A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $8.3B
A. O. Smith Corporation
AOS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $81.17 to $65.65 (−19.1%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($43.55 to $93.99) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.06 – $88.44 · fair‑value band $43.55 – $93.99 · the $62.99 price screens below the $65.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) currently trades at $62.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.65, implying the stock looks roughly 4.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, A. O. Smith Corporation generated revenue of $3.8B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue declined 1.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.3%. Net debt stands at $17.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $43.55 (bear case) to $93.99 (bull case); at $62.99, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at 4%, AOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($68.07) versus Asset-Based ($8.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 79 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India.
Full company description
A. O. Smith Corporation manufactures and markets residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, heat pumps, tanks, and water treatment products in North America, China, Europe, and India. The company offers water heaters for residences, restaurants, hotels, office buildings, laundries, car washes, and small businesses; boilers for hospitals, schools, hotels, homes, apartments, and condominiums, and other large commercial buildings; and water treatment products comprising point-of-entry water softeners, well water solutions, and whole-home water filtration products, and point-of-use carbon and reverse osmosis products for residences, restaurants, hotels, and offices. It also provides commercial water treatment and filtration products; expansion tanks, commercial solar water heating systems, swimming pool and spa heaters, and related products and parts; and electric wall-hung, gas tankless, combi-boiler, and heat pump and solar water heaters. The company offers its products under the A. O. Smith, State, Lochinvar, Hague, Water-Right, Master Water, Atlantic Filter, Impact, and Water Tec brands. It distributes its products through independent wholesale plumbing distributors, as well as to retail channels consisting of hardware and home center chains, and manufacturer representative firms, as well as offers Aquasana branded products directly to consumers through e-commerce channels; and A. O. Smith branded water treatment products through dealer network and Amazon. A. O. Smith Corporation was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
A. O. Smith Corporation reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $546M in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Watch AOS: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- A. O. Smith Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- AOS Q2 Deep Dive: Margin Compression and China Weakness Offset North America Growth
- Is A. O. Smith (AOS) Undervalued On Strong Q2 Earnings And Higher Buybacks?
- A.O. Smith Corp's Dividend Analysis
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 807 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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