Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Arwana Citramulia Tbk IDR 1,028, price IDR 525, upside +95.8%, quality 75 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 408.00 IDR – 849.98 IDR · fair‑value band 653.09 IDR – 1,336 IDR · the 525.00 IDR price screens below the 1,028 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes ceramic tiles in Indonesia and internationally. It also offers porcelain and granite tiles under the Arna, Arwana Ceramics, and UNO brands. The company was formerly known as PT Arwana Citra Mulia and changed its name to PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk in November 1993.
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PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes ceramic tiles in Indonesia and internationally. It also offers porcelain and granite tiles under the Arna, Arwana Ceramics, and UNO brands. The company was formerly known as PT Arwana Citra Mulia and changed its name to PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk in November 1993. PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) currently trades at 525.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,028 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 48.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 1,028 IDR per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the 525.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 180.78 IDR, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 653.09 IDR (bear) to 1,336 IDR (bull), the price of 525.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Arwana Citramulia Tbk reported revenue of 2.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.6T IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was 400B IDR in FY2025, compounding −4.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.6T IDR (≈ $357M) · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 1.22 · EPS (TTM) 59.04 IDR · Dividend yield 8.6% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 23.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 96%, ARNA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 653.09 IDRFair Value 1,028 IDRBull 1,336 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.31 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 16%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 253 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+96% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
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Is Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,028 IDR versus a price of 525.00 IDR, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARNA?
Our model-based fair value for Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 1,028 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 525.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ARNA?
Arwana Citramulia Tbk has a Quality Score of 75/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,028 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 653.09 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,336 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arwana Citramulia Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,028 IDR, about +96% upside versus a price of 525.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 653.09 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,336 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Arwana Citramulia Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Arwana Citramulia Tbk pay a dividend?
Arwana Citramulia Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.57% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arwana Citramulia Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARNA use?
Our models discount Arwana Citramulia Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arwana Citramulia Tbk that is -0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arwana Citramulia Tbk grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arwana Citramulia Tbk (-0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.13 %: that much free cash flow Arwana Citramulia Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arwana Citramulia Tbk it is 1,028 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 525.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arwana Citramulia Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARNA trades below its calculated fair value: price 525.00 IDR, fair value 1,028 IDR, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARNA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (525.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,028 IDR). For Arwana Citramulia Tbk the two are 502.89 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arwana Citramulia Tbk worth?
The market values Arwana Citramulia Tbk at about 3.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 525.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 1,028 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARNA?
Our models span a range for Arwana Citramulia Tbk: cautious scenario 653.09 IDR, base 1,028 IDR, optimistic 1,336 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 525.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARNA?
Arwana Citramulia Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,028 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arwana Citramulia Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 75/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARNA from its 52-week high?
Arwana Citramulia Tbk trades at 525.00 IDR, at its 52-week high of 525.00 IDR and 29% above the low of 408.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,028 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arwana Citramulia Tbk?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arwana Citramulia Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 525.00 IDR, calculated fair value 1,028 IDR (+96%), Quality Score 75/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARNA calculated?
We run Arwana Citramulia Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,028 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arwana Citramulia Tbk currently trades 96 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 525.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 1,028 IDR, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arwana Citramulia Tbk right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (75/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (653.09 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (653.09 IDR to 1,336 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) come from?
Earnings per share at Arwana Citramulia Tbk grew +13.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +4.8 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arwana Citramulia Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The market capitalisation of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 3.6T IDR (≈ $357M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 1.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Earnings per share at Arwana Citramulia Tbk are 59.04 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The dividend yield of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 8.6% (payout 76.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The net margin of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 23.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 23.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
The operating margin of Arwana Citramulia Tbk is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Revenue at Arwana Citramulia Tbk is growing +22.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA)?
Earnings per share at Arwana Citramulia Tbk are growing +44.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) hold?
Arwana Citramulia Tbk holds more cash than debt, 305B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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