Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Arsan Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of yarn in Turkey and internationally. It offers threads, knitted and woven fabrics, and knitted, woven fabrics, and yarn dyeing and finishing products.
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Arsan Holding Anonim Sirketi, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of yarn in Turkey and internationally. It offers threads, knitted and woven fabrics, and knitted, woven fabrics, and yarn dyeing and finishing products. The company is also involved in electricity generation and distribution; Construction, and Shopping Mall Management and Leasing; finance; marketing; and operation of hotel under the A'ija brand name. The company was formerly known as Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi Anonim Sirketi and changed its name to Arsan Holding Anonim Sirketi in February 2026. Arsan Holding Anonim Sirketi was incorporated in 1984 and is based in Kahramanmaras, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN) currently trades at 4.08 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.16 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 88.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 4.36 TRY per share, and 2 of the 8 models we run sit above the 4.08 TRY price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 1.04 TRY, and 6 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.94 TRY (bear) to 2.41 TRY (bull), the price of 4.08 TRY sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS reported revenue of 136M TRY in FY2025 versus 499M TRY in FY2021, a compound −27.7%/yr. Reported net income was −388M TRY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 7.2B TRY (≈ $148M) · P/S ratio 25.8 · EPS (TTM) −0.0600 TRY · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin −44.9% · Return on equity −1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.2% · Operating margin −37.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −47%, ARSAN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.94 TRYFair Value 2.16 TRYBull 2.41 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−59.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.2%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.5% (2020) → −146.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+22.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 821 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−45% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−37% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth386% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.53× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF0.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARSAN
Frequently asked questions
Is Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.16 TRY versus a price of 4.08 TRY, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARSAN?
Our model-based fair value for Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is 2.16 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.08 TRY.
What is the quality score of ARSAN?
Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.16 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.94 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.41 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.16 TRY, about −47% upside versus a price of 4.08 TRY (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.94 TRY, optimistic scenario 2.41 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 228M TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS pay a dividend?
Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.14% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS would have to grow free cash flow by +22.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.2 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARSAN use?
Our models discount Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS at 17.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS that is +22.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS grew -13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +22.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (+22.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.32 %: that much free cash flow Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS it is 2.16 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 4.08 TRY. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ARSAN trades above its calculated fair value: price 4.08 TRY, fair value 2.16 TRY, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARSAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.08 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.16 TRY). For Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS the two are 1.92 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS worth?
The market values Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS at about 7.2B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 4.08 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 2.16 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARSAN?
Our models span a range for Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS: cautious scenario 1.94 TRY, base 2.16 TRY, optimistic 2.41 TRY per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 4.08 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.1%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARSAN from its 52-week high?
Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS trades at 4.08 TRY, about 18% below its 52-week high of 4.96 TRY and 59% above the low of 2.56 TRY (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.16 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 4.08 TRY, calculated fair value 2.16 TRY (−47%), Quality Score 54/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARSAN calculated?
We run Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.16 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.41 TRY). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The market capitalisation of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is 7.2B TRY (≈ $148M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is 25.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Earnings per share at Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS are −0.0600 TRY. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The dividend yield of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is 0.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The net margin of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is −44.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is 0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
The operating margin of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is −37.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Revenue at Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is growing +386% versus a year earlier (3y avg −59.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN)?
Earnings per share at Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS are growing +117% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS (ARSAN) carry?
The net debt of Arsan Tekstil Ticaret ve Sanayi AS is 106M TRY (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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