VICI Properties Inc (VICI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of VICI Properties Inc $59.95, price $23.70, upside +153.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.26 – $31.27 · fair‑value band $28.13 – $122.37 · the $23.70 price screens below the $59.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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VICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties across the United States and Canada. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 127 million square feet and features approximately 60,300 hotel rooms and over 500 restaurants, bars, nightclubs and sportsbooks. Its properties are occupied by industry-leading gaming, leisure and hospitality operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. VICI Properties has a growing array of real estate and financing partnerships with leading developers and operators in other experiential sectors, including Cabot, Cain, Canyon Ranch, Chelsea Piers, Great Wolf Resorts, Homefield, Kalahari Resorts and Lucky Strike Entertainment. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and approximately 33 acres of undeveloped and underdeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' goal is to create the highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio through a strategy of partnering with the highest quality experiential place makers and operators. VICI Properties Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is based in New York, United States.
Stock analysis
VICI Properties Inc (VICI) currently trades at $23.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.95, implying the stock looks roughly 60.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $63.33 per share, and 11 of the 14 models we run sit above the $23.70 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.91, and 3 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $28.13 (bear) to $122.37 (bull), the price of $23.70 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
VICI Properties Inc reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +27.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.8B in FY2025, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $25.8B · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 6.36 · EPS (TTM) $2.58 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 69.3% · Return on equity 9.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 153%, VICI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $28.13Fair Value $59.95Bull $122.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5706 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +71.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+16.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.75% → 91%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.7% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside+153% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)68% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)70% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is VICI Properties Inc (VICI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.95 versus a price of $23.70, about +153% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VICI?
Our model-based fair value for VICI Properties Inc is $59.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.70.
What is the quality score of VICI?
VICI Properties Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.13, optimistic scenario $122.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the VICI Properties Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.95, about +153% upside versus a price of $23.70 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $28.13, optimistic scenario $122.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
VICI Properties Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does VICI Properties Inc pay a dividend?
VICI Properties Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, VICI Properties Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +3.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VICI use?
Our models discount VICI Properties Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For VICI Properties Inc that is +3.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has VICI Properties Inc (VICI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at VICI Properties Inc grew +26.7 % a year. The price currently implies +3.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of VICI Properties Inc (VICI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into VICI Properties Inc (+3.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.71 %: that much free cash flow VICI Properties Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For VICI Properties Inc it is $59.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $23.70. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is VICI Properties Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, VICI trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.70, fair value $59.95, a gap of about +153% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VICI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.95). For VICI Properties Inc the two are $36.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is VICI Properties Inc worth?
The market values VICI Properties Inc at about $25.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $23.70; our models calculate a fair value of $59.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VICI?
Our models span a range for VICI Properties Inc: cautious scenario $28.13, base $59.95, optimistic $122.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $23.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VICI?
VICI Properties Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
Balance-sheet figures for VICI Properties Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.9%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VICI from its 52-week high?
VICI Properties Inc trades at $23.70, about 23% below its 52-week high of $30.75 and at the low of $23.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to VICI Properties Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, W. P. Carey Inc, Charter Hall Group, Stockland, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is VICI Properties Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $23.70, calculated fair value $59.95 (+153%), Quality Score 59/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VICI calculated?
We run VICI Properties Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $59.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. VICI Properties Inc currently trades 153 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $23.70. Our model-based fair value is $59.95, about +153% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with VICI Properties Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($28.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($28.13 to $122.37). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of VICI Properties Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The market capitalisation of VICI Properties Inc is $25.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of VICI Properties Inc is 6.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
Earnings per share at VICI Properties Inc are $2.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The dividend yield of VICI Properties Inc is 7.6% (payout 69.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The net margin of VICI Properties Inc is 69.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of VICI Properties Inc is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of VICI Properties Inc is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
The operating margin of VICI Properties Inc is 70.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
Revenue at VICI Properties Inc is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at VICI Properties Inc (VICI)?
Earnings per share at VICI Properties Inc are growing −41.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does VICI Properties Inc (VICI) carry?
The net debt of VICI Properties Inc is $17.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026