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PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, (ARNA) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · ID · Market cap 3.2T IDR

PA PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, ARNA · JK
Price500.00 IDR
Fair Value1,196 IDR
Upside+139.3%
Quality72/100
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Healthy Growth
Solidly profitable · 13.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: High Range 854.19 IDR – 1,495 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +8.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 139% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (72/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (854.19 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

849.98 IDR 408.00 IDR Fair Value 1,196 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 408.00 IDR – 849.98 IDR · fair‑value band 854.19 IDR – 1,495 IDR · the 500.00 IDR price screens below the 1,196 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, (ARNA) currently trades at 500.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,196 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 139.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, generated revenue of 2.9T IDR at a net margin of 13.3%. Revenue declined 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 305B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 854.19 IDR (bear case) to 1,495 IDR (bull case); at 500.00 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 139%, ARNA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 737.68 IDR 1,261 IDR 2,189 IDR 80
Residual Income 391.80 IDR 521.26 IDR 2,444 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 620.77 IDR 1,013 IDR 1,511 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 737.17 IDR 1,287 IDR 2,266 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 476.13 IDR 816.25 IDR 1,421 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 620.77 IDR 1,020 IDR 1,554 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 838.93 IDR 1,462 IDR 2,236 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 834.02 IDR 1,452 IDR 2,150 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 635.61 IDR 1,031 IDR 1,619 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 800.77 IDR 1,359 IDR 2,192 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 797.47 IDR 1,351 IDR 2,120 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 387.37 IDR 1,683 IDR 2,302 IDR 54
Lynch FV 433.06 IDR 618.66 IDR 804.26 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 433.06 IDR 618.66 IDR 804.26 IDR 46
EPV 631.87 IDR 733.89 IDR 824.57 IDR 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 897.23 IDR 1,196 IDR 1,495 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 621.84 IDR 829.11 IDR 1,036 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 726.33 IDR 968.44 IDR 1,211 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 1,004 IDR 1,321 IDR 1,638 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 958.76 IDR 1,260 IDR 1,562 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 576.10 IDR 799.96 IDR 1,024 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 134.91 IDR 180.78 IDR 269.82 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 737.68 IDR 1,261 IDR 2,189 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 620.77 IDR 1,013 IDR 1,511 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 391.80 IDR 521.26 IDR 2,444 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 705.34 IDR 923.10 IDR 1,200 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 719.52 IDR 1,028 IDR 1,336 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (1,287 IDR) versus Asset-Based (180.78 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.9T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -8.5%
Net margin 13.3%
Return on equity 19.3%
Free cash flow 361B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 7.8
More key figures
Operating margin 17.7%
EPS (TTM) 52.89 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -20.3%
Net cash 305B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 72/100

Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 97
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 48
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes ceramic tiles in Indonesia and internationally. It also offers porcelain and granite tiles under the Arna, Arwana Ceramics, and UNO brands. The company was formerly known as PT Arwana Citra Mulia and changed its name to PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk in November 1993.

Full company description

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes ceramic tiles in Indonesia and internationally. It also offers porcelain and granite tiles under the Arna, Arwana Ceramics, and UNO brands. The company was formerly known as PT Arwana Citra Mulia and changed its name to PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk in November 1993. PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, reported revenue of 2.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.6T IDR in FY2021, a compound +3.3%/yr. Reported net income was 400B IDR in FY2025, compounding −4.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 80/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.9T IDR
Latest YoY
+10.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.7%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.8%
Revenue +3.3%/yr
FY21 2.6T IDR
FY22 2.6T IDR
FY23 2.4T IDR
FY24 2.6T IDR
FY25 2.9T IDR
Net income −4.0%/yr
FY21 471B IDR
FY22 576B IDR
FY23 445B IDR
FY24 426B IDR
FY25 400B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +13.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.0 pp

of which total revenue +6.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.2 pp

EBIT margin +4.8 pp
Tax rate +0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARNA

Peer Group

Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +139% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 19% · Top 25%
Return on assets 11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.7× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.71× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 1.14× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 3
FUTURE 0 · sector 9
PAST 77 · sector 23
HEALTH 100 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 28

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Trane Technologies plc TT $469.98 $212.34 -55%
Johnson Controls International plc JCI $142.81 $45.65 -68%
Carrier Global Corporation CARR $68.61 $17.35 -75%
Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO €76.62 €101.60 +33%
Geberit AG GEBN CHF 523.20 CHF 307.66 -41%
Lennox International Inc LII $543.93 $363.09 -33%
Kingspan Group KRX €87.30 €70.76 -19%
Masco Corporation MAS $78.04 $54.36 -30%
PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC 1,420 IDR 179.76 IDR -87%
NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB kr 36.03 kr 25.37 -30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, (ARNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,196 IDR versus a price of 500.00 IDR, about +139% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARNA?
Our model-based fair value for PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, is 1,196 IDR (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 500.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ARNA?
PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, (ARNA)?
PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ARNA?
The net profit margin of PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk, is about 13.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 13.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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