Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Ascendis Pharma AS $34.20, price $226, upside -84.8%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $34.20 · Strongly overvalued (−84.8%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +150.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 70.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers(6/10)
✓Wide moat85/100
!Insider activity35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $69.96 – $277.18 · fair‑value band $20.13 – $41.22 · the $225.60 price screens above the $34.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally.
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Ascendis Pharma A/S, operates as a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on developing TransCon-based therapies for unmet medical needs in Europe, the United States, and internationally. The company offers SKYTROFA for treating pediatric patients with growth hormone deficiency; and YORVIPATH, a once-daily subcutaneous injection for the treatment of adults with chronic hypoparathyroidism. It is also developing a pipeline of three independent endocrinology rare disease product candidates in clinical development, as well as focuses on advancing oncology therapeutic candidates. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Hellerup, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) currently trades at $225.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.20, implying the stock looks roughly 559.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.39 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $225.60 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $12.12, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $20.13 (bear) to $41.22 (bull), the price of $225.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ascendis Pharma AS reported revenue of €692M in FY2025 versus €7.8M in FY2021, a compound +207.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€219M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $15.4B · P/E ratio 17.6 · P/S ratio 14.2 · EPS (TTM) $12.80 · Net margin −31.7% · Return on equity 119% · Return on assets (EBIT) −36.4% · Operating margin 65.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −85%, ASND screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $20.13Fair Value $34.20Bull $41.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.50 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+90.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+138.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+150.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +56.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4,755.1% (2020) → −18.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+48.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +56.1% a year for the price and +45.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−84.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets9.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)70.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)65.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth114.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)17.6× · Cheaper than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)14.72× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF353.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA57.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ascendis Pharma AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASND
Frequently asked questions
Is Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $34.20 versus a price of $225.60, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASND?
Our model-based fair value for Ascendis Pharma AS is $34.20 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $225.60.
What is the quality score of ASND?
Ascendis Pharma AS has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $34.20 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.13, optimistic scenario $41.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ascendis Pharma AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $34.20, about −85% upside versus a price of $225.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.13, optimistic scenario $41.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
Ascendis Pharma AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ascendis Pharma AS would have to grow free cash flow by +59.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +150.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASND use?
Our models discount Ascendis Pharma AS at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ascendis Pharma AS that is +59.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ascendis Pharma AS grew +150.9 % a year. The price currently implies +59.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ascendis Pharma AS (+59.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 %: that much free cash flow Ascendis Pharma AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ascendis Pharma AS it is $34.20 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $225.60. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ascendis Pharma AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ASND trades above its calculated fair value: price $225.60, fair value $34.20, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASND?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($225.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($34.20). For Ascendis Pharma AS the two are $191.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ascendis Pharma AS worth?
The market values Ascendis Pharma AS at about $15.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $225.60; our models calculate a fair value of $34.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASND?
Our models span a range for Ascendis Pharma AS: cautious scenario $20.13, base $34.20, optimistic $41.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $225.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASND?
Ascendis Pharma AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $34.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 14.7, EV/EBITDA 57.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ascendis Pharma AS (as of Sep 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASND from its 52-week high?
Ascendis Pharma AS trades at $225.60, about 19% below its 52-week high of $277.18 and 19% above the low of $189.74 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $34.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ascendis Pharma AS?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ascendis Pharma AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $225.60, calculated fair value $34.20 (−85%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASND calculated?
We run Ascendis Pharma AS through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $34.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ascendis Pharma AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $225.60. Our model-based fair value is $34.20, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ascendis Pharma AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($41.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($20.13 to $41.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ascendis Pharma AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The market capitalisation of Ascendis Pharma AS is $15.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ascendis Pharma AS is 14.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
Earnings per share at Ascendis Pharma AS are $12.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The net margin of Ascendis Pharma AS is −31.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ascendis Pharma AS is 119% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ascendis Pharma AS is −36.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
The operating margin of Ascendis Pharma AS is 65.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND)?
Revenue at Ascendis Pharma AS is growing +115% versus a year earlier (3y avg +138%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Ascendis Pharma AS (ASND) carry?
The net debt of Ascendis Pharma AS is €256M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026