Astec Industries, Inc (ASTE) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.2B
Astec Industries, Inc
ASTE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price −19.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.00 – $72.48 · fair‑value band $20.85 – $29.13 · the $44.25 price screens above the $20.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Astec Industries, Inc (ASTE) currently trades at $44.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.85, implying the stock looks roughly 52.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Astec Industries, Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 1.8%. Revenue grew 20.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at $276M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.85 (bear case) to $29.13 (bull case); at $44.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at -53%, ASTE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($30.45) versus Growth DCF ($1.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Astec Industries, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and services equipment and components used primarily in road building and related construction activities worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions.
Full company description
Astec Industries, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, markets, and services equipment and components used primarily in road building and related construction activities worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Infrastructure Solutions and Materials Solutions. The Infrastructure Solutions segment offers asphalt plants, cold central plant recycles systems, and soil remediation plants; concrete batch plants, liquid asphalt terminals, and thermal fluid heaters; asphalt pavers, material transfer vehicles, and milling machines; and industrial automation controls and telematics platforms, as well as engineering and environmental permitting, various plants components, polymer plants, heat recovery units, industrial and asphalt burners and systems, wood chippers and grinders, and blower trucks and trailers,. The Materials Solutions segment offers jaw, cone, heavy-duty, and mining-application crushers; horizontal and vertical shaft impactors; incline, multi-frequency and high frequency, horizontal, and dewatering screens; washing and classifying plants, fines recovery systems, and water clarification systems; radial and telescoping conveyors, pugmills, truck unloaders, hopper feeders ship loaders and unloaders, and bulk receptions feeders; and Rock breaker systems, hydraulic breakers, compactors, and pulverizers. It provides its products to asphalt or concrete producers; highway and heavy equipment contractors; utility contractors; sand and gravel producers; construction, demolition, recycle and crushing contractors; forestry and environmental recycling contractors; mine and quarry operators; port and inland terminal authorities; power stations; and domestic and foreign government agencies. The company was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Astec Industries, Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $38.8M in FY2025, compounding +25.2%/yr from FY2021.
ASTE screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Caterpillar Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Astec Appoints Bill Waltz to Board of Directors
- Astec Industries (ASTE) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
Peer Group
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $952.41 | $307.83 | -68% |
| Deere & Company DE | $597.24 | $187.86 | -69% |
| AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA | kr 336.60 | kr 288.08 | -14% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $126.20 | $94.80 | -25% |
| Epiroc AB EPIA | kr 251.90 | kr 144.14 | -43% |
| Exor N.V EXO | €69.40 | €219.41 | +216% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥18.65 | ¥20.84 | +12% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥8.39 | ¥11.79 | +41% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$41.00 | HK$53.51 | +31% |
| Yutong Bus Co 600066 | ¥32.29 | ¥42.00 | +30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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