Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $17.7B
Ascendis Pharma A/S
ASND · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated today
Share price −7.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 98% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.08 to $9.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.96 – $277.18 · fair‑value band $3.08 – $9.07 · the $246.23 price screens above the $6.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) currently trades at $246.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.08, implying the stock looks roughly 97.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ascendis Pharma A/S generated revenue of $866M at a net margin of 57.3%. Revenue grew 144.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.3%. Net debt stands at $256M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.08 (bear case) to $9.07 (bull case); at $246.23, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -98%, ASND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($21.13) versus Dividend Discount ($1.24). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally.
Full company description
Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating pediatric patients with growth hormone deficiency; and YORVIPATH, a once-daily subcutaneous injection for the treatment of adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism. It is also developing a pipeline of three independent endocrinology rare disease product candidates in clinical development, as well as focuses on advancing oncology therapeutic candidates. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Hellerup, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ascendis Pharma A/S reported revenue of $692M in FY2025 versus $7.8M in FY2021, a compound +207.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$219M in FY2025.
ASND screens 98% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 600 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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