Appier Group (APPIF) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $507M
Appier Group
APPIF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $2.78 to $2.64 (−5.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +29.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range $4.80 – $14.98 · fair‑value band $1.98 – $3.30 · the $6.19 price screens above the $2.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Appier Group (APPIF) currently trades at $6.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.64, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Appier Group generated revenue of $46.5B at a net margin of 5.6%. Revenue grew 29.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at $268M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.98 (bear case) to $3.30 (bull case); at $6.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -57%, APPIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($5.62) versus Asset-Based ($1.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Appier Group, Inc., operates as AI-native SaaS company in Japan and internationally. The company offers ad cloud products, such as RETARGETING, an AI-powered segmentation re-engages high-value users, driving conversions and sustainable growth; AIBID, an AI-driven bidding optimization product; AdCreative.ai, an all-in-one AI platform for enterprises; and …
Full company description
Appier Group, Inc., operates as AI-native SaaS company in Japan and internationally. The company offers ad cloud products, such as RETARGETING, an AI-powered segmentation re-engages high-value users, driving conversions and sustainable growth; AIBID, an AI-driven bidding optimization product; AdCreative.ai, an all-in-one AI platform for enterprises; and AIXPERT for campaign decisions. It also provides personalization cloud products, including AIQUA, a machine learning marketing cloud for personalized customer experiences; AiDeal, which converts visitors into immediate shoppers; and BotBonnie, a no-code instant messaging solution for brands. In addition, the company offers data cloud products comprising AIXON, a data augmentation platform; AIRIS, a customer data platform; and data cloud, which connects, enriches, and activates customer data using AI-powered agents. It serves e-commerce, retail, finance and insurance, gaming, and automobile industries. Appier Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Appier Group reported revenue of $43.7B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +36.3%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025.
APPIF screens 57% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 368 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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