CTP N.V (CTPNV) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · NL · Market cap €8.0B
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −10.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
- Our model range runs from €9.75 (bear) to €16.25 (bull), base €13.00. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 36/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €8.42 – €19.21 · fair‑value band €9.75 – €16.25 · the €15.16 price screens above the €13.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
CTP N.V (CTPNV) currently trades at €15.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €13.00, implying the stock looks roughly 14.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €1.0B. Revenue grew 13.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at €8.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.75 (bear case) to €16.25 (bull case); at €15.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at -14%, CTPNV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€56.84) versus Dividend Discount (€2.61). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CTP N.V. is Europe's largest listed owner, developer, and manager of logistics and industrial real estate by gross lettable area, owning 13.8 million sqm of GLA across 10 countries as at 30 September 2025.
Full company description
CTP N.V. is Europe's largest listed owner, developer, and manager of logistics and industrial real estate by gross lettable area, owning 13.8 million sqm of GLA across 10 countries as at 30 September 2025. CTP certifies all new buildings to BREEAM Very good or better and earned a negligible-risk ESG rating by Sustainalytics, underlining its commitment to being a sustainable business. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. CTP N.V. operates as a subsidiary of CTP Holding B.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CTP N.V reported revenue of €970M in FY2025 versus €407M in FY2021, a compound +24.2%/yr. Reported net income was €1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.
CTPNV screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Vinhomes Joint Stock Company →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 592 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM | 147,000 VND | 147,415 VND | +0% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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