Precinct Properties NZ Ltd (AOTUF) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · US · Market cap $1.2B

A solid business, but screening 78% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.2600). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide ($0.0400 to $0.2600). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.5293 – $0.9291 · fair‑value band $0.0400 – $0.2600 · the $0.5800 price screens above the $0.1300 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

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Analysis

Precinct Properties NZ Ltd (AOTUF) currently trades at $0.5800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1300, implying the stock looks roughly 77.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Precinct Properties NZ Ltd generated revenue of $268M at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue declined 6.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.2%. Net debt stands at $1.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.0400 (bear case) to $0.2600 (bull case); at $0.5800, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -78%, AOTUF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($0.7400) versus Growth DCF ($0.0500). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Precinct Properties NZ Ltd & Precinct Properties Investments Ltd is the largest owner, manager and developer of premium city center real estate in Auckland and Wellington. Precinct is predominantly invested in office buildings and includes investment in Precinct Flex, Commercial Bay retail and a multi-unit residential development business.

Full company description

Precinct Properties NZ Ltd & Precinct Properties Investments Ltd is the largest owner, manager and developer of premium city center real estate in Auckland and Wellington. Precinct is predominantly invested in office buildings and includes investment in Precinct Flex, Commercial Bay retail and a multi-unit residential development business. As of 31 December 2025, Precinct's directly held portfolio (on completion value) totalled 3.3 billion US dollars, and Precinct had a further 1.9 billion US dollars of capital partnering assets under management: 1.4 billion US dollars of these were assets in which Precinct holds a minority interest; with the balance being managed on behalf of third party partners. Precinct Properties NZ Ltd & Precinct Properties Investments Ltd was incorporated in 1997.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Precinct Properties NZ Ltd reported revenue of $278M in FY2025 versus $200M in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $11.0M in FY2025, compounding −50.8%/yr from FY2021.

AOTUF screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.