.
Waste Management's healthcare solutions segment posted its first year-over-year revenue increase since the acquisition, with operating EBITDA up 33 percent from pricing and integration savings. This offset modestly negative core waste volumes and fuel cost pressures, driving stronger free cash flow and reaffirmed full-year guidance at the high end. Will the leadership transition sustain the pricing discipline and diversification that have supported results, or will volume softness weigh more heavily?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Waste Management · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)31.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.22× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.3× · Pricier than median
P/B9.63× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Waste Management Inc (WM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $262.34 versus a price of $238.49, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of WM?
Our model-based fair value for Waste Management Inc is $262.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $238.49.
What is the quality score of WM?
Waste Management Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $262.34 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $140.75, optimistic scenario $341.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Waste Management Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $262.34, about +10% upside versus a price of $238.49 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $140.75, optimistic scenario $341.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Waste Management Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $26.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Waste Management Inc pay a dividend?
Waste Management Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.53% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Waste Management Inc (WM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Waste Management Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.6 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WM use?
Our models discount Waste Management Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Waste Management Inc that is +18.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Waste Management Inc (WM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Waste Management Inc grew +10.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Waste Management Inc (WM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Waste Management Inc (+18.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.93 %: that much free cash flow Waste Management Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Waste Management Inc it is $262.34 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $238.49. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Waste Management Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, WM trades below its calculated fair value: price $238.49, fair value $262.34, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($238.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($262.34). For Waste Management Inc the two are $23.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Waste Management Inc worth?
The market values Waste Management Inc at about $96.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $238.49; our models calculate a fair value of $262.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WM?
Our models span a range for Waste Management Inc: cautious scenario $140.75, base $262.34, optimistic $341.13 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $238.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WM?
Waste Management Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $262.34 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 31.8 (reported for FY2025: 35.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 28.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 9.6, P/S 3.7, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
What is the PEG ratio of WM?
The PEG ratio of Waste Management Inc is 2.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Waste Management Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 31.7%, debt of 2.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WM from its 52-week high?
Waste Management Inc trades at $238.49, about 2% below its 52-week high of $243.40 and 21% above the low of $196.34 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $262.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Waste Management Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Republic Services, Inc, Waste Connections, Inc, Veolia Environnement SA, Clean Harbors, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Waste Management Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $238.49, calculated fair value $262.34 (+10%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WM calculated?
We run Waste Management Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $262.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Waste Management Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $238.49. Our model-based fair value is $262.34, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Waste Management Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($140.75 to $341.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Waste Management Inc (WM) come from?
Earnings per share at Waste Management Inc grew +11.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Waste Management Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The market capitalisation of Waste Management Inc is $96.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Waste Management Inc is 3.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Earnings per share at Waste Management Inc are $7.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The dividend yield of Waste Management Inc is 1.5% (payout 42.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 48.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The net margin of Waste Management Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Waste Management Inc is 31.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Waste Management Inc is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Waste Management Inc (WM)?
The operating margin of Waste Management Inc is 19.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Revenue at Waste Management Inc is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Waste Management Inc (WM)?
Earnings per share at Waste Management Inc are growing +37.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Waste Management Inc (WM) carry?
The net debt of Waste Management Inc is $22.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026