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Alstom SA (AOMFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alstom SA $16.52, price $17.00, upside -2.8%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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AS
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Alstom SA
AOMFF · USLow PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.
·Fair value $16.52 · Fairly valued (−2.8%)
!Quality 41/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +17.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 29/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.27 – $54.12 · fair‑value band $11.94 – $19.67 · the $17.00 price screens above the $16.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
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Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions comprising people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter and regional trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides APM, monorail, tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track, catenary free and ground feeding, electrification, cybersecurity, and engineering consultancy solutions, as well as electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company offers rail maintenance, modernization, overhaul, parts, repair and overhauls, and support services. Further, it provides various components, including bogies, motors, dampers, brake friction products, switchgears, traction and auxiliary converters, transformers, green traction solutions, interiors, and train control and information systems. The company offers its products and solutions to original equipment manufacturers, operators, and asset owners. Alstom SA was founded in 1928 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.
Stock analysis
Alstom SA (AOMFF) currently trades at $17.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.52, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.80 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the $17.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $13.60, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.94 (bear) to $19.67 (bull), the price of $17.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alstom SA reported revenue of €19.2B in FY2026 versus €15.5B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was €324M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $8.5B · P/E ratio 24.3 · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −3%, AOMFF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.94
Fair Value $16.52
Bull $19.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3567 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$11.10
$15.66
$22.01
81
Growth DCF
$11.33
$15.49
$20.99
79
Owner Earnings
$17.26
$24.55
$34.69
77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$11.10
$15.66
$22.01
81
Owner Earnings
$17.26
$24.55
$34.69
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$13.77
$21.46
$31.06
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$24.43
$40.67
$59.16
74
5Y P/E Exit
$11.47
$17.32
$23.20
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$12.21
$18.80
$27.21
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$19.19
$31.58
$47.46
67
10Y P/E Exit
$11.23
$16.05
$21.55
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.36
$13.65
$17.74
65
PEG = 1.0
$2.54
$3.63
$4.71
57
EPV
$11.85
$13.60
$15.11
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.8100
$1.51
$2.44
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.8100
$1.22
$1.64
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$12.42
$16.56
$20.70
63
P/S Multiple
$10.05
$13.40
$16.75
58
P/B Multiple
$10.05
$13.40
$16.75
55
EV/EBIT
$22.48
$29.71
$36.94
66
EV/EBITDA
$36.74
$48.72
$60.70
67
EV/Revenue
$16.27
$22.91
$29.54
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$12.11
$16.22
$24.21
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$11.33
$15.49
$20.99
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$13.77
$21.49
$29.87
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$17.42
$16.78
$16.90
76
ROIC Compounder
$11.85
$13.60
$15.11
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$9.62
$13.74
$17.87
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
41/100
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23
Profitability
22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
86
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
32
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.8% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.2% vs −18.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.9% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.1%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2031 (sales)+3.9%
Watch AOMFF, get fair value alerts →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- ALSTOM S.A: Alstom to support Riyadh's next chapter of mobility with additional driverless metro trains
- In Canada, Alstom opens new opportunities for Indigenous-owned businesses and launches dedicated supplier registration portal
- Alstom (ENXTPA:ALO) Lands New Rail Orders With Valuation Still In Focus
- ALSTOM S.A: Alstom signs launch order with Northrail for its new Traxx Shunter Platform
Compare Alstom SA with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $272.13 | $153.47 | −44% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.51 | $12.91 | −72% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $86.56 | $37.51 | −57% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $121.14 | $98.68 | −19% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $309.00 | $133.05 | −57% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $288.00 | $290.92 | +1% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.69 | ¥5.65 | +20% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.97 | ¥9.21 | +54% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.66 | ¥5.48 | +18% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.83 | €10.42 | −45% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Alstom SA (AOMFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.52 versus a price of $17.00, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AOMFF?
Our model-based fair value for Alstom SA is $16.52 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.00.
What is the quality score of AOMFF?
Alstom SA has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.52 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.94, optimistic scenario $19.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alstom SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.52, about −3% upside versus a price of $17.00 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $11.94, optimistic scenario $19.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Alstom SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Alstom SA pay a dividend?
Alstom SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.45% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alstom SA would have to grow free cash flow by +12.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AOMFF use?
Our models discount Alstom SA at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.06, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alstom SA that is +12.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alstom SA (AOMFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alstom SA grew +17.0 % a year. The price currently implies +12.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alstom SA (AOMFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alstom SA (+12.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.66 %: that much free cash flow Alstom SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alstom SA it is $16.52 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $17.00. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alstom SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AOMFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.00, fair value $16.52, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOMFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.52). For Alstom SA the two are $0.4800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alstom SA worth?
The market values Alstom SA at about $8.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $17.00; our models calculate a fair value of $16.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOMFF?
Our models span a range for Alstom SA: cautious scenario $11.94, base $16.52, optimistic $19.67 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $17.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AOMFF?
Alstom SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.1.
What is the PEG ratio of AOMFF?
The PEG ratio of Alstom SA is 0.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alstom SA (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOMFF from its 52-week high?
Alstom SA trades at $17.00, about 52% below its 52-week high of $35.21 and 2% above the low of $16.70 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alstom SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alstom SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $17.00, calculated fair value $16.52 (−3%), Quality Score 41/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOMFF calculated?
We run Alstom SA through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alstom SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $17.00. Our model-based fair value is $16.52, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alstom SA right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Alstom SA (AOMFF) come from?
Earnings per share at Alstom SA grew −24.1 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −5.7 %, tax rate −4.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −19.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alstom SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The market capitalisation of Alstom SA is $8.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alstom SA is 0.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Earnings per share at Alstom SA are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The dividend yield of Alstom SA is 0.4% (payout 10.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The net margin of Alstom SA is 1.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alstom SA is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alstom SA is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
The operating margin of Alstom SA is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Revenue at Alstom SA is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alstom SA (AOMFF)?
Earnings per share at Alstom SA are growing −29.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alstom SA (AOMFF) carry?
The net debt of Alstom SA is €2.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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