Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ashok Leyland Limited stock ₹118, price ₹170, that is 30.7% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹44.79 – ₹208.37 · fair‑value band ₹82.61 – ₹153.42 · the ₹170.21 price screens above the ₹118.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Ashok Leyland Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of commercial vehicles in India and internationally.
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It offers buses; haulage and ICV trucks, as well as tractors and tippers; light commercial vehicles goods carriers and passenger, as well as small commercial vehicles goods carriers; and defense vehicles comprising logistics, high mobility, armored, and specialist vehicles.
The company also provides power solutions, such as diesel generators, agriculture engines, industrial engines, and marine engines; spare parts; and vehicle and housing financing services.
In addition, it trades in commercial vehicles; and offers manpower supply, air chartering, and IT services, as well as manufactures forgings and castings. Further, the company operates retail stores; and LeyKart, an e-commerce store for spare parts.
The company was incorporated in 1948 and is headquartered in Chennai, India.
Stock analysis
Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) currently trades at ₹170.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹118.01, 31% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹118.01 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹170.21 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹13.00, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹82.61 (bear) to ₹153.42 (bull), the price of ₹170.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Ashok Leyland Limited reported revenue of ₹561B in FY2026 versus ₹261B in FY2022, a compound +21.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹34.7B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1,000B (≈ $10.6B) Large · P/E ratio 28.5 · P/S ratio 1.73 · EPS (TTM) ₹5.88 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 6.0% · Return on equity 21.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −31%, ASHOKLEY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹82.61Fair Value ₹118.01Bull₹153.42
Price ₹170.21 · Downside -30.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹1.66 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +61.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +59.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 59.4% / 17.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 19%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.57 per share, median 2.88 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
AI conclusion: Strong Q3 results with revenue growth, sustained margins above 13 percent and market share gains highlight the benefits of premiumisation and cost discipline, yet negative free cash flow and elevated debt remain key weaknesses.
Main risk: Cheaper imports from Chinese makers such as Sany and Foton could capture share in electric heavy vehicles or force lower prices and margins on Ashok Leyland's offerings.
Bull case: By accelerating battery localisation with its CALB partnership and expanding its EV and ADAS-ready portfolio the company could strengthen its position against imports and meet regulatory requirements profitably.
Bear case: If Chinese imports continue to benefit from tariff advantages and regulatory compliance proves more costly than expected the company could lose ground in the expanding electric segment and face sustained margin pressure.
Ashok Leyland just posted its strongest third quarter on record, with revenue up 22 percent, PBT rising 38 percent and EBITDA margins holding above 13 percent for the twelfth straight quarter thanks to premiumisation and cost discipline. The company also strengthened its net cash position while gaining market share in heavy commercial vehicles. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Does the market doubt that these margin gains will hold once replacement demand eases, or is it overlooking how structural improvements support profitability even in a softer cycle?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 143 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−30.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)21.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)19.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.23× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B7.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.73× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)58· sector 44
PAST (return on equity)87· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)37· sector 37
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹118.01 versus a price of ₹170.21, about 31% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASHOKLEY?
Our model-based fair value for Ashok Leyland Limited is ₹118.01 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹170.21.
What is the quality score of ASHOKLEY?
Ashok Leyland Limited has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹118.01 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹82.61, optimistic scenario ₹153.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ashok Leyland Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹118.01, about 31% lower versus a price of ₹170.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹82.61, optimistic scenario ₹153.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Ashok Leyland Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹577B (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
Does Ashok Leyland Limited pay a dividend?
Ashok Leyland Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 1.84% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ashok Leyland Limited it is ₹118.01 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of ₹170.21. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ashok Leyland Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ASHOKLEY trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹170.21, fair value ₹118.01, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASHOKLEY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹170.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹118.01). For Ashok Leyland Limited the two are ₹52.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ashok Leyland Limited worth?
The market values Ashok Leyland Limited at about ₹1,000B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is ₹170.21; our models calculate a fair value of ₹118.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASHOKLEY?
Our models span a range for Ashok Leyland Limited: cautious scenario ₹82.61, base ₹118.01, optimistic ₹153.42 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price ₹170.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASHOKLEY?
Ashok Leyland Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.5 (as of Nov 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹118.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 7.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ashok Leyland Limited (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity 21.6%, debt of 3.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASHOKLEY from its 52-week high?
Ashok Leyland Limited trades at ₹170.21, about 18% below its 52-week high of ₹208.37 and 24% above the low of ₹137.15 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹118.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ashok Leyland Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ashok Leyland Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price ₹170.21, calculated fair value ₹118.01 (−31%), Quality Score 39/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASHOKLEY calculated?
We run Ashok Leyland Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹118.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Ashok Leyland Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ₹170.21. Our model-based fair value is ₹118.01, about 31% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ashok Leyland Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹153.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (₹82.61 to ₹153.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) come from?
Earnings per share at Ashok Leyland Limited grew +15.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.6 %, EBIT margin +6.8 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ashok Leyland Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The market capitalisation of Ashok Leyland Limited is ₹1,000B (≈ $10.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ashok Leyland Limited is 1.73 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Earnings per share at Ashok Leyland Limited are ₹5.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The dividend yield of Ashok Leyland Limited is 1.8% (payout 53.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The net margin of Ashok Leyland Limited is 6.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ashok Leyland Limited is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ashok Leyland Limited is 9.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
The operating margin of Ashok Leyland Limited is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Revenue at Ashok Leyland Limited is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY)?
Earnings per share at Ashok Leyland Limited are growing +1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) generate?
The free cash flow of Ashok Leyland Limited is −₹78.4B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ashok Leyland Limited (ASHOKLEY) carry?
The net debt of Ashok Leyland Limited is ₹577B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 1, 2026