Mirvac Group (MGR) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$6.7B

A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.9900). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The model range is unusually wide (A$0.2200 to A$0.9900). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.54 – A$2.50 · fair‑value band A$0.2200 – A$0.9900 · the A$1.81 price screens above the A$0.5700 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Mirvac Group (MGR) currently trades at A$1.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.5700, implying the stock looks roughly 68.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Mirvac Group generated revenue of A$2.9B at a net margin of 13.2%. Revenue grew 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at A$4.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from A$0.2200 (bear case) to A$0.9900 (bull case); at A$1.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at -69%, MGR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$1.54) versus Growth DCF (A$0.2100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Mirvac Group is an Australian Securities Exchange listed company, with an integrated asset creation and curation capability. They own and manage assets across office, retail, industrial and the living sectors in their investment portfolio, with approximately 22 billion dollars of assets under management.

Full company description

Mirvac Group is an Australian Securities Exchange listed company, with an integrated asset creation and curation capability. They own and manage assets across office, retail, industrial and the living sectors in their investment portfolio, with approximately 22 billion dollars of assets under management. Its development activities span commercial and mixed-use and residential, with a development pipeline of approximately 29 billion dollars. The firm focus on delivering high-quality, innovative and sustainable real estate for our customers, while driving long-term value for their securityholders. Mirvac Group was founded in 1972 and incorporated in Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Mirvac Group reported revenue of A$2.4B in FY2025 versus A$1.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$68.0M in FY2025, compounding −47.6%/yr from FY2021.

MGR screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Goodman Group →

Peer Group

REIT - Diversified · 165 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.