Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk IDR 315, price IDR 123, upside +156.1%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk operates as a property development company in Indonesia. The company engages in the construction and management of residential and commercial areas, as well as management of shopping centers, leisure centers, and hotels.
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PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk operates as a property development company in Indonesia. The company engages in the construction and management of residential and commercial areas, as well as management of shopping centers, leisure centers, and hotels. It is also involved in the provision of building management, consultancy, and investment, as well as provision of support and tourism services, goods sales, organizing art events, and real estate activities. The company was formerly known as PT Adhihutama Manunggal and changed its name to PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk in September 2007. PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) currently trades at 123.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 315.00 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 61.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 695.81 IDR per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the 123.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 349.57 IDR, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 268.98 IDR (bear) to 468.36 IDR (bull), the price of 123.00 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk reported revenue of 2.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 2.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was 313B IDR in FY2025, compounding +21.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.4T IDR (≈ $135M) · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) 15.25 IDR · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 156%, ASRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 268.98 IDRFair Value 315.00 IDRBull 468.36 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (10.10 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.5% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12% vs −6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−12% → 36%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+156% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Is Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 315.00 IDR versus a price of 123.00 IDR, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASRI?
Our model-based fair value for Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 315.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 123.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ASRI?
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 315.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 268.98 IDR, optimistic scenario 468.36 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alam Sutera Realty Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 315.00 IDR, about +156% upside versus a price of 123.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 268.98 IDR, optimistic scenario 468.36 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.0T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alam Sutera Realty Tbk pay a dividend?
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alam Sutera Realty Tbk it is 315.00 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 123.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alam Sutera Realty Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ASRI trades below its calculated fair value: price 123.00 IDR, fair value 315.00 IDR, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (123.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (315.00 IDR). For Alam Sutera Realty Tbk the two are 192.00 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alam Sutera Realty Tbk worth?
The market values Alam Sutera Realty Tbk at about 2.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 123.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 315.00 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASRI?
Our models span a range for Alam Sutera Realty Tbk: cautious scenario 268.98 IDR, base 315.00 IDR, optimistic 468.36 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 123.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASRI?
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 315.00 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of ASRI?
The PEG ratio of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 0.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASRI from its 52-week high?
Alam Sutera Realty Tbk trades at 123.00 IDR, about 34% below its 52-week high of 187.50 IDR and 28% above the low of 95.72 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 315.00 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alam Sutera Realty Tbk?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alam Sutera Realty Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 123.00 IDR, calculated fair value 315.00 IDR (+156%), Quality Score 63/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASRI calculated?
We run Alam Sutera Realty Tbk through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 315.00 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Alam Sutera Realty Tbk currently trades 156 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 123.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 315.00 IDR, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alam Sutera Realty Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (268.98 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) come from?
Earnings per share at Alam Sutera Realty Tbk grew −8.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.4 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The market capitalisation of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 2.4T IDR (≈ $135M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 0.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Earnings per share at Alam Sutera Realty Tbk are 15.25 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The dividend yield of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 1.2% (payout 9.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The net margin of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
The operating margin of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 25.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Revenue at Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI)?
Earnings per share at Alam Sutera Realty Tbk are growing −42.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) generate?
The free cash flow of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 1.3T IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) carry?
The net debt of Alam Sutera Realty Tbk is 5.3T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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