Arcadis NV (ARCAY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Arcadis NV $58.80, price $44.81, upside +31.2%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.75 – $69.60 · fair‑value band $43.54 – $73.50 · the $44.81 price screens below the $58.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Arcadis NV engages in the design, engineering, architecture, and consultancy solutions for natural and built assets in The Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Places, Mobility, Resilience, and Intelligence segments.
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Arcadis NV engages in the design, engineering, architecture, and consultancy solutions for natural and built assets in The Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Places, Mobility, Resilience, and Intelligence segments. It provides architecture and urbanism services; and asset management services, such as asset management strategy and planning, asset management decision making and operational optimization, life cycle planning and asset management systems, asset information/condition assessment, risk and review, organization and people, and asset management/O&M. The company also provides business advisory services, including asset strategy and performance, business transformation and resiliency, investment and finance, operations and maintenance, and technology and information; contract solutions; cost and commercial management services; and design and engineering solutions for highways, railways, bridges, tunnels, power utilities, water utilities, ports and waterways, geotechnics, architecture, and structures, as well as building mechanical, electrical, and plumbing. In addition, it offers digital environmental health safety and sustainability, environmental restoration, and project management solutions. Further, the company provides mobility solutions for connected highways, intelligent rail and transit, integrated airports, and new mobility; places solutions; resilience solutions, such as energy transition, climate adaption, water optimization, enviro socio permitting, sustainable advisory, environmental restoration, and sustainable operations; and water supply and treatment, distribution, resource management, and industrial water and wastewater services. The company was formerly known as Heidemij NV and changed its name to Arcadis N.V. in October 1997. The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Stock analysis
Arcadis NV (ARCAY) currently trades at $44.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.80, implying the stock looks roughly 23.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $70.72 per share, and 18 of the 26 models we run sit above the $44.81 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.19, and 8 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $43.54 (bear) to $73.50 (bull), the price of $44.81 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arcadis NV reported revenue of €4.9B in FY2025 versus €3.4B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was €208M in FY2025, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.0B · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) $2.70 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 18.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 31%, ARCAY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $43.54Fair Value $58.80Bull $73.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.25 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+64.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+62.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.62.0% vs 7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.8% a year for the price and −5.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+29.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)16.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.67× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arcadis NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARCAY
Frequently asked questions
Is Arcadis NV (ARCAY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.80 versus a price of $44.81, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARCAY?
Our model-based fair value for Arcadis NV is $58.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.81.
What is the quality score of ARCAY?
Arcadis NV has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.80 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $43.54, optimistic scenario $73.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arcadis NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.80, about +31% upside versus a price of $44.81 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $43.54, optimistic scenario $73.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Arcadis NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arcadis NV pay a dividend?
Arcadis NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.34% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arcadis NV would have to grow free cash flow by -2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARCAY use?
Our models discount Arcadis NV at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arcadis NV that is -2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arcadis NV (ARCAY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arcadis NV grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies -2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arcadis NV (ARCAY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arcadis NV (-2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.40 %: that much free cash flow Arcadis NV produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arcadis NV it is $58.80 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $44.81. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arcadis NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARCAY trades below its calculated fair value: price $44.81, fair value $58.80, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARCAY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.80). For Arcadis NV the two are $13.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arcadis NV worth?
The market values Arcadis NV at about $4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $44.81; our models calculate a fair value of $58.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARCAY?
Our models span a range for Arcadis NV: cautious scenario $43.54, base $58.80, optimistic $73.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $44.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARCAY?
Arcadis NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $58.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 3.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ARCAY?
The PEG ratio of Arcadis NV is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arcadis NV (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.4%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARCAY from its 52-week high?
Arcadis NV trades at $44.81, about 22% below its 52-week high of $57.22 and 52% above the low of $29.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $58.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arcadis NV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arcadis NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $44.81, calculated fair value $58.80 (+31%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARCAY calculated?
We run Arcadis NV through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $58.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Arcadis NV currently trades 24 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $44.81. Our model-based fair value is $58.80, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arcadis NV right now?
Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Arcadis NV (ARCAY) come from?
Earnings per share at Arcadis NV grew +9.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin +4.4 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arcadis NV
How large is the market capitalisation of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The market capitalisation of Arcadis NV is $4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arcadis NV is 0.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Earnings per share at Arcadis NV are $2.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The dividend yield of Arcadis NV is 2.3% (payout 38.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The net margin of Arcadis NV is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arcadis NV is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arcadis NV is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
The operating margin of Arcadis NV is 6.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Revenue at Arcadis NV is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arcadis NV (ARCAY)?
Earnings per share at Arcadis NV are growing −21.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arcadis NV (ARCAY) carry?
The net debt of Arcadis NV is €808M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026