Aeris Resources Limited (ARSRF) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $305M
Aeris Resources Limited
ARSRF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 7 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +9.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1020). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1012 – $1.19 · fair‑value band $0.0595 – $0.1020 · the $0.2796 price screens above the $0.0765 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Aeris Resources Limited (ARSRF) currently trades at $0.2796, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0765, implying the stock looks roughly 72.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aeris Resources Limited generated revenue of $591M at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 6.4. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0595 (bear case) to $0.1020 (bull case); at $0.2796, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 125% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -73%, ARSRF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 7 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($0.4200) versus Earnings-Based ($0.0600). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aeris Resources Limited explores, produces, and sells precious metals in Australia. It explores for copper, zinc, gold, and silver deposits. The company was formerly known as Straits Resources Limited and changed its name to Aeris Resources Limited in December 2015. Aeris Resources Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Aeris Resources Limited reported revenue of $540M in FY2024 versus $227M in FY2020, a compound +24.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$24.3M in FY2024.
ARSRF screens 73% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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