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Ascopiave S.p.A (ASC) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €605M

AS Ascopiave S.p.A ASC · MI
Price€2.81
Fair Value€3.42
Upside+21.9%
Quality53/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 12.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
5.76% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Moderate moat 50/100
Evidence: High Range €2.76 – €4.22 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 20 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €3.78 to €3.42 (−9.5%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −9.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 22% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • Our model range runs from €2.76 (bear) to €4.22 (bull), base €3.42. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 53/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€3.53 €1.46 Fair Value €3.42 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.46 – €3.53 · fair‑value band €2.76 – €4.22 · the €2.81 price screens below the €3.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Ascopiave S.p.A (ASC) currently trades at €2.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.42, implying the stock looks roughly 21.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ascopiave S.p.A generated revenue of €260M at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue grew 29.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.5%. Net debt stands at €577M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.76 (bear case) to €4.22 (bull case); at €2.81, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 22%, ASC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €3.44 €3.70 €4.19 76
Rev-Margin DCF €0.7100 74
ROIC Compounder €0.8000 €1.23 €1.59 72
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €0.5400 €1.42 31
5Y Revenue Exit €0.8600 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €0.7000 €2.73 €5.05 41
5Y P/E Exit €0.6900 €2.72 €4.78 38
10Y Revenue Exit €0.0900 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €1.09 €2.79 37
10Y P/E Exit €1.09 €2.62 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €2.73 €5.52 €6.95 54
EPV €0.8000 €1.23 €1.59 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €5.42 €7.22 €9.03 63
P/S Multiple €2.12 €2.82 €3.53 58
P/B Multiple €5.12 €6.82 €8.53 55
EV/EBIT €2.57 €4.21 €5.84 53
EV/EBITDA €3.09 €4.90 €6.70 54
EV/Revenue €0.4900 €1.33 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €2.11 €2.82 €4.22 50
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF €0.7100 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €3.44 €3.70 €4.19 76
ROIC Compounder €0.8000 €1.23 €1.59 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3.97 €5.67 €7.38 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€5.67) versus DCF Models (€1.09). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €285M
Revenue growth (YoY) +47.3%
Net margin 12.7%
Return on equity 4.1%
Free cash flow €18.7M FY2025
P/E ratio 16.4
More key figures
Operating margin 19.5%
EPS (TTM) €0.1700
Dividend yield 5.8%
EPS growth (YoY) -87.3%
Net debt €577M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 24
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ascopiave S.p.A. engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy. It operates through Gas Distribution, Renewable Energy, and Other segments. The company holds concessions and direct assignments for the management of gas distribution in various municipalities; and provides services to users through a distribution network, as well as to catchment area.

Full company description

Ascopiave S.p.A. engages in the distribution of natural gas in Italy. It operates through Gas Distribution, Renewable Energy, and Other segments. The company holds concessions and direct assignments for the management of gas distribution in various municipalities; and provides services to users through a distribution network, as well as to catchment area. It also involved in the renewable energy and integrated water service sector; heat management and cogeneration activities; and production of energy from renewable sources through the management of hydroelectric, photovoltaic, and wind power plants. The company was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Pieve di Soligo, Italy. Ascopiave S.p.A. is a subsidiary of Asco Holding SpA.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ascopiave S.p.A reported revenue of €244M in FY2025 versus €135M in FY2021, a compound +16.0%/yr. Reported net income was €86.8M in FY2025, compounding +17.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€244M
Latest YoY
+19.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.3%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.1%
Revenue +16.0%/yr
FY21 €135M
FY22 €164M
FY23 €181M
FY24 €205M
FY25 €244M
Net income +17.7%/yr
FY21 €45.3M
FY22 €32.7M
FY23 €36.2M
FY24 €35.8M
FY25 €86.8M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2012-2023) +1.7 % p.a.
Revenue per share −16.5 pp

of which total revenue −16.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.4 pp

EBIT margin +15.3 pp
Tax rate +4.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ascopiave S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASC.MI

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside +22% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 47% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.59× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.77× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.45× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 37.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 63 · sector 26
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 16 · sector 33
HEALTH 70 · sector 85
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 67

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.84 €35.80 +24%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $177.68 $85.67 -52%
NiSource Inc NI $47.07 $28.59 -39%
Uniper SE UN0 €42.80 €49.13 +15%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$7.03 HK$5.08 -28%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹171.71 ₹147.74 -14%
Italgas S.p.A IG €8.76 €8.11 -7%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹723.90 ₹101.36 -86%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.30 ¥25.71 +49%
UGI Corporation UGI $35.84 $27.13 -24%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ascopiave S.p.A (ASC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.42 versus a price of €2.81, about +22% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASC?
Our model-based fair value for Ascopiave S.p.A is €3.42 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €2.81.
What is the quality score of ASC?
Ascopiave S.p.A has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ascopiave S.p.A (ASC)?
Ascopiave S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €260M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ASC?
The net profit margin of Ascopiave S.p.A is about 32.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 32.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ascopiave S.p.A pay a dividend?
Ascopiave S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.31% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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