Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Appier Group Inc. stock $4.42, price $9.57, that is 53.8% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
45‑month range $5.47 – $17.10 · fair‑value band $3.31 – $5.52 · the $9.57 price screens above the $4.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Appier Group, Inc., operates as AI-native SaaS company in Japan and internationally.
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The company offers ad cloud products, such as RETARGETING, an AI-powered segmentation re-engages high-value users, driving conversions and sustainable growth; AIBID, an AI-driven bidding optimization product; AdCreative.ai, an all-in-one AI platform for enterprises; and AIXPERT for campaign decisions.
It also provides personalization cloud products, including AIQUA, a machine learning marketing cloud for personalized customer experiences; AiDeal, which converts visitors into immediate shoppers; and BotBonnie, a no-code instant messaging solution for brands.
In addition, the company offers data cloud products comprising AIXON, a data augmentation platform; AIRIS, a customer data platform; and data cloud, which connects, enriches, and activates customer data using AI-powered agents.
It serves e-commerce, retail, finance and insurance, gaming, and automobile industries. Appier Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) currently trades at $9.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.42, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.50 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the $9.57 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8100, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.31 (bear) to $5.52 (bull), the price of $9.57 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Appier Group Inc. reported revenue of ¥43.7B in FY2025 versus ¥12.7B in FY2021, a compound +36.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $977M Small · P/E ratio 45.6 · P/S ratio 2.67 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 99% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −54%, APPIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.31Fair Value $4.42Bull$5.52
Price $9.57 · Downside -53.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1701 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.0%
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +71.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−18% → 7%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 155% above its own trend.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−53.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)45.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)3.18× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA16.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 22
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Appier Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APPIF
Frequently asked questions
Is Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.42 versus a price of $9.57, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APPIF?
Our model-based fair value for Appier Group Inc. is $4.42 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.57.
What is the quality score of APPIF?
Appier Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.42 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.31, optimistic scenario $5.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Appier Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.42, about 54% lower versus a price of $9.57 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.31, optimistic scenario $5.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Appier Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥49.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Appier Group Inc. pay a dividend?
Appier Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Appier Group Inc. pays a dividend of $0.0141 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 29, 2026. The payout ratio is 9.0% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.1% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.1% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Appier Group Inc. it is $4.42 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of $9.57. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Appier Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, APPIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.57, fair value $4.42, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APPIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.42). For Appier Group Inc. the two are $5.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Appier Group Inc. worth?
The market values Appier Group Inc. at about $977M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is $9.57; our models calculate a fair value of $4.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APPIF?
Our models span a range for Appier Group Inc.: cautious scenario $3.31, base $4.42, optimistic $5.52 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price $9.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APPIF?
Appier Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.6 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.42 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.2, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 16.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Appier Group Inc. (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APPIF from its 52-week high?
Appier Group Inc. trades at $9.57, about 8% below its 52-week high of $10.42 and 99% above the low of $4.80 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Appier Group Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Appier Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price $9.57, calculated fair value $4.42 (−54%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APPIF calculated?
We run Appier Group Inc. through 16 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9% above its aggregate fair value. Appier Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $9.57. Our model-based fair value is $4.42, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Appier Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.52). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Appier Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The market capitalisation of Appier Group Inc. is $977M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Appier Group Inc. is 2.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Earnings per share at Appier Group Inc. are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The dividend yield of Appier Group Inc. is 0.1% (payout 6.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The net margin of Appier Group Inc. is 5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Appier Group Inc. is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Appier Group Inc. is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The operating margin of Appier Group Inc. is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Revenue at Appier Group Inc. is growing +24.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Earnings per share at Appier Group Inc. are growing +137% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) generate?
The free cash flow of Appier Group Inc. is −¥1.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) carry?
The net debt of Appier Group Inc. is ¥268M (fiscal year 2020). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 12, 2026