Waste Management, Inc (WM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $93.7B
Waste Management, Inc
WM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −3.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 44% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($177.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($51.16 to $177.02). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $126.76 – $244.47 · fair‑value band $51.16 – $177.02 · the $229.01 price screens above the $128.02 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Waste Management, Inc (WM) currently trades at $229.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.02, implying the stock looks roughly 44.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Waste Management, Inc generated revenue of $25.4B at a net margin of 11.0%. Revenue grew 3.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.9%. Net debt stands at $22.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $51.16 (bear case) to $177.02 (bull case); at $229.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -44%, WM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($124.68) versus Asset-Based ($16.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Waste Management, Inc reported revenue of $25.2B in FY2025 versus $17.9B in FY2021, a compound +8.9%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.
WM screens 44% overvalued. Compare with Republic Services, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Reading Between The Lines Of WM's Latest Call
- Waste Management (WM) Could Be 15% Below Fair Value On Softer Volume Guidance
- WM Q2 Deep Dive: Improving Margins and Integration Progress Offset Softer Volume Trends
- WM Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Margin Gains, Volume and Cash Flow
Peer Group
Waste Management · 169 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Waste Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Waste Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republic Services, Inc RSG | $219.20 | $122.01 | -44% |
| Waste Connections, Inc WCN | C$242.43 | C$78.67 | -68% |
| Veolia Environnement SA VIE | €37.51 | €24.50 | -35% |
| Clean Harbors, Inc CLH | $303.64 | $155.37 | -49% |
| GFL Environmental Inc GFL | C$55.40 | C$94.12 | +70% |
| Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A FCC | €12.20 | €7.30 | -40% |
| GEM Co 002340 | ¥6.32 | ¥5.27 | -17% |
| Zhejiang Weiming Environment Protection Co 603568 | ¥16.18 | ¥20.91 | +29% |
| Cleanaway Waste Management Limited CWY | A$2.34 | A$1.18 | -50% |
| Beijing GeoEnviron Engineering & Technology, Inc 603588 | ¥15.90 | ¥9.35 | -41% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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