Goodman Group (GMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$61.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from A$7.38 to A$7.37 (−0.1%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price −1.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$10.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$4.54 to A$10.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$15.12 – A$38.10 · fair‑value band A$4.54 – A$10.49 · the A$30.24 price screens above the A$7.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Goodman Group (GMG) currently trades at A$30.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.37, implying the stock looks roughly 75.6% overvalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Goodman Group generated revenue of A$3.1B at a net margin of 54.6%. Revenue declined 15.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at A$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$4.54 (bear case) to A$10.49 (bull case); at A$30.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -76%, GMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$15.54) versus Economic Profit (A$2.16). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy. Goodman has operations in key consumer markets across Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Americas.
Full company description
Goodman Group is a provider of essential infrastructure. It owns, develops and manages high quality, sustainable logistics properties and data centres in major global cities, that are critical to the digital economy. Goodman has operations in key consumer markets across Australia, New Zealand, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom, and the Americas. Goodman Group, comprised of the stapled entities Goodman Limited, Goodman Industrial Trust and Goodman Logistics (HK) Limited, is the largest property group on the Australian Securities Exchange, a top 20 entity by market capitalisation, and one of the largest listed specialist investment managers of industrial property globally The Group's property portfolio includes logistics and distribution centres, data centres, warehouses, light industrial, multi-storey industrial, and business parks. Goodman takes a long-term view, investing significantly alongside its capital Partners in its investment management platform and concentrating the portfolio where it can create the most value for customers and investors. Goodman Group was established on April 05, 2002 and incorporated in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Goodman Group reported revenue of A$2.2B in FY2025 versus A$1.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.7B in FY2025, compounding −7.9%/yr from FY2021.
GMG screens 76% overvalued. Compare with VICI Properties Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Goodman plans new data centre campus development in Sagamihara City, Greater Tokyo
- Assessing Goodman Group’s Valuation After Its Strong Recent Share Price Momentum
- Goodman Group Announces Results of Cash Tender Offer for its 3.700% Guaranteed Senior Notes due 2028
- Goodman Group Announces Pricing of Cash Tender Offer for its 3.700% Guaranteed Senior Notes due 2028
Peer Group
REIT - Diversified · 163 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $26.73 | $41.74 | +56% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $76.69 | $35.59 | -54% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$21.90 | A$11.46 | -48% |
| Fibra Uno FUNO11 | 31.10 MXN | 63.56 MXN | +104% |
| COV COV | €52.55 | €62.39 | +19% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.89 | A$3.49 | -29% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.70 | A$0.5700 | -66% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.85 MYR | 6.91 MYR | -22% |
| CRRUN CRRUN | C$17.65 | C$17.89 | +1% |
| Fibra Danhos DANHOS13 | 28.26 MXN | 49.89 MXN | +77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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