Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Palantir Technologies Inc. stock $42.20, price $172, that is 75.5% below the price, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.00 – $209.05 · fair‑value band $23.80 – $81.60 · the $172.40 price screens above the $42.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.
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Palantir Technologies Inc. builds and deploys software platforms for the intelligence community to assist in counterterrorism investigations and operations in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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It provides Palantir Gotham integrates with other platforms for defense offerings which enables users to see, understand, and act in the modern battlespace; operations centers to the tactical edge; integrating data from domains and sensors in near real-time; and situational awareness and accelerating operational decision-making, as well as facilitates the hand-off between analysts and operational users, helping operators plan and execute real-world responses to threats that have been identified within the platform.
The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that helps organizations operate by creating a central operating system for their data; and allows individual users to integrate and analyze the data they need in one place.
In addition, it provides Palantir Apollo, a software that delivers software and updates across the business, as well as enables customers to deploy their software virtually in any environment; and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform that provides unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs) that can transform structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects and can turn organizations' actions and processes into tools for humans and LLM-driven agents.
The company also has a strategic partnership with Ondas Inc. to develop and deploy AI-enabled operational capabilities to scale stratospheric, aerial, and land-based ISR missions. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Aventura, Florida.
Stock analysis
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) currently trades at $172.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.20, 76% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $33.88 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $172.40 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $8.01, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $23.80 (bear) to $81.60 (bull), the price of $172.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Palantir Technologies Inc. reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +30.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $443B Mega · P/E ratio 109.1 · P/S ratio 60.8 · EPS (TTM) $1.42 · Net margin 50.3% · Return on equity 40.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 46.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 93 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −76%, PLTR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.97 to $33.88). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$23.80Fair Value $42.20Bull$81.60
Price $172.40 · Downside -75.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 9 officers or directors sold shares worth $263.6M and none bought.
SaleLauren Elaina Friedman StatDirector8× since Jan 2, 2026: 19,160 shares, avg. $179.28$3.4MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAlexander D. MooreDirector11× since Dec 1, 2025: 188,000 shares, avg. $157.48$29.6MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEric H. WoerschingDirector1,000 shares at $205.00$205,000Oct 9, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleRyan D. TaylorOfficer5× since Nov 20, 2025: 125,711 shares, avg. $161.18$20.3MOct 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJeffrey BuckleyOfficer5× since Nov 20, 2025: 15,181 shares, avg. $149.35$2.3MAug 21, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAlexander C. KarpOfficer, Director4× since Nov 20, 2025: 1,788,006 shares, avg. $152.22$272.2MAug 20, 2026
SaleShyam SankarOfficer5× since Nov 20, 2025: 722,394 shares, avg. $141.24$102.0MAug 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleStephen Andrew CohenOfficer, Director3× since Nov 20, 2025: 994,793 shares, avg. $144.74$144.0MMay 20, 2026
SaleDavid A. GlazerOfficer4× since Nov 20, 2025: 61,096 shares, avg. $150.49$9.2MMay 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePeter ThielDirector2,000,000 shares at $144.86$289.7MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+56.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+88.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+88.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−107% → 32%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+58.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+51.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.6% a year for the price and +47.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: The specialized data platform and contracts deliver moderate durable advantage, yet this is offset by competition plus mixed alignment signals and a history of significant insider sales.
Main risk: Generative AI models and platforms from rivals could let customers build or replicate ontology and decision workflows in-house or via cheaper tools, reducing need for Palantir's core platforms.
Bull case: Palantir could leverage its ontology and sovereign AI partnerships to integrate open models while retaining control, turning commoditization into an advantage for secure enterprise deployments.
Bear case: If rivals replicate the ontology layer and governments restrict contracts over sovereignty fears, Palantir could lose significant commercial and international government deployments, shrinking its addressable market.
Palantir’s revenue nearly doubled in the latest quarter as U.S. commercial sales surpassed government revenue for the first time. Yet total contract value grew only 6 percent year over year, a sharp slowdown from the prior quarter’s 49 percent pace. With our models seeing the shares as overvalued, does sustained expansion depend more on deeper penetration of existing customers or on maintaining rapid new large-deal momentum?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−75.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)40.9% · Top 25%
Return on assets18.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)50.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)46.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)95.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Palantir Technologies Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PLTR
Frequently asked questions
Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.20 versus a price of $172.40, about 76% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PLTR?
Our model-based fair value for Palantir Technologies Inc. is $42.20 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $172.40.
What is the quality score of PLTR?
Palantir Technologies Inc. has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.20 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.80, optimistic scenario $81.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Palantir Technologies Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.20, about 76% lower versus a price of $172.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.80, optimistic scenario $81.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Palantir Technologies Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Palantir Technologies Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +58.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.6 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PLTR use?
Our models discount Palantir Technologies Inc. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 1.61, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Palantir Technologies Inc. that is +58.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Palantir Technologies Inc. grew +32.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +58.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Palantir Technologies Inc. (+58.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.47 %: that much free cash flow Palantir Technologies Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Palantir Technologies Inc. it is $42.20 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of $172.40. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Palantir Technologies Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, PLTR trades above its calculated fair value: price $172.40, fair value $42.20, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PLTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($172.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.20). For Palantir Technologies Inc. the two are $130.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Palantir Technologies Inc. worth?
The market values Palantir Technologies Inc. at about $443B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is $172.40; our models calculate a fair value of $42.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PLTR?
Our models span a range for Palantir Technologies Inc.: cautious scenario $23.80, base $42.20, optimistic $81.60 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price $172.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PLTR?
Palantir Technologies Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 109.1 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/S 60.8.
What is the PEG ratio of PLTR?
The PEG ratio of Palantir Technologies Inc. is 1.56 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Palantir Technologies Inc. (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 40.9%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PLTR from its 52-week high?
Palantir Technologies Inc. trades at $172.40, about 18% below its 52-week high of $209.05 and 61% above the low of $107.27 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $42.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Palantir Technologies Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Palantir Technologies Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price $172.40, calculated fair value $42.20 (−76%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PLTR calculated?
We run Palantir Technologies Inc. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $42.20 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Palantir Technologies Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $172.40. Our model-based fair value is $42.20, about 76% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Palantir Technologies Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($81.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($23.80 to $81.60). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Palantir Technologies Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The market capitalisation of Palantir Technologies Inc. is $443B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Palantir Technologies Inc. is 60.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Earnings per share at Palantir Technologies Inc. are $1.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 109.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The net margin of Palantir Technologies Inc. is 50.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Palantir Technologies Inc. is 40.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Palantir Technologies Inc. is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
The operating margin of Palantir Technologies Inc. is 46.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Revenue at Palantir Technologies Inc. is growing +95.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)?
Earnings per share at Palantir Technologies Inc. are growing +144% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hold?
Palantir Technologies Inc. holds more cash than debt, $1.2B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 12, 2026