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Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Appier Group Inc. $4.39, price $8.40, upside -47.7%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US

AG Appier Group Inc. logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Appier Group Inc.

APPIF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $4.39 · Strongly overvalued (−47.7%)
!Quality 48/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +37.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$15.01 $4.80 Fair Value $4.39 Feb 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

43‑month range $4.80 – $15.01 · fair‑value band $3.29 – $5.49 · the $8.40 price screens above the $4.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Appier Group, Inc., operates as AI-native SaaS company in Japan and internationally.

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Appier Group, Inc., operates as AI-native SaaS company in Japan and internationally. The company offers ad cloud products, such as RETARGETING, an AI-powered segmentation re-engages high-value users, driving conversions and sustainable growth; AIBID, an AI-driven bidding optimization product; AdCreative.ai, an all-in-one AI platform for enterprises; and AIXPERT for campaign decisions. It also provides personalization cloud products, including AIQUA, a machine learning marketing cloud for personalized customer experiences; AiDeal, which converts visitors into immediate shoppers; and BotBonnie, a no-code instant messaging solution for brands. In addition, the company offers data cloud products comprising AIXON, a data augmentation platform; AIRIS, a customer data platform; and data cloud, which connects, enriches, and activates customer data using AI-powered agents. It serves e-commerce, retail, finance and insurance, gaming, and automobile industries. Appier Group, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) currently trades at $8.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.39, 47.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $7.66 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $8.40 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.56, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.29 (bear) to $5.49 (bull), the price of $8.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Appier Group Inc. reported revenue of ¥43.7B in FY2025 versus ¥12.7B in FY2021, a compound +36.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.6B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $856M · P/E ratio 52.5 · P/S ratio 3.07 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 1.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −48%, APPIF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.29 Fair Value $4.39 Bull $5.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $1.77 $1.81 $1.95 76
EPV $1.72 $1.90 $2.05 74
Owner Earnings $1.81 $3.35 $6.20 73
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $1.81 $3.35 $6.20 73
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.09 $7.60 $10.66 63
Lynch FV $3.65 $5.22 $6.79 61
PEG = 1.0 $3.65 $5.22 $6.79 57
EPV $1.72 $1.90 $2.05 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.36 $4.48 $5.61 63
P/S Multiple $2.04 $2.72 $3.40 58
P/B Multiple $2.04 $2.72 $3.40 55
EV/EBIT $3.73 $4.85 $5.96 66
EV/EBITDA $6.17 $8.10 $10.03 67
EV/Revenue $2.07 $2.80 $3.52 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.16 $1.56 $2.33 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $1.77 $1.81 $1.95 76
ROIC Compounder $1.72 $1.90 $2.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.36 $7.66 $9.96 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 23
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 30
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 30
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 67
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +71.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−18% → 7%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 155% above its own trend.

APPIF screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 366 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −47.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.4% · Above median
Return on assets 3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 1.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 29.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 45.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.16× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 52.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B 3.61× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.88× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 17.7× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 53
PAST (return on equity)29 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 36

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Synopsys, Inc SNPS $425.76 $249.20 −41%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $87.59 $58.32 −33%
Block, Inc XYZ $76.42 $76.95 +1%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $204.41 $157.26 −23%
Okta, Inc OKTA $202.18 $142.12 −30%

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Appier Group Inc. · Fair Value
$4.39 −48%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Appier Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APPIF

Frequently asked questions

Is Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.39 versus a price of $8.40, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APPIF?
Our model-based fair value for Appier Group Inc. is $4.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.40.
What is the quality score of APPIF?
Appier Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.39 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.29, optimistic scenario $5.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Appier Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.39, about −48% upside versus a price of $8.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.29, optimistic scenario $5.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Appier Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥46.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Appier Group Inc. it is $4.39 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $8.40. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Appier Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, APPIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.40, fair value $4.39, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APPIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.39). For Appier Group Inc. the two are $4.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Appier Group Inc. worth?
The market values Appier Group Inc. at about $856M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $8.40; our models calculate a fair value of $4.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APPIF?
Our models span a range for Appier Group Inc.: cautious scenario $3.29, base $4.39, optimistic $5.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $8.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APPIF?
Appier Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.39 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Appier Group Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APPIF from its 52-week high?
Appier Group Inc. trades at $8.40, about 28% below its 52-week high of $11.66 and 75% above the low of $4.80 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Appier Group Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Appier Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $8.40, calculated fair value $4.39 (−48%), Quality Score 48/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APPIF calculated?
We run Appier Group Inc. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Appier Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $8.40. Our model-based fair value is $4.39, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Appier Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Appier Group Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The market capitalisation of Appier Group Inc. is $856M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Appier Group Inc. is 3.07 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Earnings per share at Appier Group Inc. are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 52.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The net margin of Appier Group Inc. is 5.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Appier Group Inc. is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Appier Group Inc. is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
The operating margin of Appier Group Inc. is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Revenue at Appier Group Inc. is growing +29.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Appier Group Inc. (APPIF)?
Earnings per share at Appier Group Inc. are growing +97.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) generate?
The free cash flow of Appier Group Inc. is −¥1.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Appier Group Inc. (APPIF) carry?
The net debt of Appier Group Inc. is ¥268M (fiscal year 2020). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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