Charter Hall Group (CHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Charter Hall Group A$3.25, price A$17.72, upside -81.7%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value A$3.25 · Strongly overvalued (−81.7%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −3.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.8% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!2.9% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Trails peers(4/14)
✓Wide moat75/100
!Insider activity35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$7.94 – A$25.33 · fair‑value band A$2.76 – A$5.57 · the A$17.72 price screens above the A$3.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Charter Hall Group is Australia's leading fully integrated diversified property investment and funds management group. We use our expertise to access, deploy, manage and invest equity to create value and generate superior returns for our investor customers.
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Charter Hall Group is Australia's leading fully integrated diversified property investment and funds management group. We use our expertise to access, deploy, manage and invest equity to create value and generate superior returns for our investor customers. We've curated a diverse portfolio of high-quality properties across our core sectors " Office, Industrial & Logistics, Retail and Social Infrastructure. With partnerships and financial discipline at the heart of our approach, we create and invest in places that support our customers, people and communities to grow. Charter Hall Group was incorporated in 1991 in Australia.
Stock analysis
Charter Hall Group (CHC) currently trades at A$17.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.25, implying the stock looks roughly 445.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$7.65 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$17.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.8200, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$2.76 (bear) to A$5.57 (bull), the price of A$17.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Charter Hall Group reported revenue of A$557M in FY2026 versus A$1.1B in FY2022, a compound −15.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$242M in FY2026, compounding −28.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$8.5B (≈ $6.0B) · P/E ratio 19.9 · P/S ratio 8.64 · EPS (TTM) A$0.8900 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 43.4% · Return on equity 15.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at −82%, CHC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$2.76Fair Value A$3.25Bull A$5.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0956 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.16/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−10.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.8% vs −0.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 47%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (71 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−81.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)29.8% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)59.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.22× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B10.30× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.39× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG3.77× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)61· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)39· sector 75
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 100
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Charter Hall Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHC
Frequently asked questions
Is Charter Hall Group (CHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.25 versus a price of A$17.72, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHC?
Our model-based fair value for Charter Hall Group is A$3.25 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$17.72.
What is the quality score of CHC?
Charter Hall Group has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.25 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.76, optimistic scenario A$5.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Charter Hall Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.25, about −82% upside versus a price of A$17.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.76, optimistic scenario A$5.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Charter Hall Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$811M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Charter Hall Group pay a dividend?
Charter Hall Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Charter Hall Group it is A$3.25 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$17.72. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Charter Hall Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CHC trades above its calculated fair value: price A$17.72, fair value A$3.25, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$17.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.25). For Charter Hall Group the two are A$14.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Charter Hall Group worth?
The market values Charter Hall Group at about A$8.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$17.72; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHC?
Our models span a range for Charter Hall Group: cautious scenario A$2.76, base A$3.25, optimistic A$5.57 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$17.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHC?
Charter Hall Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.8, P/B 10.3, P/S 7.4, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CHC?
The PEG ratio of Charter Hall Group is 3.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Charter Hall Group (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 15.3%, debt of 1.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHC from its 52-week high?
Charter Hall Group trades at A$17.72, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$25.33 and 1% above the low of A$17.63 (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Charter Hall Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, The GPT Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Charter Hall Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$17.72, calculated fair value A$3.25 (−82%), Quality Score 54/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHC calculated?
We run Charter Hall Group through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Charter Hall Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was A$17.72. Our model-based fair value is A$3.25, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Charter Hall Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$2.76 to A$5.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Charter Hall Group (CHC) come from?
Earnings per share at Charter Hall Group grew +2.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.9 %, EBIT margin −1.5 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Charter Hall Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The market capitalisation of Charter Hall Group is A$8.5B (≈ $6.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Charter Hall Group is 8.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Earnings per share at Charter Hall Group are A$0.8900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The dividend yield of Charter Hall Group is 2.9% (payout 56.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The net margin of Charter Hall Group is 43.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Charter Hall Group is 15.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Charter Hall Group is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
The operating margin of Charter Hall Group is 59.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Revenue at Charter Hall Group is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Charter Hall Group (CHC)?
Earnings per share at Charter Hall Group are growing −32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Charter Hall Group (CHC) generate?
The free cash flow of Charter Hall Group is −A$22.6M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Charter Hall Group (CHC) carry?
The net debt of Charter Hall Group is A$512M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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